The Daily Widget – Thur 9/11 – O-282, M-256 – Missouri, New Hampshire Move Left; North Dakota Switch

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

A nice, big batch of state polls were released yesterday, and although Obama’s record for these polls is 3-8, not much changed overall. Obama gains one electoral vote today, and regains a slight lead in the popular vote (+32,000).

Rasmussen had shown a 10-point lead for McCain in Missouri before the conventions, but just after the RNC convention CNN/Time shows McCain leading in Missouri by only 5 points. This reminds me of Rasmussen’s Ohio polling, as he is the only pollster to show a McCain lead in Ohio since the primaries. His methodology seems questionable in these two states. Here’s how Missouri has been polling since June 1 (see Scale in Section 2 below):


CNN/Time also shows Obama leading by 6 points in New Hampshire. This is a lead beyond the margin of error for Obama, and the new poll moves New Hampshire into the Weak Obama column today. Here’s how New Hampshire has been polling since June 1:


Yesterday, Rasmussen had shown Montana going strong red after previous polling had shown it close there. The same is shown today for North Dakota. A North Dakota poll last week had Obama up by 3, and now Rasmussen shows McCain up by 14 there. Rasmussen polled both states on Monday, just a few days after the end of the RNC convention, so that needs to be considered as well. Here’s how North Dakota has been polling since June 1:


Rasmussen also released a New Mexico poll yesterday showing McCain leading by 2 points after the RNC convention, but it’s doubtful that McCain will hold that lead. Previous polling had Obama up by 13 points in New Mexico during the DNC convention. It’s best to average those two polls.

North Carolina Revisited: As we reported yesterday, Survey USA polled North Carolina with McCain leading by 20 points on Monday. One day later a poll was conducted in North Carolina by Public Policy Polling showing McCain leading by only 4 points. Here’s a quick comparison of the crosstabs from the two polls (I’ll let you draw your own conclusions):

Females: SUSA, McCain +12 … PPP, Obama +3 … 15-point difference
Males: SUSA, McCain +27 … PPP, McCain +14 … 13-point difference
White: SUSA, McCain +44 … PPP, McCain +33 … 11-point difference
Age 18-29: SUSA, McCain +3 … PPP, Obama +15 … 18-point difference
Age 35-49: SUSA, McCain +17 … PPP, McCain +5 … 12-point difference
Age 50-64: SUSA, McCain +22 … PPP, McCain +7 … 15-point difference
Age 65+: SUSA, McCain +36 … PPP, McCain +17 … 19-point difference


2. NEW STATE POLLS


Alabama Obama 35, McCain 55 (AEA/Capital Survey, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Alaska Obama 33, McCain 64 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Michigan Obama 49, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 966 RV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 940 RV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.5, 899 RV)
New Mexico Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 48, Barr 4 (Public Policy Polling, 9/9, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
North Dakota Obama 41, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 920 RV)
West Virginia Obama 39, McCain 44 (Blankenship Enterprises, 9/7, +/- 4.9, 432 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.





4. POPULAR VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.


5. OBAMA’S EIGHTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Eighteen” is the group of 18 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the eighteen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1800 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Eighteen” swing states total from the Obama’s Eighteen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1800.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Eighteen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.


6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

[tekisui]

1. The NC PPP seems closer to reality, IMO.

I hope it is. Now that Barr has officially asked Ron Paul(Do it Ron!) to be his running mate, I am even more hopeful about his ability to siphon votes from mcPOW. In some of the libertarian holds in the West and South.

[phrigndumass]

2. Barr/Paul would be a vote-getter in the Southeast, yes!

That ticket might be popular in Alaska as well, lol ...

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning, phrigndumass!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. Good morning to you!

:donut: :hi: :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Hey-

when is Maine due for a poll. I know it's soon. I can't figure it out. I tried going to fivethiryeight, and I looked at the senate race stuff, but I still couldn't figure it out. :crazy: I'm better off leaving those sites alone and just reading your posts where things are laid out and there are nice explanations and someone to go to for help. :D

[phrigndumass]

6. Should be next week :)

Last poll was conducted on 8/12, and it takes a day or two to release it afterwards.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/me/08-me-pres-ge-mvo.php

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

9. thanks :)

Should have just asked you in the first place!

[mucifer]

7. Phrig, you are depressing me. oy vey.

[phrigndumass]

8. How so? lol :)

It's mostly good news today, even though it's close. We're still in the middle of the RNC bounce, and the pendulum will swing back soon.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[phrigndumass]

10. Off to work kick

:kick: Have a good day

[phrigndumass]

11. Lunch kick

[fight4my3sons]

12. Dinner kick

:)

[Curtland1015]

13. Thanks for the polls!

Great job as usual!

:D