BeyondGeography
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:40 AM
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Poll question: Which red state is most likely to turn blue this year? |
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Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 12:56 AM by BeyondGeography
I'm leaving out Iowa because I think that's a done deal.
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davidinalameda
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:41 AM
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1. New Mexico and Colorado |
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if they don't, we're so screwed
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Indiana_Dem
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:42 AM
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2. Nobody ever counts Indiana for anything. |
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We never get mentioned as in the rust belt, as the midwest, and now not even a red state.
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BeyondGeography
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:43 AM
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Indiana_Dem
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:55 AM
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23. Thank you sir. :) I'm a happy camper now. nt |
Quantess
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #2 |
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Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 12:47 AM by quantessd
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d.amber
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:47 AM
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13. Indiana could flip and that would be great. |
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I lived in the great evil city of Chicago. But worked downtown and knew people who worked there and lived in Indiana..taking the train in to downtown.
There's some bleed over. I wonder how the midwest folk feel about all the talk about the corrupt politics of Chicago?
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Indiana_Dem
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:54 AM
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21. We Dems in IN only wish we had the political machine of Chicago... |
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otherwise I don't hear much. I'm in North Central IN. In the middle of small town nowhere!
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PBS Poll-435
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:44 AM
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Stand and Fight
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:44 AM
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My home state - largely because of the ever increasing population in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located).
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BeyondGeography
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:45 AM
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qwlauren35
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:45 AM
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And we are working our butts off to flip VA. Given that NC is starting to turn blue, I think Virginia will be ours. I've also heard that having a Democratic governor AND Mark Warner (D) running for Senate will definitely activate the Democratic machine in Virginia.
However, I have no idea how much ground is being gained in other states. For example, there is a HUGE effort to flip PA. They are hemmed in with an Obama state and a Hillary state... and I think New Jersey is blue as well. They have 20+ electoral votes, so I'm hoping we can work the miracle there.
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Stand and Fight
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:54 AM
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22. I'm in NOVA... We should have a DU get-together! n/t |
PBS Poll-435
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:45 AM
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MadBadger
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:46 AM
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Arugula Latte
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:49 AM
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15. Yep -- That's looking very good. |
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I actually think New Mexico was blue in 2004, but was stolen.
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abumbyanyothername
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:46 AM
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elleng
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:47 AM
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qwlauren35
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:48 AM
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14. This must be an older poll - Where's VA? |
MadBadger
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:51 AM
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qwlauren35
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:02 AM
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27. Ummm... I don't think the folks in PA know that! |
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All of the information I'm hearing says that PA is not warm to Obama, and if it was blue before, it's not guaranteed to be blue in November.
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Cosmocat
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Thu Sep-18-08 06:01 AM
Response to Reply #27 |
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Went Kerry in 04 and Gore in 00 ...
Just threw Rick Santorum, the third highest ranking R senator out after he spent more on a senate race than anyone in history. D governor in Rendell.
The whole Pa does not like BO thing is a media driven narrative that got WAY overplayed in the 6 week dead period for primaries in the runnup to PA. The whole Hill is the working class hero and BO can't connect with working class meme got started there, and Hill did win the primary, and the media has not let go of it since, saying Pa was a "swing" state, despite the above AND:
There was a recent poll that BO and McCain tied in Pa, but prior to that no other poll had McCain closer than 4 down, and the average of all polls was BO up at least 6 points.
Pa had a MASSIVE influx of new Ds from the primary to now, something like 250,000, and something like 80,000 Rs have turned I or D. LOTS of colleges have been tapped into for BO, the Philly area. Again, Rendell is a strong D governor, and finally, this is the one state where Biden has some electoral juice - his media market is the Philly area, and he was born in Scranton.
I have said this all along, IF BO were to lose PA, it won't be a "swing" it will have been a complete and total washout across the board. Pa is his unless things go VERY, VERY bad.
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Thrill
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:50 AM
Response to Original message |
16. Virginia. I think Warner on the ballot for Senate, will help also |
BeyondGeography
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #16 |
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Had it in the first iteration, but lost it as others were added. Good news is, we have so many ways to change the map.
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Lilith Velkor
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:52 AM
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Beregond2
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:52 AM
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19. VA. I don't consider NM a red state. |
Imagevision
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:56 AM
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24. I've spoken with many repugs and they're pissed off at Bush so Mccain isn't |
NYC_SKP
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Thu Sep-18-08 12:59 AM
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25. Three or more, and more than a small chance of all of the ones in the poll. |
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NC may be the toughest....
:patriot:
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FlyingSquirrel
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:01 AM
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26. Every freakin' last one of 'em. Plus MT, WV and NH |
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But if I have to choose just 3 of the above, I'll go with NM, CO and OH
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unfrigginreal
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:05 AM
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28. I chose 3 CO, NM, NV n/t |
Chulanowa
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:23 AM
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Palin's yutzy dirty laundry is killing her. As it stands, the only reason Alaska isn't already a blue state is due to voter apathy. This shit will get them moving, i think.
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Awsi Dooger
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:26 AM
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30. New Mexico is the only answer |
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It was already blue in the partisan index in 2004, and Kerry would have won with competent voting machinery.
In the 2006 exit poll, New Mexico had 24% self-identified liberals. That's a very strong number and in general would take it out of swing state territory. I won't go that far, but let's just say I'd be shocked if we lost New Mexico, provided Obama stays within about 2 points in the national popular vote.
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27inCali
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:29 AM
Response to Original message |
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Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 01:34 AM by 27inCali
didn't it vote Bush last time around?
And isn't it almost a lock for Obama at this point?
Personally, I think all those states are going to flip, call me crazy, but I think maybe even a few more not on that list.
I honestly think the blowout will be one of the biggest in this countries history.
edit to say: OOPS!!!! just realized we were already calling Iowa a done deal.
I think Chuckie T over at MSNBC is calling New Mexico a done deal.
Nevada or Colorado go, the election is a done deal. (nice)
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Connonym
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:31 AM
Response to Reply #31 |
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Very marginally for W in 2004. But I think it'll be blue in November.
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FKA MNChimpH8R
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:34 AM
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33. NM. Colorado and Indiana |
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The first two because of changing demographics, the latter due because of the horrific job losses in the manufacturing sector.
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quakerboy
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Thu Sep-18-08 01:39 AM
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Both at, plus one of: NV, OH (75% for at least one of the 2)
Plus a reasonable chance of one of: FL, NC, VA, MT (50% for at least one of the 4)
With a realistic, if low, chance in the following states: IN, WV, AK, AZ (25% for at least one of the 4)
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saltpoint
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Thu Sep-18-08 02:15 AM
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35. A case can be made that we carry all the states in your poll. |
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I plan on making it between now and November.
With substantial increases in our majorities in both chambers of the 111th Congress as well.
Indiana is the steepest climb of the states in your poll but as we've seen tonight, Obama is now slightly ahead.
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Sebastian Doyle
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Thu Sep-18-08 02:20 AM
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36. I'd say they're all possible except Florida |
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Between the total Bush Crime Family corruption and the so-called Democrats who despise anything not controlled by the DLC, that state is a lost cause.
New Mexico and Colorado are probably the most likely. Virginia has a good chance. Ohio? Hard to say, because I'm not sure what team Strickland's on, but at least Blackwell isn't there.
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Chrisnreno
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Thu Sep-18-08 02:27 AM
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37. It may be wishful thinking, but I really think |
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we may possibly take all of them this election. IN may be a bit of a stretch imho, but perhaps not this year. If I had to pick three specifically, I would pick NV, NM, and CO.
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flamingdem
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Thu Sep-18-08 03:27 AM
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38. Methinks Nevada, New Mexico, Florida |
amborin
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Thu Sep-18-08 03:45 AM
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a rep from O's campaign, think his name was Tim Burton? or something similar...was NOT very articulate on lou dobbs today
granted, dobbs is bad news
but---this O rep was getting msm coverage and basically squandering it
he tried to explain what O would do to solve the current financial crisis----granted an unfair and impossible question----
but he hemmed and hawed and said 'you know' about 10 times without really saying anything
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CreekDog
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Thu Sep-18-08 03:46 AM
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40. New Mexico is naturally a blue state |
mwooldri
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:27 AM
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41. If things go the way I think they're going... ALL OF THEM. |
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Even NC, my adopted home state.
Mark.
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Borgnine
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Thu Sep-18-08 06:09 AM
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We've had a Democratic governor for nearly a decade and we're about to have all Democratic senators. The youth vote has a real good chance of swinging it for Obama, as will Mark Warner's presence on the ballot.
It's going to be close. There's still a lot of good old boys in this state, but they've been quickly finding themselves and their views irrelevant.
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