Coexist
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:03 PM
Original message |
538: Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection |
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Edited on Thu Sep-18-08 05:06 PM by FLDem5
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/obama-pulls-ahead-in-electoral-college.htmlCharts and graphs are updated. Full polling report coming within the hour. -- Nate Silver at 4:48 PM Drudge Siren and all - I can't wait!
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darius15
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:05 PM
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1. I think 538 (although very good) is a bit McCain friendly in terms of |
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the projections.
So if Obama is winning in 538, you know he's kicking ass.
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Coexist
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:07 PM
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3. Nate is a self-professed Democrat, but following his site as I do |
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his weighting is conservative - he discusses it a lot. He weights pollsters accuracy in his stats. I trust him a lot.
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Teaser
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:32 PM
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8. Nate is a Dem and a friend of Kos |
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His model is very conservative. It is basically a very complicated regression model, using current polls to estimate the likelihood of a win in November based on a how outcomes have tracked polls in various time periods before previous elections. It is designed to be very cautious around new polls. It doesn't "believe" a new poll until other polls back that one up. So changes can lag a bit.
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PerfectSage
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:07 PM
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2. Big change from yesterday's 538 projection |
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I smell an asskicking landslide.
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
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Coexist
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:08 PM
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Schulzz
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:08 PM
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5. And Intrade has him up in Ohio for the first time in months |
Coexist
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:12 PM
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6. In Ohio?! Wow, Plouffe said Florida is better bet than Ohio. |
Born_A_Truman
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Thu Sep-18-08 05:28 PM
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7. Thanks! I was waiting for this. |
Coexist
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Thu Sep-18-08 06:01 PM
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nutsnberries
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Thu Sep-18-08 06:41 PM
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10. that's the first thing I checked when I came home! |
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:woohoo:
i've been waiting for this! i like blueberry pie so much better than cherry pie. :9
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JimWis
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Thu Sep-18-08 07:06 PM
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11. Much better than when I checked it mid afternoon - how often |
Coexist
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Thu Sep-18-08 07:29 PM
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12. as often as he gets a slew of polls, I think. |
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Sun May 05th 2024, 10:25 PM
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