The 269 electoral tie scenario is plausible.

[usregimechange]

On Nov. 5, the presidential election winds up in a electoral-college tie, 269-269, the Democrat-controlled House picks Sen. Barack Obama as president, but the Senate, with former Democrat Joe Lieberman voting with Republicans, deadlocks at 50-50, so Vice President Dick Cheney steps in to break the tie to make Republican Sarah Palin his successor...

Absurd? Possibly, and there is not complete agreement among constitutional experts on whether a newly elected Congress or the currently sitting House and Senate would make the decision.

http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/sep/23/an-electoral-college-doomsday/

I would love it if this actually happened in one sense because as soon as Obama took office he could fire Palin and replace her with Biden.

[BlooInBloo]

1. Bullfuckingshit. It has near 0 probability.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[usregimechange]

4. Did we have those predictors in 2004?

[stevenleser]

5. Well, I HOPE it doesnt, but it looks like a possibility right now

fivethirtyeight's analysis notwithstanding, electoral-vote.com's analysis of polls shows an only one state difference from what would give 269-269.

[BlooInBloo]

8. (facepalm)

[joshcryer]

9. About the same probablity as a brokered convention.

Note how a 1% chance of something happening is worth discussing but something with a higher degree of probablity is not!

[usregimechange]

13. Ok, but I didn't use the word probability.

[BlooInBloo]

15. (facepalm) 'nuff said.

[BlooInBloo]

14. I never said, suggested, or implied that it wasn't worth discussing....

But calling an event "more than plausible" when it's probability of occurring is around 1% is just fucking lying.

[usregimechange]

17. I changed the title but accusing me of lying is a tad over the top.

[BlooInBloo]

21. It's still laughably false. "Theoretically possible but extremely unlikely" would be true.

[usregimechange]

26. So my motive has changed from lying to being laughably false?

I am becoming more ethical as we speak. :dilemma:

[joshcryer]

24. Sure it's worth discussing if you're in to sensationalism.

90% of GDP threads are in to sensationalism.

[BlooInBloo]

27. Note that neither did I suggest that it *was* worth discussing either. :P

[onenote]

2. there is not complete agreement among constitutional experts on whether a newly elected Congress or

the currently sitting House and Senate would make the decision"

What a load of crap. There is no ambiguity. The decision would have to be made by the newly elected Congress, since the existence of a tie can't be known until the votes are counted and they aren't counted until after the new Congress is seated.

Saying that there isn't complete agreement on this is like saying there isn't complete agreement on whether the earth is round. Sure, some flat earthers still think its not. But they're idiots.

[usregimechange]

6. Well it is the washington times...

[Matariki]

3. Is light blue 'undecided'?

Because no way is Washington State going to McCain.

[usregimechange]

7. No, ignore the shades of blue, CNN has it defaulted to lean Obama which will soon change

[CoffeeCat]

10. After tonight? Are you serious?

This election is OVER. McCain is DONE.

Obama was ahead 5-10 points in all of the new polls.

After tonight's soap opera, McCain will be lucky if Obama only gains 5 points from this.

I'm not saying that we can rest on our laurels. We can't. They'll steal enough votes
to equal 2-4 percent.

However, there's no way McCain can win now.

McCain pulled this stunt just to get the Presidential debate postponed, so they could cancel
the veep debate. Now, that won't work. The veep debate will go on, and it will only sink the
McPalin campaign further into the sea.

It's all a downward spiral from here.

McCain has lost all credibility. He looks like a fool. Sure the die-hard nutjob Republicans
will tout him until the end of time. However, the majority of voters will not support McCain
now.

[book_worm]

11. I truly doubt it. Obama will win rather easily I believe.

[usregimechange]

12. I said it was more than plausible not likely. I posted because I thought it was interesting.

[DiamondKrosse]

16. I doubt it,

because if Obama loses New Hampshire, a state that should be for him, he's lost the election. There is no way he loses New Hampshire but wins Colorado. New Hampshire has voted Dem 3 out of the last 4 elections, Colorado 1.

[usregimechange]

18. Colorado has a lot of young folks, NH at national average for 65+

[DiamondKrosse]

30. younger voters don't come out

anywhere close to as much as older ones do. Even if they come out, they need to come out in force, and there is no way to guess this. Otherwise, CO is a pretty Republican state. NH is a Democratic state. If younger voters came out in force in a state like CO to put Obama over the top, that means just enough came out in NH plus the fact its inherently much more liberal. He only wins CO with NH

[usregimechange]

20. dupe

[Heather MC]

19. NO fucking way McLOSERs is taking my State VA

this is a pipe dream

[depakid]

33. Viginia requires a 9% swing from 2004

Possible, but not probable.

[krawhitham]

22. so what if they do pick Palin

Just impeach her ass for incompetents when the new class takes over

[usregimechange]

25. Isn't it more simple than that? Can't Obama just replace his VP at will?

[NYC Liberal]

29. No, because the VP is every bit as elected as the President

BUT, what he COULD do is simply say "Ok, you're VP. Now the ONLY role you will have in this administration is the only one specifically stated in the Constitution, that is, presiding over the Senate and breaking ties if need be. That's IT!"

I.e., he could keep her out of meetings and out of the White House, essentially not have anything to do with her and force her out that way.

[Statistical]

36. No.

No.

first I think this is unlikely. Second even more unlikely Palin becomes the VPOTUS.

IF (big IF) she is elected by the Senate then she can't be replaced.

That would be like saying if Reid doesn't like Bush can he have him replaced, or if Bush doesn't like a SCOTUS justice can he have him/her replaced.

However the VP according to the constitution has virtually no power.
Obama could simply not let her do anything (except very few things outlined in constitution).

[usregimechange]

23. Jesus you guys are a tad sensitive.

[Hissyspit]

28. Everyone in GD-Presidential is mean.

Except Frenchie Cat when she is posting hot pictures of Barack.

:D

[Clio the Leo]

31. It is also plausable that I would French kiss Karl Rove....

.... however, it is HIGHLY unlikely.

[Secret_Society]

32. It is very plausible

538.com had a post yesterday explaining the scenario. It is almost a certainty that Obama will easily reach 269. There are many options to get that next electoral vote (Ohio, Virginia, NH, Nevada,Missouri, NC) but they are not polling as well as the states that will bring him to 269. If his national numbers take a hit, the 269 states should hold but it's getting to 270 that matters.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-923.html

[Drunken Irishman]

34. The thing here is that generally the nation goes one way or another.

If Obama wins Colorado and New Mexico, especially by solid margins, it's likely he pulls another swing state, whether it's Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Florida or Nevada.

At least, that's how I see it.

[stevenleser]

37. Remember that they said all kinds of things were highly unlikely

like the popular vote going one way and the electoral vote going the other.

Of course, in truth, they didn't, BUT...

[Drunken Irishman]

38. Actually, the popular vote/ec thing was pretty big late in the campaign.

Because state polling was not meshing with national polling. However, it was reversed. In fact, the night before the election, Gore trailed in nearly every national poll, yet was leading in the key battle ground states. So the media pushed the belief Gore would lose the popular vote and win the electoral college, leaving both campaigns defending what would ironically become the exact opposite of what they thought they would be dealing with.

[fujiyama]

35. This looks like a possibility

considering Obama looks like he may pick up NM, CO, and IA. NH is all over the place, some showing McCain with a lead, others with an Obama lead.

It's all about NH and VA. A VA win would be especially sweet and would likely indicate an early night, because it's a state that hasn't voted Dem since '64. Granted, he could still lose MI and PA after winning VA, but I view that as very unlikely. I think he'll make a clean sweep of the great lakes states and it would be strange for Obama to be doing so well in much of the NE, midwest, West Coast, Mountain West, but not taking NH. But stranger things have happened.

Even if it's tied, he'd have to take the popular vote to persuade some dark-red state Dems from voting for McCain because some are complete absolute cowards. I hope it doesn't come to that. I don't want to really deal with all that drama. '00 was enough.

[RBInMaine]

39. FLORIDA IS TIED AND VA AND NC ARE IN PLAY BIGTIME !!

[RBInMaine]

40. ALSO OH AND NH ARE GOING TO GO DEM. BARACK WILL WIN !!