New Gallup - tied at 46%

[gateley]

Obama down 1, McCain up 2. I don't get it.

[tekisui]

1. I don't get, I don't believe it.

[madmax]

6. Don't believe it either

If it's true we're a nation of psychotic morons. One day up next day down? Bullshit.

[onenote]

32. no, it means that the poll is in an inexact snapshot

and that the race remains closer than a lot of people here want to admit. Obama is undoubtedly leading, he's not running away with it either. At least not yet.

[dennis4868]

38. I agree with you 100%

but your opinion is in the minority here, especially when Obama has a bad Gallup poll day.

[FatDave]

44. You're correct, but Gallup seems to be the odd man out more often than not these days.

All week they've had it tightening while other polls have shown it widening.

[dennis4868]

52. I don't think so...

before today Gallup has had it with an Obama 3 point lead like the other national polls....

[musicblind]

51. you are correct onenote

[SoonerPride]

2. People are scared and they prefer the devil they know to the one they don't

That's my only guess.

Or the polls are wrong.

[Alhena]

5. C'mon, people- it's one poll. RCP average is Obama by 3

[firedupdem]

3. since just yesterday? they are full of shit! n/t

[Alhena]

4. Nothing to get- you average all the polls and it's Obama by around 3

don't sweat individual polls, just like you don't celebrate when ABC poll shows Obama by 9.

[gateley]

10. I know that -- and understand it, but I can't help myself

from checking out Gallup because it's so 'user friendly' and I love watching Obama take the lead.

And I do celebrate the ABC poll - it's just encouraging to see good news. :)

But in the big picture, you DUers have taught me and reassured me that polls are not the be-all-and-end-all.

That being said, I honestly would have thought that Obama would have gained these past few days - he's been fabulous, and McCain has been a wreck.

[WI_DEM]

7. So what? it's one day. Calm down.

[gateley]

17. I'm calm (thanks to all the DUers who have explained why polls aren't the

Word of God), but it's still nice to see Obama moving ahead.

[dennis4868]

8. I don't get it either....

WTF are people thinking. What changed peoples minds so that it is now tied?

McCain has done nothing to motivate anyone to vote for him in the past few days. And Obama has done nothing to make people change their vote from him to McCliar.

Maybe his damn gimmick is working? Would the poll already cover this?

I think FOX and the rest of the media will have a field day with this.

[FloridaGrl]

9. It's Palin all over again

that's why I don't trust these polls. They are going to try to say McCain has gained the upper hand on the economy because of his chicken crap move yesterday.

[Politics_Guy25]

16. The race will not break until the debates

Until then, we will have a tie. Much like Reagan-Carter 1980.

[FloridaGrl]

23. I have watched the media and these polling

organization try to affect the overcome of elections over and over. I am very skeptical, let's hope it does break in the polls after these debates.

[beachmom]

11. Don't trust the polls in any exact way. I still think Obama will win,

because overall, he seems to be ahead most of the time, or they are tied. The only time McCain was ahead was due to a convention bounce. Without bounces, it is usually tied or Obama slightly ahead. Obama also has a superior ground game.

[Joe Chi Minh]

29. He has the only ground game. Viability and all that.

[fugop]

12. It's about a dropoff

Gallup said in its analysis that it wasn't a particularly big night last night, it's just been some strong Obama days dropped off and things were inching back together anyway.

[TwilightGardener]

13. There will always be one or two polls that go the other way, which is why

it's the whole picture that counts. I expect Obama to be back up in this one pretty soon.

[dennis4868]

14. I am sure Bill Clinton...

can take some credit for McCain moving up in the polls....thanks Bill!

[marlakay]

15. well, i listened to 30 min of cnn yesterday in the car

since i can't get other news stations except fox on sirius and sirius left wasn't current news. and it was lou dobbs standing up for mccain along with other pundants talking about how he was quitting the campaign to help the country.

i was yelling at the radio, but imagine all you hear is people like that? people are scared of this crisis.

[Zynx]

18. First: Statistical noise. Second: These things always take a few days to show up.

[Sodan]

21. Well this page is still uplifting

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Blue, blue, blue...

[Sugarcoated]

19. Not buying this either

All the other recent national's are different, this is obviously an outlier.

But I'm sure the panicky types and low post-count trolls will do their thing. :+

[NYC_SKP]

20. Proof that these polls are McStupid...

...and unreliable except when taken over at least three days.

It'll turn.

[GrizzlyMan]

22. I don't need to get it

Gallup is part of the corporate media desperate to create a roller coaster, horse race narrative. Their polls are completely made up. If they get numbers back from their survey that don't fit the narrative, they make them fit the narrative. Pay it no mind. It's all BS.

[dennis4868]

27. interesting take....

but what evidence do you have to back up your claim?

[GrizzlyMan]

31. Common sense

And gut feeling. How could anyone possibly think this race is tied? I'd be more apt to believe pigs could fly. But regardless of whether you believe Gallup or not, the media needs the horse race narrative. It fuels their ratings which fuels their ad sales which puts money in the pockets of their CEOs.

[Joe Chi Minh]

33. I think you're wasting your breath here.

[leveymg]

24. McBS

[BigDDem]

25. It must be Bill Clinton's fault....like everything else

[npincus]

26. WTF?

[Drunken Irishman]

28. I love many of these replies.

A lot of people saying they don't buy it. But if tomorrow Obama moves back up +2, they'll be dancing in the streets.

[writes3000]

39. LOL, your reply is as predictable as their reactions.

Like clockwork.

[Drunken Irishman]

41. Well I have to be.

Every time Gallup shows Obama up, the poll is right on the money, but the second he's slipping, someone's fudging the numbers!

Or maybe it's just statistical noise. I never believed Obama would sustain a big lead like he had last week.

[cosmodem]

54. LOL and so true.

[RiverStone]

30. Never underestimate the stupidity of the electorate

Remember, Shrub got elected in round 2 - after stealing the election in round 1.

I'm still confident Obama will win, but this needs to remind us that not for a second can we afford to get complacent. I can't fathom why Obama is not ahead %75 - %25, but I don't watch reality TV either.

[Joe Chi Minh]

No. The second one was stolen too.

[mvd]

34. Gallup's too volatile

While I don't trust Rasmussen, his polls are at least pretty stable. 3 out of 4 tracking polls still are going our way.

[OwnedByFerrets]

35. Utter Horse Hockie.....Dont believe a word of it....nt

[MarjorieG]

36. Could media have confused people by pushing McCain as leader with a plan meme?

[treestar]

37. Expect more McDumb Drama

It obviously works. First Failin, now this.

[tpi10d]

40. we're up a little in ras

But this election looks like its shaping up to be within a couple percent...unless the debates are a game changer. I just donated another $100 today...

We have a good chance, but we have to work at it!

[JimWis]

42. Polls are BS. All the signs are there that we are winning -

Obama has larger crowds at speeches, gets more audience cheers on any tv show where both candidates names come up, McCain getting beat up by the press, more statements coming out from Republican lawmakers that they are for Obama (or so I see posts like that here), state polls show higher for Obama, electoral votes in Obama's favor, many posts here from people who's republican Friends are coming over to vote for Obama - I think we have it in the bag. Having said that though - I still sneak a peak at the polls everyday.

[budkin]

43. Total and utter bullshit.

I don't believe Gallup... ever.

[BlueInPhilly]

45. Now I can honestly say

that this Gallup poll is screwed up. There is NO WAY this is accurate, at all!!! Not after what McCain pulled yesterday! NO WAY!

If I were the statistician on this project, I would seriously seriously SERIOUSLY question the randomness of my sample, its normal distribution. Really. This really shows a self-selective population.

[maxsolomon]

46. 3 DAY ROLLING AVERAGE

so it's M-T-W combined.

again, WTF. the 3 most out-of-touch days a presidential candidate has ever had in my lifetime, and he moves up?

possiblities:
1. statistical noise
2. polling pool is not accurate - oversampling republicans
3. americans are dumb as rocks
4. all of the above

[formernaderite]

47. did I hear Zogby has McCain up?

ok folks...whacky week...the polls are reflecting this. Wait for the debates....whenever they start.

[Bucky]

48. poll is pre-chickenshit suspension. plus....

:banghead:

[Lex]

49. And Rasmassen has Obama up by 2 in NC.

Lots of weirdness.

[Wapsie B]

50. Not that daily polls mean anything, but Gallup's workplace survey is equally laughable.

[qanda]

53. No doubt that McCain's stunt grabbed attention and, more than likely, the momentum

But people will eventually wake up and see it for the political stunt that it is.