Context for the great news on the ground in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, etc.

[Stop Cornyn]

If you can forget about McCain's gimmicky debate stunt or Bill's tepid talk show performance for a moment, you may want to consider this ground breaking campaign Obama's running:

In Colorado, which Kerry lost by 5% and Gore lost by 8%, we're way up in all the polls (average lead over 5%, some polls show a 9% lead):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html



In Indiana, which Kerry lost by a whopping 21% and Gore lost by 16%, the recent polls show a very tight race -- within the polls' margin of error -- and one recent poll shows us winning by 3%:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html



In Iowa, which Kerry lost, the recent polls show us up by 10% or more with one recent poll showing a 14% lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_mccain_vs_obama-209.html#polls



In New Mexico, which Kerry lost, the most recent polls show us leading by 7% or more and one recent poll has us winning by 11%:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html



In Virginia, which Kerry and Gore both lost by 8%, the most recent polls are all tight -- within the polls' margin of error -- except for one recent poll which gives us a 6% lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html



In New Hampshire, which Gore lost and Kerry (the Senator from the neighboring state) barely won by 1%, the average of the recent polls shows Obama winning and doing even better than Kerry did with a recent poll giving us a 6% lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_mccain_vs_obama-195.html




While this is no time to ease up because McCain-Palin is a mean-spirited beast that will tell any lie when it is cornered, it is also not a time to panic.

[OKNancy]

1. I thought the latest New Hampshire polls were going McCain's way

NH doesn't have too many electors, but still, it would be a nice win.

[Stop Cornyn]

2. The 10 most recent NH polls are O+1%, M+2%, O+6%, M+2%, O+6%, O+1%, O+4, O+3, O+11%, O+5%.

I'd rather have our numbers than theirs.

[Stop Cornyn]

3. Also consider North Carolina which Kerry lost by 12% and Gore lost by 13% and Obama leads in the

most recent poll, and all of the last four polls show the race either tied or with Obama up 2% or down only 1%.

In the Senate race, McDole is down by 3% and 5% in the two most recent polls.

[Yanez Houston Jordan]

4. Good polling news in Michigan. too. NBC Today touts a poll with the race tied and alludes to "other

polling" without mentioning that the three "other polls" which were conducted during the same time as the one poll which showed a tie in Michigan all show up Obama WAY up by 13%, 10%, and 8%. It's bullshit that NBC should mention the only outlier which conveys a false horserace.

[Stop Cornyn]

5. Some people forget that Kerry won Michigan by only 3%. It is not the bastion of unions it once was