From 538: One excellent pollster predicts a much larger Obama victory

[fiorello]

This may be very good news!

Quoting...

Ann Selzer, as you may know, is among the best pollsters in the business. In fact, we have her firm, Selzer & Co., rated as the single best pollster out of the 32 companies that we evaluated. Polling for the Des Moines Register, she nailed both the Democratic and Republican outcomes in the Iowa caucus, races that other pollsters had a great deal of trouble with.

Selzer's polls, as you also may know, have tended to have significantly better numbers for Barack Obama than most other agencies. In Indiana, for instance, Selzer has the race at Obama +3, whereas most other polling firms show John McCain with a (small) lead. In Michigan, while several polls have shown Obama with a fairly large lead, Selzer's poll for the Detroit Free Press pegs the race at Obama +13, the largest Obama lead in any current poll of the state.

Clearly this is not random variance; the Obama "house effect" is highly statistically significant. So I asked Selzer what she might be doing differently from other pollsters.

Selzer thinks that a lot of pollsters may be undercounting the youth vote, and potentially also the black vote....

Selzer is taking a big gamble on this election, as her results have tended to stand out from those of other pollsters. But she is meticulous in how she does her polling, and Selzer's polls have not had any particular partisan lean in previous election cycles. Don't be surprised if her gamble pays off again.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/ann-selzer-on-youth-minority-turnout.html

[PBS Poll-435]

1. This is a good post. K/R

I like Selzer's view.

[Robbins]

2. Indiana

Imagne on Election night Instead of It being called quickly for Mccain.The networks have It too
close to call.That alone would panic Republicans.Many polls underpoll Black support.Obama will get
90/91 percent of blacks In All states there are Blacks living(by the way this Is slightly more than
the previous higher Black voter getter.Who was this? Al Gore) now It could be higher.It depends If
the Conservtive Blacks go for Obama.

We also hear so much about those Dems not willing to vote for Obama but the truth Is he also
gets Some Republican support.In PA Survey USA has Obama getting 17 percent of Republicans VS
Mccain's 19 Percent of Democrats.

[Strawman]

3. I read this this morning. Excellent news.

I love Nate's site.