LiberadorHugo
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Fri Sep-26-08 11:13 AM
Original message |
270ToWin doesn't use a sensible model for its simulation... |
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Edited on Fri Sep-26-08 11:16 AM by LiberadorHugo
I've literally had elections where Louisiana goes Democratic and Maine goes Republican. If LA votes Dem, Obama will win at least 350 EVs. I just did another won where WA and IA went GOP, but Obama won anyway with NC, VA, and MO. I think the model is too state-centric and needs some fudge-factor to account for national trends.
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Upton
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Fri Sep-26-08 11:15 AM
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1. Optimism is nice but Obama is not going to win 350 electoral votes |
LiberadorHugo
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Fri Sep-26-08 11:17 AM
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2. I never said he will... |
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All I said is that I run a simulation on 270 to win where Obama won Louisiana but lost a few safe states, giving McCain a nice victory.
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Nicholas D Wolfwood
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Fri Sep-26-08 11:19 AM
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3. It's not much of a model |
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It just takes current polling and assigns the percentage of times a candidate wins based on that. For instance, if Obama is leading in Massachusetts 85-12, McCain will come up as winning Massachusetts 12% of all times you simulate it. Way too simplistic, in my opinion, and that's what causes wonky results.
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LiberadorHugo
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Fri Sep-26-08 11:21 AM
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I've never had Obama lose MA and I think he's lost NY once.
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Nicholas D Wolfwood
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Fri Sep-26-08 11:38 AM
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5. That was just an example. |
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You're not the brightest bulb, are you?
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skipos
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Fri Sep-26-08 12:06 PM
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