Is it even technically possible for Palin to drop out? I don't think so...

[BzaDem]

just because some people have already voted for McCain/Palin. If McCain switched, the votes for McCain/Palin probably couldn't be transferred to McCain/New VP.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

1. you wrongly assume that rules apply to the GOP. they don't

they can do whatever they want. Always.

[Pab Sungenis]

2. Here's the way it works.

There are precedents. If Palin drops out, the RNC nominates her replacement, although they'll probably anoint whomever McCain picks. Because the parties control who has their placement on the ballots, she will be replaced on those ballots with the new candidate.

The votes for McCain/Palin will automatically transfer to the new McCain ticket because people are NOT voting directly for President and Vice-President, but for Electors pledged to a ticket.

The RNC will direct all electors pledged to McCain/Palin to vote for the new VP candidate instead of Palin.

Worst case scenario is that some of them balk and still vote for Palin for VP. That does not affect the Presidential choice. If McCain were to win the election, but Palin's replacement not have 270 votes because some still voted for Palin, then it would go to the Senate. It would not affect the Presidential choice at all.

[Citizen Jane]

8. Interesting

So, would it be possible for the Senate to stick McCreepy with a Democratic veep if that last scenario happened?

[Pab Sungenis]

12. Yes, it could.

The Senate votes for VP when no VP candidate gets a majority of votes. It would be the new Senate sworn in after January 3rd that would vote, and each Senator has one vote.

In this scenario, it would be very possible that we would have McCain as President and Biden as Vice President.

[Motown_Johnny]

3. They will find a way. Romney would change his name to Sarah Palin if he had to

[Cresent City Kid]

4. Worst case scenario

If McCain wins with Palin and dies in office, should we impeach her preemptively?

[frickaline]

5. anything is possible but I think it might make the McCain campaign strikingly similar

to the McGovern 1972 campaign. And we all know how that ended up ....

I think he's between a rock and a hard place. No matter what he does now, this VP choice will sink him.

[cojoel]

9. timing was different in 1972

Eagleton was replaced shortly after the convention and the convention was much earlier, well before the ballot submission deadlines. At this point the election is just over 5 weeks away and the voting has already started in some states.

Nevertheless, she no doubt could be replaced, with the results being at least as disastrous as in 1972.

[saltpoint]

6. So far as I know, there's no procedure referenced in Party rules for

replacement of a nominee once she or he is nominated.

My guess is that a cadre of hyper-corrupt GOP heavyweights would converge in a hotel meeting room with McCain and his staff to select a replacement in the event Palin stepped down.

At this point, though, it's increasingly clear that any replacement headline would be disastrous in and of itself, but if that were the matter at hand, anyone who would theoretically help McCain would be likely to turn him down for the job.

It would wind up being some hack like Mark Racicot or Haley Barbour. I don't think Ridge, Hutchison, or Portman would take it.

[MindMatter]

7. Good point. Who would want that gig right now?

Consider two scenarios:

1) McCain wins. In that case, anybody would want the gig because there is a very good chance that McCain will die in office making you the President. Worst case, McCain survives in some fashion and you are in pole position for 2012 or 2016.

2) McCain loses. That's the problem. With such a last-minute change, it is most likely that McCain will lose and probably lose badly. Do you want to be associated with that? Some people will think you were an anchor on the ticket.

Intentionally joining a losing ticket has not been a great career move. Let's look at all the losing VPs since 1960.

1930: Henry Cabot Lodge
1964: William E Miller
1968: Edmund Muskie
1972: Sargent Shriver
1976: Bob Dole
1980: Walter Mondale
1984: Geraldine Ferraro
1988: Lloyd Bentsen
1992: Dan Quayle
1996: Jack Kemp
2000: John Kerry
2004: John Edwards

Dole, Mondale, and Kerry went on to lead their ticket, but they all lost. The rest were never heard from again.

Not a single losing VP in that era ever became President. So if you think the ticket is going to lose, and you want to run on the top of the ticket in 2012, you don't take this gig. In short, there is no upside to associating yourself with failure.

[saltpoint]

10. Kerry was a shortlist finalist for Gore in 2000 but Gore went with

Lieberman, but apart from that your list is a strong example of how things don't tend to work out.

The guess I have is that Palin will stay, even if she is vacuous. If the campaign tries to dump her, there's also the chance that she will refuse to go. That would be a GREAT develpment in a way because the media would close in on that story real fast and real hard. It would be disastrous for McCain.

If she does "voluntarily" decide to leave for "family reasons," the best McCain could do was some marginal GOP hack like Haley Barbour or Mark Racicot.

[MindMatter]

13. Ahhhhhrgh. Sorry about that

I guess I have been trying to repress any thoughts of JoeMentum.

But again, back to the main point, who would take this gig?

Huckabee would 'cause he's crazy enough to say it is all God's will for him.

Romney would be a fool to take it. It would hurt his chances in 2012.

Rudy would, but that would just give the ticket TWO crazy old nut jobs.

Show me a scenario -- with real names -- that would give McCain a better chance of winning. I don't there is one.

[saltpoint]

14. I agree -- McCain's chances are increasingly less the more disruption

there is in his campaign.

And the wheels are already flying off of the thing.

Did you happen to catch Frank Rich's column in this morning's NYTIMES? He lashes McCain about as hard as I've ever seen him lash anybody. And I don't think McCain's people can refute Rich's claims.

[book_worm]

11. Kerry was never a VP nominee.