The Bradley Effect? Oh, reeeeally?

[Honeycombe8]

I get tired of hearing the pundits talk about the Bradley Effect, as if there is conclusively such a thing. As if it is a fact, an event that actually happened. As far as I know, there is no evidence whatsoever of a Bradley Effect. Now, that doesn't mean that it didn't occur. But it does mean that it may not have occurred at all...the Bradley Effect.

What "the Effect" seems to be, mainly, is a group of white men sitting around a table trying to come up with a reason why a poll was wrong in saying the black candidate would win. We all know instances of polls being wrong, when a white candidate didn't win, right? Well, I don't hear them talking about The Kerry Effect, or The Gore Effect, of The Dewey Effect.

I personally doubt that the Bradley Effect ever existed, or at least that it involved enough people to lose the race for him. It's the premise that a bunch of white people in CA said they'd vote for Bradley, an Af. American candidate, but either changed their minds in the voting booth, supposedly deciding at the last minute that they couldn't vote for an Af. American, or...they lied to the pollsters because they wouldn't/couldn't admit they were racist.

As for the white people lying...I'm from the deep south. There, the folks have no problem saying they won't vote for a black man. No problemo. They are actually MORE inclined to lie and tell other white people that of course they are going to vote for the white candidate, and then secretly vote for the black one.

Then there's the obvious. If the people don't want to admit they are racist, it would be far easier just to make up a reason to vote for the white guy, instead of going thru the dance of saying they're going to vote for the black guy. Even if a racist can't admit his bigotry to himself, I doubt he would be inclined to vote for the black candidate to begin with, because he would have an instinctive aversion to it.

It just doesn't make sense to me. And like I said, I'm not aware of any evidence of it (I'm sure someone will correct me on this, if I'm mistaken about that. But then...someone else's "evidence" I may not consider to be "evidence").

I wonder if McSame's crowd is hoping for The Bradley Effect. If they are, I think they'll be disappointed. But I wish the pundits would quit talking about it, as if it's a PROVEN "effect," when it's not.

[Whalestoe]

1. There is no Bradley Effect... there is only the Reverse Bradley Effect...

Or what will become known as the Obama Effect: when a great candidate wins a landslide victory, despite the color of his skin.

It's all bullshit. IMO.

[BlooInBloo]

2. Or, alternatively, for those who prefer actual studies over ignorant pontification....

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/26/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/

[Honeycombe8]

3. I KNEW someone would have some factual info about this. DU posters are the best. Thx!

I'm passing that article on to a friend of mind who is worried about this.