State polls combined - huge Obama bounce especially in state polls

[grantcart]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/morning_status_update_for_929.php


This graph from pollster.com shows how the state polls are graphed out.

Blue and Swing states are going up but McCain is losing ground in his red states. Since he is actually gaining in some of the reddest states it means that some traditional red states like Indiana and West Virginia.




This shows how the state polls combined are much higher than the national polls



Battleground states show major problems ahead for McCain -

[amborin]

1. Fabulous! But--- let's

fight as if we're 20 down

let's win by a huge landslide

we need a wide margin in any case, to override the bradley effect and possible election fraud

we need to keep acting from our position of strength to shape the discourse

let's keep mccain and the rethugs constantly in a dog hole

[13 Hawks]

2. The trouble with the national polls . . .

is that they don't know who to take into consideration two
things:

a) The huge increase in voter registration that is leaning
Democratic.
b) The shrinking Republican base and its rural vote.

As a result, they stick to an historically, conservative ratio
which shows the race so close.

I had a couple from Wisconsin come into my store recently and
they told me it's Obama by seven points in their state!

[grantcart]

4. that is correct and traditionally newly registered voters don't necessarily

have a good record of voting so there is a historical reason to be ambivalent.

It is new ground for them


welcome to DU

[rainbow4321]

7. Realistically I know TX is not in play here but

I cannot wait to see out turnout stats.

Just to give a local example: In 2004, my county had just over 5,000 Dem votes on primary day. In 2008, we had over 70,000 go out and vote during the primaries!! There have been HUGE voter registration drives SINCE the primaries...23,000 new voters have registered in my county alone.

Having volunteered for some of those local ("nonpartisan") drives and meeting the people signing up for the first time/updating their card information/asking general voting process questions...they are NOT taking time out at our table because of McCain.

At the drive I volunteered at this weekend, in front of a local supercenter, we had 185 people stop by and fill out voter registration cards. All in just a 7 hour timeframe. And these drives are EVERYwhere..coffee shops, major events (TX state fair, Ozzfest, large festivals, grocery stores, supercenters, clubs). Thinking of this being done on a statewide level is amazing!! I cannot imagine how many new voters have registered. Then there are the not so new voters who are actually motivated to get out and vote this time around!



Multiply this by 50 states and we are most likely looking at a landslide for Obama!

[Jane Austin]

3. Hi, GC:

I always read your posts, so could you clarify your second paragraph, please?

Thankewverrymuch!

[grantcart]

5. Thank you

It can best be seen in phrigndumass' daily widget great chart:



The McCain states are either going right to solid McCain or left towards McCain

He has almost no "weak McCain" states.

The really really red states are moving redder and everything else is moving towards Obama

[Jane Austin]

6. Thanks for the explanation. n/t