Barack Obama's Team Believes He Can Win by a Landslide

[babylonsister]

Barack Obama's Team Believes He Can Win by a Landslide

By Tim Shipman, The Telegraph (UK). Posted October 1, 2008.

Obama's senior aides believe he is on course for a landslide victory over McCain and will comfortably exceed most current electoral vote projections.


Their optimism, which is said to be shared by the Democratic candidate himself, is based on information from private polling and on faith in the powerful political organization he has built in the key swing states.

Insiders say that Mr Obama's apparent calm through an unusually turbulent election season is because he believes that his strength among first time voters in several key states has been underestimated, both by the media and by the Republican Party.

Mr Obama has come under fire from within Democratic ranks over his message and his tactics. Critics say he has failed to connect with the blue-collar workers seen as crucial to winning the election, and too reluctant to make direct attacks on Mr McCain.

But his aides are convinced that he has a strong chance of winning no fewer than nine states won by George W.Bush in the closely contested 2000 election, including former Republican strongholds like North Carolina, Virginia and even Indiana, which have not voted Democrat for a generation.

David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, said last week that Obama had "a lot of opportunity" in states which Mr Bush won four years ago.

But in private briefings in Washington, a member of Mr Obama's inner circle of policy advisers went much further in spelling out why the campaign's working assumptions far exceed the expectations of independent observers.

"Public polling companies and the media have underestimated the scale of new Democratic voters registration in these states," the campaign official told a friend. "We're much stronger on the ground in Virginia and North Carolina than people realize. If we get out the vote this may not be close at all."

more...

http://www.alternet.org/election08/101017/barack_obama%27s_team_believes_he_can_win_by_a_landslide/?page=entire

[billyoc]

1. They can see that major media outlets are picking up the voter disenfranchisement story.

Otherwise, it would probably be a squeaker.

[izzie]

2. Funny I never feel like any one is going to win big.

I do try to look at all sides and end up on the fence every time and just end up waiting to the day after we vote. I usually see the glass half full in most things but I am so un-sure when we get to voting.

[democrattotheend]

3. Stories like this are not helpful

They feed into the whole "arrogance" meme that the Republicans had some success using against Obama over the summer. Plus, overconfidence might cause the campaign to make some mistakes, and if outside groups think the presidential race is in the bag, they will pull some resources and put them into down-ballot, which could end up hurting Obama.

[babylonsister]

5. I think a bit of optimism goes a long way. Also, the spin the media

is in isn't helpful. If they continue to insist this race is so close, what's to prevent them from stealing it? If it becomes common knowledge, which imo is slowly happening, that Obama is leading by a wide margin, I think it less likely that the rethugs will think they can play around with the numbers.

[TornadoTN]

7. The "landslide" mantra is a double-edge sword, one that I prefer not to buy into

Landslide talk is all well and good for morale for people that have always been in your camp and for your staff.

On the other hand, talk of a landslide could cause many people to stay at home, no to mention the youth and new voter segments. People get caught up in the talk and say "well, it's ok, he's going to win anyway" and next you find yourself in a much closer race and we all know a .5 to 2 point swing could cost us some states.

There's also something to be said for letting this lull us into a false sense of security and that's when mistakes are made.


There's no harm in being upbeat, but we can't let this thing get away from us this close to the finish line.

[tekisui]

4. 9 W states. Great!

Let me guess: NM, CO, IA, VA, NC, FL, OH, NV, IN.

That smells like a landside.

Everybody, GET TO WORK AND MAKE THIS HAPPEN!!!

[Captain Hilts]

6. I said it nearly six months ago. "Obama will win by a landslide."

McCain is an incredibly unattractive candidate, he's been endorsed by the most unpopular president since Hoover and the economy is giving him the final push.

[Phoonzang]

8. I don't understand why we're doing this. They don't call it an "October Surprise" for nothing.

A month is an eternity in politics. I could see running around and declaring victory if things were like this a few days before the election. But doing so now is just inviting heartache.

[elkston]

12. THE ARTICLE IS BS PROPGANDA. Obama aides would never say this

It is meant to mislead us. Don't believe the hype. While I am sure they are optimisitic, they would never use such "in the bag" language on the record.

[blogslut]

9. This article writer is trying to promote a narrative

That we, as a party, are overconfident. Note how all his "sources" are unnamed.

[niceypoo]

10. New registrations, youth vote, minority vote...

...will go heavily for Obama. I predict he will have solid support from older voters also.

[elkston]

11. Why are you posting this article?? Its widely believed to be a hit piece

meant to mislead us and create complacency. Guardian UK is supposed to lean to the right.

I don't believe any within the Obama camp are talking publicly about a landslide.

DO NOT BELIEVE THIS ARTICLE

[babylonsister]

14. The Guardian UK leans to the right? And FWIW, this is from

The Telegraph. I had no idea this is/was considered a hit piece (and who 'widely believes' that?), though I also doubt the Obama camp would say 'landslide'. I chalked that up to writer discretion.

So people, take it for what it's worth. I do think there are valid points in here concerning what pollsters are not considering.

And trust me, I'm far from complacent, and no one article will change that for me, especially after witnessing the past two elections.

[elkston]

15. Sorry, I meant Telegraph, not Guardian. And I know you're on the level, sorry (eom)

[ClarkUSA]

13. Here we go again... you know this is an unsourced psych-op story from a right wing rag, right?

In Great Britain, The Telegraph is a right wing rag similar in reputation to the New York Post and Washington Times.

Team Obama has always said the election would be close. Also, Obama's "inner circle" would never ever leak such
information, much less to a reporter from the premier right wing rag of England.

This is a story designed to make Obama grassroots complacent about working GOTV hard in this last, vital stretch.
Don't buy into their BS. More such storied crap will be coming from conservative quarters in the weeks ahead, I am
sure.