Quinnipiac: "It's difficult to find a modern presidential race that's swung so dramatically"

[Amerigo Vespucci]

Poll: Obama crushing McCain in battlegrounds
RAW STORY
Published: Wednesday October 1, 2008



Last week's presidential debate bounced Barack Obama past majority support in three key swing states that have helped decide the last two elections.

The Democratic candidate has surpassed 50 percent in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, and he holds leads over Republican John McCain of eight to 15 points, according to a new Quinnipiac swing state poll.

In Florida, its Obama with support from 51 percent of voters to McCain's 43 percent. Ohio has it for Obama 50-42, and Pennsylvania gives Obama his largest lead 54-39, according to the poll. The poll reflects a small bounce compared to Obama's pre-debate numbers and reflects more voter confidence in his ability to handle the economy.

Gov. Sarah Palin's sagging favorability and more voter confidence in Sen. Barack Obama's ability to handle the economy are propelling the Democrat to wider likely voter leads over Republican John McCain in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

Quinnipiac notes that no president has been elected since 1960 without winning two of those three swing states.

"It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. John McCain has his work cut out for him if he is to win the presidency and there does not appear to be a role model for such a comeback in the last half century," Brown added.

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Poll_Obama_crushing_McCain_in_battlegrounds_1001.html

[SunsetDreams]

1. K&R!!!

[JaneQPublic]

2. That's excellent. How does Quinnipiac rate as a polling organization?

I guess I'm trying not to get my hopes up, since this is "game over" if true. So, does Quinn. have a good rep for getting it right?

[applexcore]

3. They're considered just as accurate as most

[JaneQPublic]

12. Good to know. Thanks! (nt)

[Pab Sungenis]

26. They're most accurate in the Northeast, where they're based.

So take the Florida numbers with a grain of salt, and the Ohio numbers might be a little off, but Pennsylvania they're probably right on the button.

[BlooInBloo]

39. Rather than anecdote, here's some fact....

They have a pretty good track record.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings

[yodermon]

4. great news! but for some reason the phrase

"peaking too soon" is in my head.

ok hang on.





there. better.

[LiberadorHugo]

13. Obama = Muhammad Ali

The rope-a-dope analogies are extremely apt: Obama wins big by tricking his opponents and the media into underestimating him, yet right they think they have him cornered, they end up down for the count. And like Ali, Obama is as much a hero and a catalyst for positive change in the community as he is on the stage.

[Lochloosa]

21. I don't think so. Ohio started voting yesterday and we (FL) start voting in less than three weeks.

[Cha]

37. mccain peaked too soon and Obama

hasn't even peaked yet.

[Schulzz]

5. McCain deverses it.

I think it is also difficult to find a worse campaign.

[eshfemme]

6. This is basically a repeat of the primary battles, isn't it?

McCain underestimated Obama and thought he could coast on the election apparatus built by the Bush campaigns and instead of pushing the envelope in innovative ways, he pushed the envelope when it came to Rovian tactics. Obama's riskier but inventive use of social networking, web 2.0 technologies and good old fashioned on the ground campaigning required more investment in terms of manpower and money but it is paying off dividends now.

Seriously, I'd be surprised if Obama loses-- the only way they can win is if they do something to steal the election. That's the next part of what Obama needs to do-- to ensure that the election is NOT stolen again.

[yowzayowzayowza]

7. Sweet!!!

:bounce:

[xchrom]

8. recommend

[speedoo]

9. Wow. That's awesome. nt

[workinclasszero]

10. OBAMA CRUSHING MCBUSH IN BATTLEGROUNDS!!!!

:bounce::bounce::bounce::woohoo::woohoo::toast::toast::applause::applause::party::party:

[speedoo]

11. Deserves another kick. No one has picked this up yet.

Spread the good news!!

[LiberadorHugo]

14. If he's winning by those kinds of margins in OH and FL...

I think we will see victories in Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, and Montana.

[yellerpup]

15. Obama has been saying all along in reference to the polls

that people had not made up their minds yet and that it would take until October for them to do so. It came a little earlier because of McLame's performance in the first debate AND the debacle on Wall Street. I don't see this as a change, I see it as a progression.

[workinclasszero]

16. K&R!!

:kick: GOBAMA!!

[rockymountaindem]

17. And in the case of Ohio, they're voting as we speak

This is a good time to be peaking.

[yellerpup]

20. Did you see the photos posted last night

of people voting before sunrise in Ohio yesterday morning? Something tells me those weren't McSame-Palin voters. Inspiring! GObama!

[Lochloosa]

22. Link?

[yellerpup]

27. I know I didn't dream it because I showed it to Mr. pup

but I can't find the thread. I'll keep looking.

[yellerpup]

29. This is the thread.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7261729

I could have sworn that there was a photo of people camping out in tents waiting for the polls to open yesterday morning. The scene is well described though in a thread by Botany. :hi:

[yellerpup]

18. K&R!

For welcome news. :dem:

[racaulk]

19. LOVE IT!!!

K&R

[Aloha Spirit]

23. They should throw in a polling Q on The Great Schlep.

[ingac70]

24. McCain has made himself look so bad...

an old man I know who is quite racist said to me this weekend that after the campaign "suspension" stunt, McSame's poor debate showing, the gas shortages here in the Southeast, and the situation with the economy, that Obama is "looking whiter every day".

[FrenchieCat]

41. Now see,

That's funny! Obama is "looking whiter every day"!


Love it!

[WheelWalker]

25. Kick!

:kick:

[Shine]

28. Great news, but that picture of the two of them freaks me out a bit.

I swear to god, it looks like they're gonna KISS or something! Ewww...

:D

[workinclasszero]

30. Last week's presidential debate bounced Barack Obama past majority support in three key swing states

KICK IT! :kick:

[Sugarcoated]

31. This news is wonderful!

A question, though. In their pre-debate polls for FL, PA & OH Quinipiac have Obama up 5 or 6 points. PA was the only state I was seeing that kind of lead in before the debate. I don't doubt for a second Obama is pulling away in these states, but I don't get the pre-debate poll numbers.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1218

[grantcart]

32. great story

[yellowcanine]

33. Get ready for the mud. I heard that fraud Bill Bennett discussing it this morning with some Pubbie

operative - how the only chance McCain has now is to drag Obama down. Also Bill "Everybody else should be virtuous" Bennet was blathering about the latest meme, Gwen Ifill and how she has a conflict of interest because if Obama wins she will sell a lot more books. It is not clear how a moderator could show favortism when they have strict rules about asking the same question of each candidate, the order is decided by coin toss, etc. but anyway that doesn't stop them from blathering about it.

[deadparrot]

38. That's what was great about our long primary.

Whatever real or perceived "dirty laundry" of Obama's existed was vetted and uncovered earlier this year, so I highly doubt anything is going to come and bite us in the ass at this late date.

As for playing the race card...he's black (well, biracial, but I digress). It's not exactly a secret--people have, one way or the other, chosen to accept/celebrate or demean him based upon that fact. The point being, it's long been over and done with.

[tomp]

34. numbers don't matter if we don't consider theft.

they stole the last two. why will they not try this time?

[The Backlash Cometh]

35. Bullshit.

They just realized there was no way to spin this one so they finally started to tell the truth.

[mzmolly]

36. Chills....

reading that. Wow!

[TexasObserver]

40. McGovern ... Mondale ... McCain - historic ass kickings!

I was on the receiving end with McGovern and Mondale. It'll be nice to be on the side doing the ass kicking!!