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My father is a long-retired newspaper man who wrote editorials about American government and foreign affairs for decades. He can tell you what states Harry Truman carried in 1948. He can reel off the members of Nixon's cabinets -- that's tough -- I think Nixon had four Attorneys General. Although he is a lifelong Democrat, Dad is your go-to guy for understanding political trends and what makes candidates succeed when it seems likely they'll fail.
Since 1940, he has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election but one.
In late October of 2004, we went on a day trip through the Blue Ridge Mountains of southern Virginia. This is where his mother was born and grew up. It's a land he loves for its mountains, scenery, produce and fall leaves. This area is rock-ribbed Republican. It has not gone blue since the New Deal.
On that beautiful day, my father, who is not given to great displays of emotion, slowly grew ecstatic at the number of Kerry-Edwards signs we saw. They were everywhere; in front of doublewides, in the windows of small modular homes, on seemingly every car or truck bumper. They were on every fencepost. Someone had gotten hold of one of the huge signs that was used on or above the platform at Kerry rallies. A couple of teenagers were nailing it to a fence at a country crossroads. We saw several handmade signs that were as professional as the Union-made ones. Kerry-Edwards signs easily outnumbered Bush-Cheney signs 7-1.
Dad said, "I've never seen anything like it since the depths of the Depression. This area is poor, unemployment is high, much of it is hard to get to. If this county is so vocal in its support for Kerry, I can't help thinking we may have a landslide on our hands. Democrats don't win here."
We know what happened the following week. When Dad and I went on the web and examined the county-by county-results for Virginia, every one of those we figured might really be Kerry country had gone the other way. The 2004 presidential election was not a landslide, but it was a convincing win. All the economic factors plus two unpopular wars would seem to have been enough to hand the election to the Democrats. But they weren't. No one in our family was crazy about Kerry, but we knew then and know now that he would have provided a competent and honest counterpoint to the lies, deceit and corruptibility of the first Bush term.
Residents of Virginia's Henry and Patrick counties have limited access to good medical care or quality education. The textile plant in Stuart that had been the primary source of employment for the area had closed, forcing some workers to drive almost 50 miles (one-way) to Winston-Salem, NC, for comparable jobs. Others drove 60 miles over the mountains to new jobs in Roanoke. Families were sending a disproportionate number of their own off to Iraq and Afghanistan.
My father's sixth sense about election winners had failed for the first time in 64 years. He truly did not believe that people who were hurting would vote against their own self-interests. I think the last election taught us that sometimes they do, in greater numbers than outward symbols of fealty to a candidate would suggest. A political sign or a bumper sticker is not a vote.
I'm holding my breath until November 4. I want an Obama-Biden landslide as much as the next person. But until I see a √ beside a smiling Obama and the number 270 or greater, I'm going to take every Obama sign, button and bumper sticker I see as a hint of things to come, not a sign of a done deal.
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