McCain's polling slump related to Sarah Palin

[Joanne98]

The conventional wisdom is that the current economic crisis is chipping away at John McCain's polling position in the run for the presidency. A new Pew Poll suggests the McCain slump may not be so temporal. From Marc Ambinder:

Pew finds that 51% of Americans now believe that Palin is unqualified, up from 37% after her announcement. (Pew's Andrew Kohut writes: "There is a clear correlation between views of Palin's qualifications and support for McCain, which may be hurting the GOP candidate. Fewer people see her as qualified to become president, and the balance of opinion toward Palin has grown more negative since early September.")


Pew's poll has a large landline and cell phone sample -- 1,585, and it asked an extensive battery of questions about the last presidential debate and both candidates' handling of the economy. 72% of respondents labeled Obama's debate performance as "good" or "excellent," compares to less than 32% who saw the same from McCain. Demographically, Obama has gained among Democrats -- he now commands more support from Democrats than McCain does from Republicans -- and from a group that Pew calls "older baby boomers."


The gender gap in Pew's poll is huge -- 17 points among women in Obama's favor, and only four points among men in McCain's. And Obama has a double-digit lead in the swing states.

Quinnipiac's latest set of swing states polls finds Palin with a net negative impression in several states, including Florida, where she's spent quite a bit of campaign time. The numbers in Florida are stunning, in a sense; there's been a net swing of 13 points in Obama's favor during the past two weeks. He's even competitive among white voters, with McCain besting him by only five points.

Looking at the Pew poll, the one age group still lined up behind McCain are the seniors (65+ years). This ought to be a clear sign to begin campaigning hard against John McCain's privatization of social security policies. I reckon a great deal of the support McCain enjoys with seniors will soften as McCain's positions on Social Security become better known.

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