Stragetic Vision (R) Wisconsin Poll: Obama 49 (+3), McSame 40 (-3)

[MadBadger]

And this is a Repuke Pollster too!

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/10/sneak_peek_obama_up_9_in_wisco.html

[Schulzz]

1. The only blue state within the margin of error is now NH.

On the other side, at least 9 red states are in play.

[Marsala]

2. We don't even need New Hampshire

Pretty much every path to victory doesn't need it. Even the bare bones one of Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado gets us to 269, which should be good enough for a House win.

Though Obama is now so far ahead in the other swing states that it's crazy that he could lose New Hampshire. Not gonna happen.

[democrattotheend]

3. Not necessarily

Remember that a House vote on the president is not a straight majority vote...each state delegation gets 1 vote, determined by how the majority of its members vote. So all of the Democratic reps in California and NY would only count for 2 votes out of 50, and there are a lot of small states with 1 GOP rep that would get an equal vote to CA and NY. And it's based on the new Congress, so nobody knows what would happen. Plus, some Democrats in heavily Republican districts might feel compelled to vote the way their district did. Republicans wouldn't have that same problem because there are only a handful of Republicans left in Kerry-Gore districts.

[zulchzulu]

4. We need another 10 points before I'm happy, damnit!

I want the McCain campaign to look at Wisconsin as a very scary place to be. We will kick his ass, but I want a stomping.

[MadBadger]

5. Id love a 15 point thrashing, but I think there are too many dumbasses in our state.

I think in a landslide, Obama wins by 8-10 here.