10/1 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): Obama 351 EV, 52.4% aggregate state model; 54.0% 5-poll National model

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: October 1

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

10/1/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 48.89 (51.93) 
 45.25 (48.07) 
 49.40 (53.46) 
 43.00 (46.54) 
52.41
47.59
53.96
46.04
 351 
 187 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Gallup
Research2k
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen
Time

Pew Resrch
ABC/WP
CBS/NYT
ABC/WP
NBC/WSJ

LAT
FOX News
Ipsos
CNN
Quinnipiac

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
9/30
9/30
9/30
9/30
9/29

9/29
9/29
9/24
9/22
9/22

9/22
9/22
9/22
9/21
9/16

Size   
              
2746 RV
1100 LV
914 RV
3000 LV
1133 LV

1181 LV
916 LV
844 RV
780 LV
838 LV

1085 RV
900 RV
923 RV
697 LV
987 LV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
1.87%
2.95%
3.24%
1.79%
2.91%

2.85%
3.24%
3.37%
3.51%
3.39%

2.98%
3.27%
3.23%
3.71%
3.12%

Obama
            
48
51
47
51
50

49
50
47
52
48

49
45
44
51
49

46.7
50.0
48.7
52.8

McCain
            
44
41
42
45
43

43
46
42
43
46

45
39
43
47
45

42.5
44.4
43.6
47.2

Other
            
8
8
11
4
7

8
4
11
5
6

6
16
13
2
6

10.8
5.6
7.7
0.0

Spread
            
4
10
5
6
7

6
4
5
9
2

4
6
1
4
4

4.2
5.6
5.1
5.6

 

Obama
            
49.4
49.6
49.4
49.4
49.6

49.2
49.2
48.2
47.6
47.4

47.6
47.6
48.0
48.2
47.2

McCain
            
43.0
42.8
43.8
43.8
43.4

44.0
44.4
43.0
43.2
44.0

43.8
43.6
44.8
45.2
45.0

Spread
            
6.4
6.8
5.6
5.6
6.2

5.2
4.8
5.2
4.4
3.4

3.8
4.0
3.2
3.0
2.2

Win Prob
               
99.98
100.00
99.99
99.99
99.97

99.66
99.37
97.77
91.48
88.10

89.99
91.12
88.68
90.58
89.06

 

Obama
            
54.0
54.2
53.5
53.5
53.8

53.3
53.0
53.5
53.1
52.6

52.8
52.9
52.3
52.2
51.9

McCain
            
46.0
45.8
46.5
46.5
46.2

46.7
47.0
46.5
46.9
47.4

47.2
47.1
47.7
47.8
48.1

Spread
            
7.9
8.3
7.0
7.0
7.6

6.6
6.1
7.0
6.2
5.1

5.5
5.8
4.6
4.3
3.8

Win Prob
               
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00

99.97
99.92
99.64
97.41
96.22

96.86
97.39
96.03
97.09
98.22

 

 

The TRUE Math

Assume that current state polls reflect the will of the electorate and a fraud-free election is held today. The 2008 Election Model indicates that given the following undecided voter allocations (UVA), Obama’s projected 2-party vote share and expected (mean) electoral vote are:

UVA
51.9%
60%
75%
80%

Vote
51.9%
52.4%
53.3%
53.6%

Evote
343
351
365
369

EV Wins   (in a Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election trials)
4998
5000          (base case scenario)
5000
5000

 

Obama is projected to win 54.2% of the two-party vote based on the most recent 5 national polls. Since the national polls lead the states, we can expect a rise in his expected EV to 380+.

View the State vs. National vote share projection Trend.

This was the electoral vote.com map on Nov 1, 2004.

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL

Last
S T A T E   M O D E L
 
N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
 
MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION

Update
L A T E S T  S T A T E–P O L L  A V E R A G E
 
L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O V–A V E R A G E
 
EXPECTED

10/1/2008
Aggregate
2-party
Projection
 
5-Poll
5-Poll 2-party
Projection
 
ELECTORAL VOTE

 
 
 
60% UVA
 
 
 
60% UVA

Obama
McCain
48.89
45.25
51.93
48.07
52.41
47.59
  
 
49.40
43.00
53.46
46.54
53.96
46.04
  
 
351
187

 

 
75% UVA
 
 
 
75% UVA

Kerry
Bush
47.88
46.89
50.52
49.48
51.80
48.20
  
 
47.80
46.60
50.64
49.36
51.77
48.23
  
 
 337 
 201 

 


Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama

Uncounted
1%
 
2%
 
3%
 
Switched
2%
4%
6%
Vote%
51.1
50.1
49.0
EV
326
301
269
Vote%
50.9
49.8
48.8
EV
322
295
264
Vote%
50.7
49.6
48.6
EV
315
288
256

 

Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share

Undecided Voter Allocation Scenario
Base Case

Obama
40%
51.93%
60%
75%
80%

 

Projected 2-Party Vote Share

Obama
McCain
51.2
48.8
51.93
48.07
52.41
47.59
53.3
46.7
53.6
46.4

 

MoE
Popular Vote – Obama Win Probability (Normdist)

1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %
99.2
88.7
79.0
100.0
97.1
89.7
100.0
99.1
94.2
100.00
99.9
98.4
100.0
100.0
99.0

 

Electoral Vote – Obama       (Monte Carlo Simulation:  based on state win-probabilities)

Mean
Median
328.2
329
342.6
344
351.1
353
364.8
364
369.3
370

Maximum
Minimum
393
248
403
259
414
264
425
298
426
313

 

Electoral Vote – Obama Win Probability

Trial Wins
Probability
4988
99.8
4998
99.96
4999
100.0
5000
1000
5000
1000

 

95% EV Confidence Interval
Upper
Lower
366
290
377
309
382
320
392
337
395
344

 

States Won
Obama
 
27
 
27
 
28
 
30
 
30
 

 

 

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

National Model — see atop
State Model
(2-party vote shares)

 
 
L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L 
 
KEY STATES
(within MoE)
 
2004 EM  KERRY  VOTE–PROJECTION  vs
EXIT POLL  &  RECORDED VOTE–COUNT
 
2008  vs  2004
PROJECTED  VOTE

 

 
 
Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
60% UVA
Projection
 
MC Exp EV
Win Prob
 

Resource
 

Allocate
 
Vote
Projected
WPE (IM)
 Exit Poll 
Vote
Counted
 
Kerry Projection
deviation
 
 
2008 Obama
diff
 
StatesEV
Flip To(*)
 
State
      

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
Poll
Date
        
       
9/23
9/21
9/30
9/22
9/28

9/29
9/28
9/13
9/25
10/1

9/30
9/20
9/17
9/20
10/1

9/23
9/22
9/28
9/28
9/25

9/23
9/25
9/25
9/22
9/16

9/26
9/26
9/17
9/23
9/25

10/1
9/22
9/25
9/29
9/20

10/1
9/17
9/26
10/1
9/16

9/23
9/21
9/29
9/16
9/13

9/22
9/30
9/23
9/25
9/25
9/28
       
 
VoteShare
 Popular 
 Electoral 
       
9
3
10
6
55
       
9
7
3
3
27
       
15
4
4
21
11
       
7
6
8
9
4
       
10
12
17
10
6
       
11
3
5
5
4
       
15
5
31
15
3
       
20
7
7
21
4
       
8
3
11
34
5
       
3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 48.89 %
 348 
       
34
38
39
37
55

50
54
90
57
50

44
63
27
56
45

53
41
39
40
50

57
55
49
50
37

47
41
34
45
48

52
51
57
47
41

49
32
53
52
59

41
37
38
44
28

58
50
54
46
49
37
 
McCain
 45.25 %
  190  
       
60
55
56
47
41

45
38
9
37
44

52
32
68
38
48

40
53
55
55
43

38
39
42
44
55

48
53
60
46
44

42
42
38
45
55

46
64
40
38
36

54
54
51
54
64

36
47
43
50
42
58
      
 
Spread
3.64
 158  
     
(26)
(17)
(17)
(10)
14

5
16
81
20
6

(8)
31
(41)
18
(3)

13
(12)
(16)
(15)
7

19
16
7
6
(18)

(1)
(12)
(26)
(1)
4

10
9
19
2
(14)

3
(32)
13
14
23

(13)
(17)
(13)
(10)
(36)

22
3
11
(4)
7
(21)
 
 
Obama
52.41
 353 
       
37.6
42.2
42.0
46.6
57.4

53.0
58.8
90.6
60.6
53.6

46.4
66.0
30.0
59.6
49.2

57.2
44.6
42.6
43.0
54.2

60.0
58.6
54.4
53.6
41.8

50.0
44.6
37.6
50.4
52.8

55.6
55.2
60.0
51.8
43.4

52.0
34.4
57.2
58.0
62.0

44.0
42.4
44.6
45.2
32.8

61.6
51.8
55.8
48.4
54.4
40.0 
 
Obama
100.0 %
 351.1 
       
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.8
100.0

92.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
96.1

3.9
100.0
0.0
100.0
34.8

100.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
98.0

100.0
100.0
98.4
96.1
0.0

50.0
0.4
0.0
57.8
91.5

99.7
99.5
100.0
81.1
0.1

83.6
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

0.2
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.0

100.0
81.1
99.8
21.7
98.4
0.0 
 
Percent
 100 
          
       






4.7



10.6

2.0



8.6





1.0



4.4
3.9


11.5


5.2
2.6




13.7


15.7












10.2

3.3
2.6
     
 
Rank
 
          
       






8



4

14



6





15



9
10


3


7
12




2


1












5

11
12
   
 
Final  Kerry
51.75 %
 337 
       
42.0
39.8
48.8
50.5
55.8

50.8
56.5
86.3
57.8
52.3

46.5
52.5
38.3
57.0
41.3

54.5
39.3
42.8
49.0
58.3

56.3
70.8
54.3
55.0
47.3

49.3
41.3
37.3
50.5
51.5

56.0
50.5
60.0
49.3
42.5

52.3
36.3
54.5
53.8
62.0

44.3
46.5
49.3
40.0
29.3

58.3
48.5
55.0
49.5
54.8
33.5
       
JK Unadj
52.51 %
 337 

42.1
41.6
44.9
45.7
60.9

50.7
63.4
91.9
61.9
51.4

42.3
58.5
32.7
57.0
40.7

51.2
37.7
40.2
44.0
56.6

60.3
66.6
55.0
56.4
49.8

49.3
38.2
37.6
53.7
57.8

58.0
53.6
65.5
49.7
35.2

54.3
33.8
53.0
55.5
63.3

46.3
36.5
43.5
42.3
28.9

68.1
50.3
57.7
40.5
52.6
33.3
Kerry
48.76 %
 252 

37.2
35.9
44.8
45.0
54.9

47.5
54.9
90.1
53.9
47.6

41.8
54.6
30.6
55.4
39.7

49.7
37.0
40.1
42.6
54.1

56.5
62.6
51.7
51.6
40.2

46.6
39.0
33.0
48.4
50.7

53.5
49.5
59.0
44.0
35.9

49.2
34.8
51.9
51.4
60.0

41.3
38.8
43.0
38.6
26.3

59.5
45.9
53.4
43.6
50.2
29.4
    
 
Exit Poll
0.75 %
   0   

0.1
1.8
(3.9)
(4.8)
5.2

(0.0)
6.9
5.7
4.1
(0.8)

(4.2)
6.0
(5.5)
(0.0)
(0.6)

(3.3)
(1.6)
(2.6)
(5.0)
(1.6)

4.0
(4.1)
0.7
1.4
2.6

0.0
(3.1)
0.3
3.2
6.3

2.0
3.1
5.5
0.5
(7.3)

2.0
(2.4)
(1.5)
1.7
1.3

2.0
(10.0)
(5.8)
2.3
(0.4)

9.8
1.8
2.7
(9.0)
(2.1)
(0.2)
    
 
Vote Cnt
( 3.0 ) %
 (85) 
 
(4.8)
(3.9)
(3.9)
(5.5)
(0.9)

(3.3)
(1.6)
3.8
(3.9)
(4.7)

(4.7)
2.1
(7.7)
(1.6)
(1.6)

(4.8)
(2.3)
(2.7)
(6.4)
(4.1)

0.2
(8.2)
(2.5)
(3.4)
(7.1)

(2.7)
(2.3)
(4.2)
(2.1)
(0.8)

(2.5)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(5.2)
(6.6)

(3.1)
(1.5)
(2.6)
(2.3)
(2.0)

(2.9)
(7.7)
(6.3)
(1.4)
(3.0)

1.3
(2.6)
(1.6)
(5.9)
(4.5)
(4.1)
 
   Final  Kerry  
0.65 %
   14.1   

(4.4)
2.5
(6.8)
(3.9)
1.7

2.3
2.3
4.3
2.9
1.4

(0.1)
13.5
(8.3)
2.6
8.0

2.7
5.4
(0.1)
(6.0)
(4.1)

3.8
(12.2)
0.2
(1.4)
(5.5)

0.8
3.4
0.4
(0.1)
1.3

(0.4)
4.7
0.0
2.6
0.9

(0.3)
(1.9)
2.7
4.2
0.0

(0.3)
(4.1)
(4.7)
5.2
3.6

3.4
3.3
0.8
(1.1)
(0.3)
6.5
    
 
Obama
8
 101 

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV*
NH

NJ
NM*
NY
NC*
ND

OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA*
WA
WV
WI
WY
    

 

[opihimoimoi]

1. OMG.....it Changes by the HOUR......it gets better and better....the Pubs must be Drunk by now

REVOLT WITH YOUR BLUE VOTE

[tiptoe]

2. Palin "debate" outcome will fuel the Obama Biden numbers rise.. n/t