Guys (and gals), Obama is going to win.

[Barack_America]

I just went over to Real Clear Politics and had a look at the battleground states and how they've trended over time.

If I give Obama only the states where he has been consistently been ahead and give McCain ALL of the battleground states where they have flip-flopped for the lead, I get the following results:

Obama 273
McCain 265

That means, in terms of battleground states, that I'm giving McCain all of the following states:
-Ohio
-Florida
-Nevada
-Virginia
-Missouri
-North Carolina

And for Obama I take only:
-Michigan
-Pennsylvania
-New Mexico
-Colorado
-New Hampshire
-Minnesota

And, as I mentioned, despite the occasional polling hiccup, those states have been consistently in Obama's column, on average. Seriously, go check them out: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

So, wow. I'm suddenly feeling very confident about this thing. It's not going to stop me from volunteering up to and on election day to GOTV, but I think we're going to have reason to celebrate on Nov. 4.

Awesome. :smoke:

[Faygo Kid]

1. There is an October Surprise that must be factored in. Otherwise, you are right.

McCain has no chance as things stand now.

[Barack_America]

3. Well, there's always that. But I'm sick of living in fear of what the GOP might do.

And, given the state of our economy, I'm not even sure that trotting out Bin Laden's corpse would be enough to change the election outcome.

If they had anything outrageous on Obama himself, we would be hearing it right now (to stop McCain's slide in the polls). They never would have conceded Michigan without first slinging the poo.

[Hutzpa]

19. And where did you get that from

might I asked???? :shrug:

[burythehatchet]

2. we always win

[kennetha]

4. I'm convinced

I used to be pessimistic about his chances but the combination of the pending collapse of the economy, McCain's erratic and impulsive campaigning, and McCain's bizarre and indefensible choice of Palin, makes me believe that we pretty much have this in the bag.

[elkston]

18. Heh. Yeah, nothing to do with own efforts to distinguish himself as a candidate! ;-) (eom)

[Ryano42]

5. The Score is 0 - 0.

We must never act or work like we are cruising to victory...this will be a WAR until the lat vote is CORRECTLY counted.

:kick:

[Barack_America]

6. Hence my continued pledge to volunteer to GOTV.

And confidence is very helpful when you are dragging your ass door-to-door convincing people to vote for your candidate.

[Ryano42]

10. Absolutley...

And I think with the way things have gone so far...and how great out candidates have been...I think we can carry ourselves with a Ton o' Smug! :D:D:D

[Barack_America]

13. I've never campaigned for Obama in a winning effort.

I campaigned in NJ and PA.

So, this is going to be really and truly fun, for a change. :D

[Sodan]

7. Look at Intrade.. Obama up 7.4 - McCain down 4.9 today

wow!

[Hepburn]

8. Yes, he is, but....

...we MUST keep up the work we have been doing to make sure that it is a clear victory that the cheating asshole Pubbies cannot steal from us.

They are evil and dishonest ~~ we MUST remain on alert to their dishonesty. IMO, if we do that? We are talking PRESIDENT OBAMA!

:bounce:

While I do love Barack and I do believe both he and Joe Biden have what it takes to get us back on track...you know what makes me smile the most?

Thinking of Michelle and those two darling daughters in the WH ~~ now THAT puts a HUGE smile on my face!

:hi:

[Sarah Ibarruri]

9. I want you all to know I am OFF election time and I plan to PARTY if Obama wins! nt

[VenusRising]

11. And Gals!

:P

[Barack_America]

12. No, none of you bitches.

I'm like Palin, only interested in impressing the fellas.

;)

(tooootally kidding)

[VenusRising]

17. LMAO!

:rofl::rofl::rofl:


:toast:

[potone]

14. Eupheme, as the ancient Greeks used to say.

In other words, don't tempt fate! Not only do we have to fear the large part of the electorate who are too stupid, ignorant or misinformed (and no, I do not despise my fellow Americans, I just realize that most people are too busy just trying to get by to take the effort it now takes to find out what is really going on and who is responsible for the multiple catastrophes we now are mired in), we also have to fear that once again the election will be stolen. I hope and pray that you are right, but one of the things that I am most disappointed in the Congressional Democrats for not doing is that they did nothing to fix our vote-counting systems. :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[Sherman A1]

15. I bet a Republican co worker

Obama sweeps 50 states. We have the soft drink of the victors choice on the line.......

[Vattel]

16. I would bet

on Obama, but I don't trust Colorado; I'm hoping Obama can pick up Missouri or Ohio.

[Hutzpa]

20. .

[Barack_America]

22. Agreed.

I don't understand your post.

:shrug:

Listen, I'm as superstitious as the next person, but looking at this practically, I think Obama's got a good shot. That actually makes me MORE inspired to get out there and volunteer.

[Hutzpa]

23. Here

happy..

[MorningGlow]

21. A pox upon your subject line!

Now I've got that harpie's voice looping in my brain! "Guys! and gals!" ARRRGHHHHH.

Good math with the states, though! Thanks for that! :applause:

[Erin Elizabeth]

24. Does anyone ever look at this site?

http://election.princeton.edu/

As of October 3, 8:00PM EDT: Obama: 348 McCain: 190 Meta-margin: Obama +3.94%