Poll: Young voters give Obama 2-1 edge over McCain

[usregimechange]

WASHINGTON — Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain by a 61%-32% among registered voters under 30, an advantage that is swamping McCain's competitive position among older voters.

A USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll of 18- to 29-year-olds details Obama's continuing clout among the voters who fueled his initial victory in the Iowa caucuses at the beginning of the year and his presidential ambitions since then.

In contrast, McCain leads Obama among seniors 65 and older by four percentage points, according to the Gallup daily tracking poll. Among the middle-aged — those 30 to 64 — the Arizona senator remains within striking distance, lagging by two or three points.

Even so, Obama's 2-1 edge among an energized Millennial generation gives him a lead overall now measured at eight points by Gallup. If these margins hold up on Election Day, the nation will see its biggest generation gap since at least 1976, when surveys of voters leaving polling places began to be taken.

At this point, Gallup shows a 30-point swing between the votes of the nation's youngest and oldest voters. In the survey, 75% of younger Americans say they're registered to vote and 64% say they're paying "quite a lot" of attention to the presidential race. Among those who are registered, three of four say they plan to vote — 30% of them for the first time.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-10-05-poll-youth_N.htm?csp=34

[nam78_two]

1. Bodes well for the future

:toast:

[msongs]

2. very nice but WILL THEY VOTE IN NOVEMBER??? nt

[Juche]

3. Youth always have lower turnout

Young people's turnout is always lower than turnout among older folks.

In 2004 people under 30 made up about 16% of the electorate. In 2008 we will probably make up about 19-22% (out of 25% of the potential electorate) because our turnout will be slightly higher and there are more of us.

Combine the massive growth in support for democratic tickets for youth and latino voters (who only went for Kerry by about 10% margins in 2004 but who support Obama by 30-40% margins in 2008), and who only made up about 24% of the electorate in 2004 (assuming no overlap) but will likely make up 30% in 2008 and we are looking in good shape. That alone is great news. If latinos and people under 30 made up 24% of the electorate (again, assuming no overlap when there is some, probably 1%) and went for Kerry by about a 10% margin but make up 30% in 2008 and are going Obama by 30% margins, then Obama is in great shape. Kerry barely lost 2004 and only lost due to election fraud.

Also as far as the youth vote, the YDA feels that if people vote the same party 3x in a row, they maintain that bias for life. Youth started trending dem in 2004. By 2006 it was a 20% margin. Now it is a 30% margin. If in this election and 2010 youth maintain that massive democratic bias then an entire generation of voters who make up 1/3 of the electorate will have a strong democratic bias. We could do for the democratic ticket what southern whites did to the republican ticket, give it a massive boost and propel it into long term power.