Eleven Insights on the Election (Gallup)

[wtmusic]

1. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are holding tough in their core states.

Looking at the average of likely voter preferences in the two-way race across the two latest Gallup Polls, Bush has a 20-point lead over Kerry in the "red" states, or those that Bush won by more than five points in 2000. Kerry has a 16-point lead over Bush in the "blue" states, those that Al Gore won by more than five points in 2000.

2. On the other hand, the race in key showdown states remains remarkably close.

The two major-party candidates are within one point of each other among likely voters (48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry) when the results of Gallup's trial heat ballots in the 16 states -- typically referred to as battleground or showdown states -- are averaged across the last two polls. (Gallup's showdown states are those in which neither candidate won by more than five points in 2000.)

<snip>

Cheney has the most negative image of any of the six GOP convention speakers (Bush, first lady Laura Bush, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Arizona Sen. John McCain, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Cheney) tested in our Aug. 23-25 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

http://www.gallup.com/content/?ci=12907