aaaaaa5a
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:28 PM
Original message |
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Edited on Mon Oct-06-08 11:00 PM by aaaaaa5a
I would say the state is "light red" right now. I'm going to start canvassing for Obama this Saturday. I have already taken November 4th off to drive Obama voters to the polls.
I canvassed for the Obama campaign during the Democratic Primary too. I personally drove 4 people to the polls on primary day! I was STUNNED BEYOND BELIEF that a "Black man" nearly upset Hillary Clinton in this state. I thought he would lose by 10-12 points. And to be honest, I think Hillary Clinton thought so too! There were a lot of us shocked at the results that night. It gives me hope for November 4th.
Here's a quick local view of the state.
Despite the close polls, it's going to take a lot of work to turn this state blue. Obama is NOT IN THE LEAD. But shockingly, we're in the ball-game here.
Obama is going to speak at the fairgrounds in Indianapolis this week. The fairgrounds is a popular park in Marion county. It's an Obama strong-hold. Turn-out should be fantastic. However I worry that because it's in the city, the crowd is going to be majority African American. I don't know how that's going to play on TV to the many white voters we are going to need to win this state. I'm sorry to offend anyone. But that's reality. This is Indiana. Race is a factor.
Obama is going to have to win Marion County (Indianapolis) BIG to offset big loses in the southern part of the state. He also must win Hamilton county, Hendricks county and Boone County (Indy suburbs) by huge margins to have a chance. After that, he will win Monroe County (Home of Indiana University) and the "Chicago effect" will make him competitive in the Northwest corner of the state. Everyplace else in Indiana will be "deep red" on election night.
Once you move south of Indianapolis, being in Indiana (with the exception of Bloomington)is like being in Mississippi.
I had lunch with someone from Seymour, Indiana once. She told me she hated the Democrats because they thought she was stupid because she believed in God!
Last week, another woman in Bedford, Indiana asked me legitimately if Obama was a muslim. You may find it funny, but to people who don't follow politics or read this board regularly... YES it is STILL an issue.
Another person, (A Doctor) from Mitchell, Indiana actually BELIEVES there is enough oil in the United States to eliminate our dependency on foreign oil. If only the "damn environmentalists would let us drill!" he says!
That's an example of what we are dealing with here! But we will keep trying! Today, I voted by absentee ballot in Marion county. The clerk said turnout has been great! I'll be canvassing for Obama in Indiana as much as possible until election day.
On another local note... Jill Thompson (D) has NO CHANCE of being elected Governor here. Mitch Daniels (R) is going to win easily. Obama will have NO HELP on the ballot. It's going to take alot of ticket splitting by folks who normally vote straight Republican for him to win the state.
Just the take of one local!
Obama '08!
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Rosa Luxemburg
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:34 PM
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1. what about new voter registration? |
aaaaaa5a
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:59 PM
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9. Here are the most recent numbers. |
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As of September 20th...
Statewide there are 4,398,20 registered voters in Indiana, that's 102,318 new voters compared to 2006.
There was a real push to get new voters registered by the end of today. So I'm hoping for a real good number when the final tally is known.
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Rosa Luxemburg
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
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The GOP will try to flood Ohio
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amisaid1
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:35 PM
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I also live in Indiana and I agree with everything that you say.
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BrklynLiberal
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:35 PM
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3. It is great that you will be out there trying like hell.... |
asdjrocky
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:41 PM
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4. I've only passed through Indiana |
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In my travels, but I know enough to know that if Obama is keeping it anywhere in the ball park there, then that alone is pretty amazing. Thanks for all your efforts and the tour. I know far more about Indiana now than I did before I read your post.
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aaaaaa5a
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:51 PM
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5. New Poll... the race is tied here! |
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Here's a snip from the CBS (Indianapolis) station website. The WISH-TV Indiana poll shows McCain and Obama each supported by 46% of likely voters. Five percent are undecided and 3% say they favor another candidate. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.5%age points. http://www.fox28.com/Global/story.asp?S=9134876
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LiberalFighter
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:54 PM
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6. See whether your county is doing in person early voting. |
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We are scheduling Tuesdays and Thursdays before the election to drive voters downtown to the Election Board to vote.
The more voters you can get to vote before the election the less pressure on the resources on election day.
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aaaaaa5a
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:13 PM
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15. That's a good idea... |
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I'm going to check on that!
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Cha
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:56 PM
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7. Good Luck and thank you for |
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all your efforts, aaaaaa5a~
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genna
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Mon Oct-06-08 10:59 PM
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8. I wrote here about my experience in Seymour Indiana and my friend being called "colored" |
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BUT A DUer shot me down and said it was the home of John Mellencamp. It was a great place, blase skippy yada yah.
All I'm saying is...TOLD YOU! Southern Indiana is NO JOKE.
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aaaaaa5a
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:07 PM
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13. Our Country is very funny... |
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Edited on Mon Oct-06-08 11:08 PM by aaaaaa5a
because even though Indiana sits in the "Northern" part of our country, it's culture is very southern. I have joked with my mom that if the Civil war were fought again, I'm not sure which side Indiana would be on. I still can't figure out how we fought for the United States the first time around?
My co-worker once told me that on a per capita basis, there are probably more confederate flags in Southern Indiana than there are in any traditional deep south state.
As another poster said, the fact that Obama is competitive here is amazing. And it's more than just a racial issue. Both John Kerry and Al Gore were WIPED OUT in 2000 and 2004! And they're white males.
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Damian the LHP
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Tue Oct-07-08 12:13 AM
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24. I've lived here for four years... |
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...and nearly every day I'm reminded that this is the northernmost southern statre.
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eridani
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Tue Oct-07-08 04:03 AM
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29. Southern Illinois is the same way |
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I've heard it said that Illinois is 1/3 Chicago, 1/3 Iowa, and 1/3 Mississippi.
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IndianaJones
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:02 PM
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10. its dark dark blue where I am. get 'em in line in your area! nt. |
Every Man A King
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:03 PM
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11. Didn't early voting start today in Indiana? |
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Will there be an effort to get people to vote before/after the rally?
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Lorien
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:04 PM
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12. I meet a lot of people like that doctor down here in Florida |
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they have told me that ANWR has more oil than Saudi Arabia, but that the "Libruls" and environmentalists are living the high life off of oil profits, so they don't want us to know about it. I believe that it was Limbaugh that wrote that particular fairy tale.
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Project Grudge
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:13 PM
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Edited on Mon Oct-06-08 11:17 PM by Project Grudge
But I call B.S.
I live in Southern Indiana and I don't think I've seen any confederate flags around here at all. Also, my county goes pretty Blue in the elections. We have a democratic mayor (England), a Dem. representative (Hill), and a Dem. state representative (Bill Cochran).
I really don't like it when people mis-characterize this area. We have a population of 60,000 in my town (and that's a good size for Indiana.) As a suburb of Louisville and there are many others that trend blue like Jeffersonville and Clarksville. There are many more red parts of Indiana like the northwest.
I've seen quite a few Obama signs/stickers. It's not the bluest of areas, but we elect both dems and rethugs pretty evenly.
Please, just get your facts straight before bashing a region; there are stupid people everywhere.
*edited for punctuation
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aaaaaa5a
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:24 PM
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And I love my state. I went to school here. I work here. One day I will raise my family here. There is a lot to love about Indiana.
However, my synopsis of Southern Indiana is correct. The areas you described, while technically Southern Indiana, are really suburbs of Louisville. That's not exactly the same thing as being in Odon, Shoals, Vincennes or Monroe City!
When you have some free time, please venture a little further up HWY 65. Stop in Seymour or Scottsburgh. Talk to SOME of the people. I think that will give you a better understanding of the true battle WE FACE to turn Indiana blue on November 4th.
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Project Grudge
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:33 PM
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I lived in Bloomington. I live a lot closer to those counties than you do and I've probably been there more times than you have. However, if you go outside of any metro area (Louisville, Indy, Chicago) in Indiana it's red. So there's no distinction between Southern Indiana and Northern Indiana's rural parts in regards to voting behaviors; however, you felt the need to single out Southern Indiana, which has just as many democrats in D.C. as northwest or other rural parts. So once again, B.S. I know Southern Indiana, born and raised as well. As someone who has lived here his whole life, I think I would have a better idea of what is going on here than someone in central Indiana. I believe you were wrong about generalizing Southern Indiana as REDNECK USA, when it consistently goes dem in a a majority of Washignton races (just not the presidential, which is normally within a %10-15 difference) but that's just my 2 cents.
Try going through highway 150 (Paoli) or 37 (Salem) and you'll meet a lot of dems, and a lot reps. I drive those routes every week.
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aaaaaa5a
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Tue Oct-07-08 12:01 AM
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about the differences between Northern and Southern Indiana being minimal. I agree with you on that. I too have spent time in Paoli and Salem. In fact I was recently at a convention in French Lick which is right next door to Paoli. (Off topic, but French Lick has a gorgeous hotel and gambling area!)
This area, like most of Northern Indiana is very red. And it is red for many of the same cultural reasons that the deep south is. God, Gays, Guns and Religion play well there. If it didn't, Republicans would not have carried the state in every Presidential election since 1964.
You live in Monroe County. That is one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Obama will carry Monroe county by a larger percentage than he will Marion county. And that's because of the I.U campus and the education and cultural experiences are different for the people there, compared to the surrounding area.
On a good note, remember we are all on the same side. And we are working towards the same goal.
I must admit, I am VERY PLEASANTLY SURPRISED at the number of people here with ties to Indiana.
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stillcool
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:37 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
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I live in MA now. I've lived in NY, PA, and FL. People are people wherever I go. I sense that there are many people that for the first time in their lives, feel free to like, admire, and respect a black man..and yes, even elect him the next President. It's like a collective sigh of being free of oppressive societal ideas and ideals that held them hostage for generations.
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struggle4progress
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:30 PM
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18. Recent poll says Indiana tied: |
Juche
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:31 PM
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19. I'm in eastern Indiana |
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Edited on Mon Oct-06-08 11:33 PM by Juche
The only parts I know are Monroe Country and Eastern Indiana. I live in Mike Pence's district. The reality is Pence's opponent, Barry Welsh, won 40% of the vote in 2006. Welsh is not a blue dog southern democrat, he is a pro-government progressive. He even supports HR676, medicare for all. I hope to god he gets it and I get a democratic congressman who actually listens to my complaints.
I have seen more Welsh than Pence signs, and more Obama than McCain signs here. My district went Bush by about a 20-25% margin in 2004 but you add in the new voters who were added, the disgust over the GOP and the economic desperation and that margin will be alot lower this time.
There are a fair share of Hannitized morons though. I will not deny that. I think it is partly just the fact that they are not really embarassed to be open about it. Ignorance doesn't really come across as something to be ashamed of where I live. Part o fme wonders if every part of the country has ignorant, dogmatic neocons but they just keep it private whereas here they brag about it.
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shimmergal
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Mon Oct-06-08 11:58 PM
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22. Thanks for the on-the-scene report!, |
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I'm at least a sixth-generation Hoosier and lived there until about ten years ago. Most of what you posted sounds straight-on. I too am amazed to find MSM pundits listing Indiana in the "possible Dem" category!
But here's some things to keep in mind, and maybe help you win over a few undecideds.
The woman in Seymour may actually have been told that. It happens more often than you think. I go to a liberals' discussion group, and since the one clergyman member died, the remaining regulars except for me are all atheists. Now their belief system doesn't bother me--I'm an Episcopalian with agnostic and pagan subsets of belief--but when they get "turned on" to the topic of religion, even I'm annoyed. It comes across as "Look how smart I am because I don't believe in God." Now of course not even a majority of Democrats are like this, but one or two exposures can really cut deep for the ordinary church-goer.
Perhaps more than most states, Indiana residents inherit their political allegiance. My mother was a Republican, but her political beliefs were based on HER parents', and drawn from the Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt ideals. She was an Eisenhower/Rockefeller republican and couldn't vote for Barry Goldwater because he was too extreme.
Southern Indiana is not thoroughly Republican. That band you mentione across the state's mid-south, --Seymour-Bedford-Mitchell-- is probably host to more kooky Repubs than some of its other parts. Evansville and some surrounding counties were traditionally Democratic, at least till recently--that southwestern quadrant was known for bitter partisan struggles at election time. I had a magazine delivery route in the 1990s that went around southern Indiana. The people I talked to along the way weren't _nearly_ as upset about Monica-gate as the RW-ers and the MSM were. Their attitudes ranged from "They all do it" to "He's doing an OK job; he should have some perks."
Now possibly the Clintons had the key to more Hoosiers' loyalties than Obama does; because of the race factor especially, I don't know how much may be transferable to Obama. But Biden would be a good drawing card, I'd think. He speaks their language.
Good luck, and thanks for doing all that work! I hope both our states go blue!
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aaaaaa5a
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Tue Oct-07-08 12:25 AM
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25. Your comments are great! |
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Especially about religion. I think Dems that live in dark blue states sometimes don't realize what a big deal religion is for a lot of people, and how much the issue hurts us.
What do you think of Bill Maher? Does he help or hurt us? Does his anti-religion stance turn some people off? I am aware of one person here in Indiana that canceled his HBO subscription over him.
For the record, I think he's great. He's one of the VERY FEW liberals that actually has a backbone! But the religious stereotyping of Dems view of religion makes it harder to turn a state like Indiana blue.
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Voltaire
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Tue Oct-07-08 12:37 AM
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26. I'm afraid you're right about Jill |
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Her campaign has not been very visible here in Marion County. But I hear she is going to get a couple of ads up this week. She has Bill Richardson's p.r. guy working with her now.
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renate
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Tue Oct-07-08 01:28 AM
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27. thanks for the report! I had no idea that Indiana was so... well, dim |
Indiana_Dem
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Tue Oct-07-08 02:35 AM
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28. I'm in North Central IN, and every samples of canvassing I'm getting shows Obama up. |
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There are a lot of disgruntled people here. We're sick and tired of it!
We've been working very hard. I'm in Cass County, a traditionally Republican red area that seems to vote in Democratic mayors all the time. Hit hard by factory closings. Strong union background. History of Iris & Italian Catholics that came during the railroad days...traditionally Democrats. They are here. Many are just indoctrinated by the 3 hour every day Rush Limbaugh radio show and Fox News. Strong religious leanings, too. But they are weary of 8 years of Bush and of being lied to about the war, etc.
The Dems are getting stronger. They were practically dead 4 years ago. The awakening started after '04. We ousted Chocola and began with Donnelly in the 2nd district. Yes, he's conservative but just enough to get elected and to have some representation for Dems in Congress.
The farmers around the city can't stand Daniels because of daylight savings time he enacted.
I wish they also knew more about McLame's willingness to cut ethanol subsidies even though I don't see the future in it anyway. It would be a good issue for them to know. They might just flip on that one.
All of my canvassing is showing good returns for Obama. It is totally awesome. Lots of volunteers, too. And we're only 50k in the county. Hopefully, we can deliver some needed votes in the case of problems in the bigger areas!
We're trying really hard. Many Republicans are for Obama from my canvassing surveys in the past 2 months.
I'm 44 and lived here most of my life. I've never seen things leaning so blue here. Please hope and pray for this state that always projects a win first for the Republicans on the news! If we turned blue it would set the tone for the whole evening on election night!!!!!!! Please! Send good vibes our way! We'll do the rest of the work needed! I promise!
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Stop Cornyn
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Tue Oct-07-08 04:07 AM
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30. Thanks! Indiana will be a nailbiter so every bit helps. |
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