Dear DUers: The Polls are Going to Tighten...Stay Steady

[alcibiades_mystery]

Character attacks work, especially the terrorist stuff. They won't work ENOUGH, but they will tighten the polls. You need to chill and keep doing what you're doing. McCain may pick up some uncommitteds, but he's not going to erode Obama's position, and there aren't enough uncommitteds for him to grab.

So, keep on working, and hold tight.

[FSogol]

1. True and good adivce. K&R. n/t

[occe]

2. Good advice

I don't like these new poll numbers, but I suppose you're right :)

[NC_Nurse]

3. I hate this shit. After so many disappointments, it's hard not to be anxious.

I wish the Murikan public didn't eat up this negative stuff. It's always so frightening and disillusioning.
I hope you're right that it won't make that much of a difference in the end. Sigh.

[opihimoimoi]

4. KnR

:toast:

Come, we go surfing.....

[demokatgurrl]

5. They always do anyway, as the election gets nearer

He just has to have a big lead going in.

[leftist.]

6. It's only two polls though, right?

The CBS poll and today's Hotline. Both can be easily explained (especially the Hotline). Are there others that I don't know about.

[occe]

7. Zogby

[GarbagemanLB]

8. thanks, worried guy who just joined yesterday.

[occe]

12. Is there something wrong with me joining yesterday?

:(

[racaulk]

20. No, there isn't.

Unfortunately, in the weeks heading up to any election we get a lot of new users that register here for the sole purpose of disrupting. Based on that, some people like to treat all newbies with suspicion, whether it is deserved or not, and try to bully those that may say something even slightly out of line.

Based on what I've read in this one thread, the snark you received wasn't deserved. So I would like to apologize to you on behalf of that DUer, and welcome you to DU.

Please feel free to jump in and get involved. We don't all bite. :hi:

[occe]

22. Thanks for the message

Thanks :) Definitely not trying to cause disruption, and I was confused why someone would be rude to me :) Definitely a big Obama supporter, as I drove 8 hours to St. Paul to watch his "acceptance" speech on June 3. :) Thanks for the welcome message.

[gatorboy]

9. Zogby?

The same Zogby that called it for Kerry, right? :rofl:

[occe]

13. that made me laugh

haha you're right. :)

[SuperTrouper]

18. The same ZogB.S. that says: McCain Landslide

[hogwyld]

10. Thanks! I never did subscribe to some hopes

that Obama would win by 20 pts. The GOP has plenty of experience at this character assassination, and figured that the final margin will be around 3-4 pts. due to the polarization of this country. It's going to take a lot of time and effort to get this country purple again.

[ShortnFiery]

11. No, I don't believe it. The M$M is pushing this but the political climate is ripe for *blow back* .

Stay clear of the back blast area because Lee Atwater's clutch of "divide and conquer" cultural warfare will NOT work when people are suffering financially.

Now don't forget, like the blessed figurative "claymore" - always place "FRONT TOWARD ENEMY" :spray: :P

[RichGirl]

14. We will win if everyone keeps working and...

If everyone who registered gets out and VOTES. Honestly, what could blow this election for us is if we become over-confident and become lax and not as commited to every single vote.

[renie408]

15. RCP has tightened by .7 since Monday. It'll be interesting to see where Gallup is today. n/t

[tpi10d]

16. I'm ecouraged so far..

Rasumssen held steady today w/ Obama +8. Research 2000 has Obama +11 (McCain picked up a point today). We'll see what Gallup has to say in a couple of hours.

The economy is splashed over the front pages. While I tend to agree with you these character attacks do work, maybe this time the wind is at our backs and the damage will be minimal.

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Some polls will tighten

I still think the election will be over by 10pm EST on November 4, but I simply cannot tolerate another round of the Worry Brigade running around here.

[Overseas]

19. Hold on tight and tell folks all about McLiar's plans for healthcare

-- Add medical benefits to taxable income.
-- Cut medicare benefits
-- Offer a $5000 CREDIT for health insurance -- a tax credit that will only cover part of the insurance you will need


That and the Warmonger's vision of our future going from war to war chasing the last drops of oil, continuing the huge tax breaks for big oil companies and the top two percent
should do it.


Remember-- Country Club First

[suston96]

21. Check out this link. Looks good for Obama/Biden....but.....scroll down to Kerry/Bush 2004....

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htm

And that was On Nov 1, 2004........

[regnaD kciN]

26. I'd ignore that site, if I were you...

The creator, a rather zealous former DUer, always seems to have the same answer: his studies "prove" that the Democratic nominee is sure to win an easy victory...and, if he or she winds up losing, the same studies "prove" there was voter fraud. :crazy:

In other words: heads I win, tails you lose. :eyes:

[Tesibria]

23. Agreed!!! eom

[OakCliffDem]

24. The polls will even flip over to McCain once more before the election

There is no reason to be concerned. Obama is ahead by at least 10%, and always has been.

The Main Stream Media owns these polls. The polls are not there to provide the public with information; the polls are there to entice the public into watching their television programs and seeing the advertisements.

The closer the election, the larger the viewer audience. If the polls flip and flop the lead, it produces an even larger audience.

Do not panic if there is a lead change in the polls - it was a planned lead change by the MSM.

Obama is ahead. Obama has always been ahead. Obama is going to win.

[regnaD kciN]

25. It has NOTHING to do with "character attacks"...

Dedicated poll-watchers should check out this excellent post from Chris Bowers over at OpenLeft. He makes the point that Obama is already just about at the top of his threshold (and, indeed, one that would result in a "landslide" victory) and, since polls will naturally fluctuate, there's really no place for him to go but down. As long as he remains somewhere between +3 and +8 in the averages, there's no cause for panic.

[Waiting For Everyman]

27. Gallup today widened again - 52 Obama, 41 McC.

[regnaD kciN]

29. Actually, that was yesterday's results...

The new Gallup results are generally released around noon eastern time.

So far, the only results for today that have been released have been:

Reuters/Zogby: O 48 (+1), M 44 (-1)
dKos/R2K: O 51 (even), M 41 (even) -- with a strong polling day for Obama yesterday (+12)

Unless someone leaks it, Rasmussen won't be until 9:30 eastern, Diageo/Hotline a bit earlier (and it will be interesting to see which weird party weighting they come up with today), and GWU/Battleground sometime between Rasmussen and Gallup. (Personally, I miss the days when there were only two daily trackers; all these new polls just clutter the picture up, and I think some are based on really questionable models. I'd say the dKos/R2K is the only reliable one of the bunch of newcomers, and only then if you correct for what seems to be a steady 2%-3% tilt toward Democrats.)

[Essene]

28. 100% agree. Folks need to not fall for the bait, need to focus on issues...