My numerical incompetence - Ignore this thread!

[Franks Wild Years]

Look, women traditionally outvote men. That's a trend which has been the case for the last few Presidential elections, it was the case in the 2006 mid-terms, too.

I quote from Rasmussen's analysis of their latest poll:

"Obama now leads by 13 points among women but trails by two among men."

Now, here's the thing. If women - as was the case in 2004 - outvote men by around 52 - 48% should that not equate to a larger than five point advantage for Obama? Is my math faulty (I must admit I wonder at times if I have some sort of numerical dyslexia when it comes to anything more than simple addition) or if a theoretical election were to take place right now and Obama was to post a 13 point lead among women and a deficit of a mere two percentage points among men, would he not win by a heck of a lot more than five points?

[mohc]

1. Depends on the rounding

If Obama were up exactly by 13% among women and down exactly 2% among men, then an exact 52-48 split between women and men would result in Obama being ahead by 5.8% (.52 * 13 - .48 * 2 = 5.8). That being said Obama might actually be leading 51.4-45.6, which would be exactly 5.8%, and Ras would report that as 51-46. You also have to take into account the lead might only be 12.6% among women or he might trail 2.4% among men.

[Franks Wild Years]

2. Thanks for that. I'm just bad with numbers!

:)