If Obama's lead over McCain passes 7%, & his % passes 50 (avg), can we say he's "closing the deal"?

[Brotherjohn]

I'm talking poll averages, rather than one snapshot (Gallup looks great right now, but it IS just one poll).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Right now, Obama's average poll lead is 6.2%, and climbing. His average polling percentage is approaching 50% (49.4). The highest he's ever polled ahead of McCain was ~7-7.5, and we're heading for that less than a month before the election. He's up in nearly every Battleground state, with his numbers still rising, and the national polling is reflecting that.

Even if he maintains his current numbers, time is running out for McCain. Obama would win in a landslide if the election were held today. So if he passes those benchmarks, can we shut up all this pundit talk of him "not closing the deal"?

[cali]

1. no.

I think we can say he's closed the deal. He's closing the deal now. The window of opportunity for McCain is closing fast.

[still_one]

2. No. Everything is being done to throw people off the voter roles

unless something is done about that, we have problems

[TlalocW]

3. No

Because for the pundits out there, the deal is like the horizon. You can walk toward it forever, but you'll never reach it.

TlalocW

[NashVegas]

4. Ridiculous Argument In the First Place

The last two elections have been squeakers and in one of them, Bush didn't even with the election. Barack Obama doesn't have to win 75% of the vote, nor does he have to poll at 55%.

[skipos]

Why can't Obama get to 60%?

It must be good news for McCain!

[The Stranger]

5. Wow, this post is simply fucking amazing to me.

You could knock me over with a feather. The past two Presidential election nights have featured Democratic exultation -- only to end up with the horror continuing the next morning for eight motherfucking years.

Why not simply keep it all in until our guy is literally standing in the White House?

The need to celebrate early -- I just don't get it.

[dpbrown]

6. Exactly - don't count the votes before leave for college

That's my electoral college joke.

[Brotherjohn]

7. I'm not really celebrating. I think the "close the deal" argument among the pundits is ridiculous.

I do think, however, that their repeated hammering of it lends the impression that there is more of a "horse race" and sways some undecided voters. The meme itself can actually make it harder for him to "close the deal" on Nov. 4th. Perception is important, particularly among low information undecided voters.

I just think the meme is stupid.

"Obama is leading and increasing his lead" is factual reporting.

"Obama is not closing the deal" is NOT factual reporting.

I just wish the media would stick to factual reporting.

[jzodda]

8. NO

I think we have a long way to go! October surprises, and the "racist" factor all play into my caution. We have to work 2x as hard now!

[Brotherjohn]

9. TO ALL here... I'm NOT arguing for complacency. I'm just saying the "can't close the deal" meme...

...is idiotic. Of couse, Obama is puling out a lead at a good time. But also of course, the deal is never "closed" until the Electoral College votes.

But by pushing this ridiculous meme and others, the media is doing everything they can to make sure he doesn't close the deal. That, I think, is dangerous.

[treestar]

10. Deal cannot be closed before Nov 4

This is a right wing talking point.

[Mz Pip]

11. Not until

the electors vote in January. Then I will rest easy. McCain will fight this tooth and nail. expect lawsuit filings on Nov 5. He will not be a graceful loser.