ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:35 PM
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100 DUers (2 per state) X 15 phone calls each = A poll we can trust! |
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So what's stopping us? :shrug: :evilgrin:
Many of us already take the Zogby Survey poll so what's to stop us from 'borrowing' the format and questions to conduct our own telephone survey to check the results published by Zogby?
It could be fun and edumacationable. :) What should we call it?
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quaoar
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:38 PM
Response to Original message |
1. Statistically irrelevant? |
ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
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Do you know how many people are included in the average poll? :evilgrin:
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quaoar
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:54 PM
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #6 |
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Are you telling me we can't conduct a poll just as accurately as anyone else? Why would that be? A random telephone survey is just that, random. You can argue all you want about how to weight the numbers after we collect the raw data. :)
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quaoar
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:29 PM
Response to Reply #7 |
18. No, I'm not saying that |
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But if the survey isn't demographically valid, it won't mean much.
Two per state, for instance, is not a good idea. That gives California the same weight as Wyoming.
Your survey idea would be great if it can be made statistically valid.
I'm not trying to rain on your parade.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:42 PM
Response to Reply #18 |
21. What is a 'statistically valid' approach...... |
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......to conducting a national poll? We need a framework to start with and I am NOT a polling expert! :)
I just figure we have people in every state and by sharing the load we could start doing our own polling. I think we should call it the TIA (Truth in America!) poll. ;-)
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quaoar
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Fri Sep-03-04 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
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needs to reflect the electorate -- racially, geographically, income-wise, etc.
You don't want a poll that has 65 percent of the respondents female if women only make up 51 percent of the nation.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #22 |
23. I understand that but..... |
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.....how the hell do they weight a poll of 1000 respondents for all of those factors and still get a MOE of +/- 3 or 4%? What do you do, call 20,000 people until you get just the right mix?
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Joanne98
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:40 PM
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I don't have free long distance though. But count me in anyway.
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faithnotgreed
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:43 PM
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4. i thought the same thing this afternoon. i thought if we got 500 |
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of us which we should be able to do out of this group... then each could make 5 calls or less.. for a large enough sample
and i thought we should weight it a bit more towards reg republicans.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 06:48 PM
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5. I'm not sure about how or why you would 'weight' the poll....... |
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.......but I would make the calls at random and take data on registration, party affiliation and likelihood that they will vote.
Then you can weigh the results on the basis of who responded. :)
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faithnotgreed
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:09 PM
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14. thats a good thought. i initially figured mine would serve 2 purposes: |
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one, it would give an idea of how the republicans are tilting, and also we would stack the deck slightly against us, giving i believe a more accurate picture.
we are pretty certain that more republicans are voting kerry than democrats voting bush
but again, this was an initial opinion, and totally unscientific!
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Guaranteed
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:00 PM
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8. We'd need more than that per state. |
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That we give us the 30 needed for each state if we randomize it, but we'd need more like 100 for it to be really reliable.
This is a GREAT idea, though.
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Renew Deal
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:03 PM
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Guaranteed
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Fri Sep-03-04 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #8 |
24. kick...anyone? anyone? nt |
Renew Deal
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:02 PM
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There are also some other bright math people here.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:04 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
12. Trust me, I posted this with him in mind! |
LeftCoast
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:03 PM
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11. By treating each state equally |
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Edited on Fri Sep-03-04 07:04 PM by LeftCoast
wouldn't you be strongly favoring small population states far out of their proportion in terms of impact on the race?
on edit: I see others have brought up the 'weighting issue'.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:09 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
13. Well if enough of us stopped wasting time fretting over other polls..... |
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......and started conducting our own, we could conceivably do state polls individually and roll them into a national poll.
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LeftCoast
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
15. I'm not criticising your effort... |
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...Just trying to add what I sort of remember from Stat 101, 8 years ago. :)
I see no reason why DU could not produce a volunteer survey that is scientifically valid. You're basicaly talking about open-sourcing a poll. I think it's a great idea.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:21 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
16. Well it beats reading all the DOOM & GLOOM poll threads! |
LeftCoast
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #16 |
Momma Mia
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #13 |
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Edited on Fri Sep-03-04 07:38 PM by Momma Mia
To paraphrase your words somewhat, if I may ...
"Stop wasting time fretting over ANY of these polls!"
The only ones that really count are the exit ones taken on November 2nd.!!!
Don'tcha think, huh?
Just let all the hullabaloo from the RNC calm down for awhile and keep your chin up girl!
We're gonna make it! :thumbsup:
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 07:34 PM
Response to Reply #17 |
20. What exit polls are you referring to?...... |
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......IIRC, VNS was disbanded after they screwed the 2000 and 2002 exit polls and were sold to the Saudis by the media consortium that owned them. :(
Is there someone else doing exit polls now or might I be trying to set us up to do it? :)
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dreadneck
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Fri Sep-03-04 09:30 PM
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The only scientifically valid poll is the election. The rest is a weird sort of mathematical theatre masquerading as social science.
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IdaBriggs
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Fri Sep-03-04 09:33 PM
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26. I made my living analyzing numbers for a while. |
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Still do it somewhat. I'll help with that portion. :)
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David Zephyr
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Fri Sep-03-04 10:18 PM
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27. Do It By Zip Codes or Area Codes. It Would Be A Better Start. |
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I think you might be on to something, Paranoid Pat.
I have worked with professional pollsters and the concerns given above about statistics are legit, but should not present an obstacle to your idea.
For our purposes here, it would be helpful to either use telephone area codes or zip codes.
I'd suggest a larger sampling than just 5 calls though.
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ParanoidPat
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Fri Sep-03-04 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
28. I never suggested just 5 calls...... |
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.....what I posted was 2 people per state (each making as many calls as it takes to get) 15 respondents each for a total of 30 per state times 50 states or 1500 respondents. :)
If we can start out small with just a few simple questions we can tweak it as needed and eventually build it up to wherever it takes us.
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