with the way the GOP is fracturing right now, could this be the electoral map in the near future?

[charlie and algernon]

to clarify, this is imagining a race with a dem and two serious conservative candidates, perhaps a social conservative, a traditional economic conservative, and the Dem nominee.

[bluestateguy]

1. I'm not seeing any movement of the numbers in Arkansas

Obama hasn't been there in over 2 years. I suspect that state has a lot of PUMA's as well.

[charlie and algernon]

2. not for THIS election, but possible future elections

if there are two serious conservative candidates, Arkansas could be sniped by the dems.

[Beregond2]

3. I'd be more inclined to put MO in the blue camp than AK.

And I don't think TX is out of the question.

[Cresent City Kid]

4. They're in a fix of their own making

The base of the right has bought in to an ideology that is no longer a majority due to the intellectual curiosity of the middle. Their position is not defensible by those who use reason and facts in an objective way. The GOP is stuck with this group who's positions have calcified for better or worse. They can't win without them, but they can't get enough objective voters to join them, leading to the polls we see today.

[Iris]

7. nicely put! Esp. "due to the intellectual curiosity of the middle. " n/t

[n2doc]

5. GA and TX might be in play

Maybe not this year, but the demographics , especially in Tx, are gonna make these states closer than one might think....Az possibly as well. I think if McCain wern't the nominee, Az would be in play this year.

[quaker bill]

6. No

If the GOP fractures, it will be along ideologic rather than state lines. If two viable right wing parties result from this split, then color pretty much the entire map blue. In only one or two places would fracturing the GOP leave splinters large enough to carry the entire state on their own.

[BlackmanX]

8. I doubt it

The economy is driving this election. The Kerry states will stay blue but some of the red states Obama wins will turn back red. Obama won't get the south because they have a strangle hold on the repub party and right now the repubs couldn't get rid of the southerners if they wanted to. Ar and MO are probably going to stay red