obama will solidly win the popular vote: lichtman's keys to the presidency

[unblock]

i found an article by allan lichtman, who developed the 13 keys to the presidency. the idea is that whoever wins a majority of these 13 factors will win the presidency. there's obviously an element of data-mining in this, but the formula has proven correct in every election except 2000 (assuming you believe shrub actually won).

here's the article from one year ago, predicting an obama win: http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2007/10/the-13-keys-to-the-white-house-why-the-democrats-will-win/

and here is his list of the keys:

The following Keys currently count against the incumbent party.

The party’s losses in the 2006 midterm elections topple Mandate Key 1.
The battle to replace George W. Bush costs the party Contest Key 2.
Bush’s inability to run again in 2008 dooms Incumbency Key 3.
The lack of a second-term policy revolution forfeits Policy Change Key 7.
The disaster in Iraq costs the administration both Foreign/Military Success Key 9 and Failure Key 10.
No GOP candidate equals the charisma of Ronald Reagan or the heroic stature of Dwight Eisenhower, toppling Charisma/National Hero Key 12.
The following three Keys currently favor the incumbent Republican Party.

The absence of social upheavals comparable to the 1960’s, avoids the loss of Social Unrest Key 8.
The failure of scandals to impact the president directly keeps Scandal Key 9 from falling against the GOP.
The Democratic challenger is unlikely to match the charisma of Franklin D. Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy, keeping the Challenger Charisma/Hero Key 13 in line for the incumbents.
The following Keys are uncertain:

Third Party Key 4 depends on whether New York City mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who switched from Republican to independent, chooses to run an insurgent campaign for president.
Short-Term Economy Key 5 and Long-Term Economy Key 6 depend upon uncertain economic forecasts for the upcoming year.


since then, here's my list of changes:

scandal key 9 -- this is heavily tied up in the iraq war failure, but i believe shrub's administration qualifies for scandal, between the lying to congress to get us in to the iraq war, and the torture issue. other things, such as domestic spying, by rights ought to qualify, but there hasn't been the widespread public outrage that's necessary. all in all, though, i think we have to give this one to obama.

challenger charisma key 13 -- with all the talk of late about obama being the next jfk, i think his charisma is apparent. obama gets this key.

third party key 4 -- barr is noise. mclame wins this key.

short-term economy key 5 -- the public consensus is that we are in a recession, or might as well be. we do not (yet) qualify under the "two consecutive terms of declining real gdp" definition, but i strongly believe that nber, the quasi-official arbiter of recession dating, will backdate this contraction to february, or at least to sometime in the third quarter of this year. we are clearly in a contraction. obama wins this one.
long-term economy key 6 -- this is demonstrably true, see http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls obama wins this one.




so my final tally:

KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (FALSE)

KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (FALSE)

KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE)

KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (FALSE)

KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)

KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (FALSE)

KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. (FALSE)

KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

Results: TRUE: 2 KEYS; FALSE: 11 KEYS; UNCERTAIN: 0 KEYS
Prediction: INCUMBENT REPUBLICANS LOSE POPULAR VOTE


so there you have it. obama wins 11 out of 13 keys. mclame is toast.

[unblock]

1. kick

:kick:

[volstork]

2. Great post!

Also interesting to go back to the original article from last October and to see how things have changed since.
Thanks for the info!