A 2.2% McCain lead is greater than a 13.8% Obama Lead

[Coexist]

from Open Left:

The Washington Post maintains a webpage titled "Political Landscape 2008." This webpage has been updated recently enough to reflect Obama's 13.8% polling lead in Pennsylvania, a trend that uses polls released as recently as Wednesday. On this webpage, the Washington Post collects recent polling data, and then declares a state to either be a "battleground," or leaning toward one party or the other. Here are some of their polling averages and diagnoses:

Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)

Notice anything wrong with this list? Could it perhaps be that any state where McCain leads, no matter his margin, is defined as "Leaning Republican?" Could it be that states where Obama leads by 7.3%-13.8% are defined as "battleground states," while states where McCain leads by 2.2%-6.8% are defined as "leaning Republican." Does the uneven math in this strike anyone as problematic?

The Washington Post claims that a 2.2% lead for McCain is larger than a 13.8% lead for Obama. That is objectively wrong and quantifiably unfair. This is as blatantly imbalanced as election reporting can possibly get. For more on this, see my related post on the persistent inability for big media to admit that Obama is over 270 electoral votes, no matter what polling indicates.

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

1. WashPo needs to do something unusual...

...come up with some actual facts to prove their assertions.

[senseandsensibility]

2. kand r

I hope rachel or keith or someone will pick up on this.

[liberal N proud]

3. I have always noticed

Obama can lead by 10 points and he is slightly ahead according to the talking heads. Whereas if McCain is ahead in a poll by as little as 3 points it is a significant lead.

The Obama campaign and us have to beat two entities, the GOP and the M$M

[Cha]

7. We've always had the corporatemediawhores to

fight (in my involvement, anyway)..only now we have the Internet to make them accountable.

We have to call them on it. After Obama wins it will be one constant stream of fighting them off the Obama Biden team leading America.

[Coexist]

8. yet the myth of the 'liberal media' lives on.

[Cha]

16. That's because the blowhatehards spew

it constantly. It is incumbent on us to change that with the facts and thanks for helping with that, FloridaDem.

[NC_Nurse]

4. WTF is that shit?

[BrklynLiberal]

5. and it is sooo blatant!!

[frickaline]

6. I would guess a one-sided race doesn't sell a lot of papers.

[bluethruandthru]

9. Amazing

that there isn't even one state that's "leaning Democratic"! :sarcasm:

[Coexist]

12. its unreal

[terrya]

10. How can Michigan be a battleground state when the McCain campaign has pulled its resources?

Hell, the McCain campaign has all but conceded Michigan to Obama.

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. funny - Obama has a larger lead in Pennsylvania than McCain does in Texas

think about that.

[Coexist]

19. yet Texas is "solid red" and Penn is "a tossup"

[aaaaaa5a]

13. I have sat in my living room for the last 2 weeks...

and tried to figure out how PA was still a battleground state! I don't get it!


To top that, this weekend, the MSM even added IA as a battleground state. It's just more bias we are going to have to work through!

[progressoid]

14. A battleground - - Like Custer's Last Stand

[Cha]

15. Fucking media.. Let them know we notice.

FrenchieCat (1000+ posts) Tue Sep-30-08 02:14 PM
Original message
Here's your "CONTACT THE MEDIA NOW" friendly Assistant! DO SOMETHING!
Whether it is the Push to skew towards McCain, plain ol' GOP bias, blatant sexism, ugly racism, or just totally incorrect reporting.....give media a piece of your mind!

Drop a tip on a good story to our "friends", holler at the biased ones, write a letter to the editor of newspapers!

Don't just get pissed; do something!



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[existentialist]

17. Congressional Quarterly's ratings on these same states:

PA Obama favored
NH Leaning Obama
NJ Obama favored
IA Obama favored
OR Obama favored
MN Obama favored
WI Obama favored
CO Leaning Obama
IN Leaning McCain
OH Leaning Obama
FL No clear favorite
NV Leaning Obama
WV Leaning McCain

CQ also rated Missouri and North Carolina as No Clear Favorite, and if safe, favored, and leaning states electoral votes are counted then it credits Obama with states with 311 electoral votes.

[Coexist]

18. thanks.

[Phx_Dem]

20. The biggest news here is that McCain is struggling to hold

hold the VERY red states (GA, WV, IN) while other moderately red states. Those "leaning Republican" states should be solid Republicans, and he should have large leads.

I think the reason some (VA, NV, CO, FL) of the battleground states are listed as "battleground" even though Obama is head by a larger margin is because they are not traditionally blue states -- they are either red states or go either way and Obama's lead isn't that big so they are being cautious about labeling them Democrat. However, there are several states labeled battleground where the margin is so large (PA, hello??) that it's ridiculous to call it a battleground especially when it votes Dem more often than Red. And Oregon??? Please. Ridiculous.

[Coexist]

22. and even if he loses red states, the fact that they are close will run up Obama's popular vote total

and make it impossible for anyone to question the validity of his victory.

[FrenchieCat]

21. A Black person in America has to be 3 times as good

for it to count. Didn't you know that? :(

[iceman66]

23. Just the media doing whatever it can to skew things toward McCain.

And to provide some pro-active 'cover' for any Repug election fraud.

[AllieB]

24. Exactly! It's CYA for election fraud.

[iceman66]

25. So is all the talk lately about the so-called 'Bradley effect'

If that was real, Obama never would have made it through the primaries.

[Coexist]

26. I think we will see a reverse bradley effect

republicans who would never admit to their friends they would vote for Obama, but will fill in that oval when they are alone in the voting booth with their conscience.

[underpants]

27. Real Clear Politics (yes even them) took Va. off the "Swing state" category

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7426111