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Are There Any Polls That Measure or Predict Voter Turnout? Can We Beat 60% Turnout?

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Median Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:28 PM
Original message
Are There Any Polls That Measure or Predict Voter Turnout? Can We Beat 60% Turnout?
I know that there are hundreds of polls out there. However, are there any polls that predict election day turnout? The United States has some of the lowest turnout rates for an industrial country:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout

Since the 1970s, turnout has never exceeded 60%. We have heard about Obama's massive voter registration efforts, as well as Palin's efforts to fire up the racists to show up en masse. My question is whether there are any polls that predict voter turnout? If so, are we on pace to exceed 60%?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Voter_turnout

/snip

Election Voting Age Population ¹ Turnout % Turnout of VAP
2004 215,694,000 122,295,345 56.69%
2000 205,815,000 105,586,274 51.31%
1996 196,511,000 96,456,345 49.08%
1992 189,529,000 104,405,155 55.09%
1988 182,778,000 91,594,693 50.11%
1984 174,466,000 92,652,680 53.11%
1980 164,597,000 86,515,221 52.56%
1976 152,309,190 81,555,789 53.55%
1972 140,776,000 77,718,554 55.21%
1968 120,328,186 73,199,998 60.83%
1964 114,090,000 70,644,592 60.92%
1960 109,159,000 68,838,204 63.06%


/snip

My take is that if we crack 60%, we have a very good chance of winning. However, if turnout is in the low 50s due to abivalence or over confidence, then we are in trouble.
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Marsala Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. We should definitely beat 2004's turnout
Breaking 60% would be incredible, but it is possible.
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elocs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. Here in the upper midwest (WI, MN, IA) we routinely manage to get 60%+ turnouts.
Great when compared to the rest of the country, but pretty pathetic to think that 1/3 of the people who could vote cannot be bothered. It's kind of pathetic when in third world countries that get the vote for the first time people will walk many miles and perhaps risk their lives to cast their ballots.
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Median Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Israel Has 80% Turnout; United Kingdom and France Have 76% Turnout
While I think more people will try to vote then any time since 1968, I also think that Republican efforts at voter suppression will also be unprecedented.
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:52 PM
Response to Original message
4. Bush really has increased turn out.
I've heard sociologists explain how low voter turn out is a sign of satisfaction, of acceptance of the status quo by the have-nots of society. Under Bush, they are far more dissatisfied--this is why a message of hope, more than a message of "me too", resonates in Bush's America.
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Essene Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-13-08 07:57 PM
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5. "We" absolutely must. This is a moment of a lifetime. A great responsibility
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