I know that there are hundreds of polls out there. However, are there any polls that predict election day turnout? The United States has some of the lowest turnout rates for an industrial country:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnoutSince the 1970s, turnout has never exceeded 60%. We have heard about Obama's massive voter registration efforts, as well as Palin's efforts to fire up the racists to show up en masse. My question is whether there are any polls that predict voter turnout? If so, are we on pace to exceed 60%?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election#Voter_turnout/snip
Election Voting Age Population ¹ Turnout % Turnout of VAP
2004 215,694,000 122,295,345 56.69%
2000 205,815,000 105,586,274 51.31%
1996 196,511,000 96,456,345 49.08%
1992 189,529,000 104,405,155 55.09%
1988 182,778,000 91,594,693 50.11%
1984 174,466,000 92,652,680 53.11%
1980 164,597,000 86,515,221 52.56%
1976 152,309,190 81,555,789 53.55%
1972 140,776,000 77,718,554 55.21%
1968 120,328,186 73,199,998 60.83%
1964 114,090,000 70,644,592 60.92%
1960 109,159,000 68,838,204 63.06% /snip
My take is that if we crack 60%, we have a very good chance of winning. However, if turnout is in the low 50s due to abivalence or over confidence, then we are in trouble.