Three weeks ago, Obama held an average lead of 48-45.

[Drunken Irishman]

His lead now sits at 50-42 on average.

So in three weeks, Obama is +2 and Mccain is -3.

Not much shift in this race.

I bring this up because tomorrow will mark the final three weeks of this campaign. The race has been generally stable nationally for the last three weeks. Yes, eight points is a lot bigger than three, but it shows you how difficult of a task McCain has to not only get this back into a dead heat, but win this thing. Obama has had a fantastic three weeks and it's been a net gain of only five points.

If McCain has an equally fantastic three weeks, at worse, Obama will probably hold a 48-45 lead on election day. In my opinion, that is unlikely, but the worst case scenario here.

Just thought I'd throw that out there. Three weeks is a ton of time, but the race hasn't dramatically shifted in that span. Obama was already trending up again and his lead isn't much different than it was three weeks before that, where he held a 49-44 lead on average. Of course, the Republican Convention gave McCain a huge bounce, but that lead only lasted eight days and it was no larger than 2.9.

[occe]

1. Interesting

Thanks for sharing, and I think you're right on....thanks for expressing your thoughts with us.

:patriot:

[Sodan]

2. GOTV!

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Let me add onto this...

I believe had the DNC been held after the Republican National Convention, Obama's lead would have only continued to grow to about where it is right now. The thing is, McCain's only sustained lead since Obama won the nomination came shortly after the convention. It was a post-convention bump and nothing more. Obama had already begun to climb up the polls only a few days after the Republican Convention ended, with McCain reaching his peak early on in that sustained week of polling above Obama.

I don't think McCain can come back because there is no Republican Convention to get him back into this. Unless Obama has a meltdown Wednesday, this election will be over and I think you will see this manifest next week. Obama's lead will stabilize, staying anywhere from 5-10 points nationally and there isn't anything McCain can do about it.

[AllentownJake]

6. McCain's post convention bounce

was an unknown person being pushed into the national spotlight. Than she opened her mouth.

[msallied]

4. As usual, your perspective...

is excellent. :headbang:

[aaaaaa5a]

5. recommend!!!!

That was an outstanding read! Very informative