What do think Obama's chances of winning the election are?

[Liberal_in_LA]

Late night poll! Real answers please, not pie in the sky.

[musicblind]

1. I am 90% sure. My only worry is the republicans doing something to STEAL it. n/t

[JenniferJuniper]

2. They will not go down easily or quietly

I think it will be hard for them to pull off a flat-out steal this time, but I wouldn't put anything past them.

[Omnibus]

5. If it's still a 6 point race, and they steal it,

will we stand for it?

After we rolled over in 2000 and 2004, will we let it happen again?

[AndyTiedye]

6. Yes. They Have Almost Everybody Convinced that the "Bradley Effect" is 6%

So the "Diebold Effect" or the "Blackwell Effect*" can take 6% and get away with it.

[PFunk]

3. About 90%

It will really depend on the ground game as a Obama win will depend on getting overwheming amounts of people to vote to counter-act any repug cheating.

[MtUpWithWngsAsEgles]

4. Voter turnout is the key

People have to get their butts to the polls. If we do our part I am 100% sure Obama wins.

[AndyTiedye]

7. Two Worries. Either They Steal It, Or…

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I said 85%

We're still a bit too far out to make it higher. As a gambler for 20+ years I realize you can't assume normalcy over an extended period, not enough to have assert 90+% confidence level. But every day we move forward it bumps maybe a half percent.

[truthisfreedom]

9. This post is made of solid oak (wood.) Feel free to knock on it.

knock knock!


Who's there?

Obama.

Dude! I know you!

I got this.

[Liberal_in_LA]

10. The new poll numbers coming in are reassuring.

Obama 2008


Yikes, one person has Obama's chances at less than 50%. YIKES!

[mvd]

11. 95%

5% takes into account possible instances of massive fraud, martial law, the Bradley effect and a new war/attack.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. I'm 100% sure.

I'm now more interested in the various senate races.

Feel free to mock me if I'm wrong.

[Vektor]

13. I'm 100% sure Obama would win in a clean election.

But the Republicans got away with stealing the last two elections, so I doubt they won't try it again this time.

[hogwyld]

14. I put less than 50%

Cause I tend to work harder when I'm down.

[Liberal_in_LA]

15. ahhh...thanks for the clarification.

[high density]

16. If he's up by 14 pts in a poll with MOE of 3%, then 95% seems about right

:)

[crossroads]

17. 95% sure he will win -providing they don't try to steal it again like the last 2 elections!

[Blasphemer]

18. 100% Sure... stealing will take place in Congressional races

They won't even bother attempting to steal it. McCain isn't important enough to them. There are other races that are close enough for them to steal and they WILL. Their energies will be refocused on blocking President Obama's agenda.

[iceman66]

19. I'd say 65%

if we assume a completely fair election, 95%

[truebrit71]

20. Ask me Nov 5th.

Until then it's all speculation...