Utah Valley University prof says Obama will win big

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.heraldextra.com/content/view/284271/17/">UVU prof says Obama will win big

DeSart and partner Thomas Holbrook, of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, called a close victory for President George Bush in 2004 and a neck-and-neck win for Al Gore in 2000. (OK, that one is still up for debate.)

DeSart's work -- quoted by the likes of the Wall Street Journal -- gives Obama a 354-184 electoral victory on Nov. 4, even though Utah will likely give McCain a comfortable statewide victory with its five electoral votes. DeSart's projection relies heavily on state -- not national -- polling results because of the importance of the Electoral College.

...

Students groan in class when he tells them the projections. (Obama will also win with nearly 53 percent of the popular vote, he says.)

Is there any chance McCain might win?

"I suppose anything is possible, but at this point it looks like a very big hill for him to climb," DeSart said. "The only thing he has to hope for at this point is the infamous October surprise."

The model is always being tuned and this year includes a national poll variable not used before. But other methods of tweaking have been discarded because they made the prediction less accurate.

Aside from the Wall Street Journal, DeSart and Holbrook's work has cropped up everywhere from the U.S. to Poland to Denmark.

Still not convinced? Would you wager a bet?

"It's probably not wise," says DeSart before pausing. "That sounds like I'm bragging. I think my colleagues realize this is a fairly accurate model."

[FrenchieCat]

1. Let it Be!

Let it be, let it be, let it be. Whisper words of wisdom, let it be.

[BrklynLiberal]

2. Sounds good to me....

:thumbsup:

Between this and the Scholastic voting, it is starting to look very good.

[PretzelWarrior]

3. please, let it be true. I cannot imagine the damage to us

in this country if something shocking and craven took place to attempt to steal it for McCain with everything so obviously tilting toward Obama at this late date.

[Wapsie B]

4. I can't believe there'd be 47% voting for McCain or third-party.

But then I don't know offhand what the largest popular vote win was.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. In modern American history? Probably LBJ in 1964.

He won with 61% of the popular vote.

Nixon won with 60% in 1972.

Reagan won with 58% in 1984.

If Obama wins with 53%, it'll be the highest percentage a candidate has received since Bush Senior in 1988 (53% as well).

[Wapsie B]

6. I just found this:

In 1936 FDR defeated Landon with a 24.3% margin in the popular vote, which exceeds Nixon's 23.2% margin in 1972.

[ej510]

7. That would be awesome.

[jefferson_dem]

8. Thanks for posting. Here's a link to the article in PS, for those who are interested.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7437498&mesg_id=7437498

[WillyT]

9. And Here's The Professor's Webpage:

Link: http://research.uvsc.edu/DeSart/forecasting/index.html

:kick: