If you deduct 10% from Obama's polling average then add 5% to McSame's, we're still ahead.

[Stop Cornyn]

That is to say, if you give Obama ONLY those states where he is at least 10% ahead in the average of recent polls (that's 238 electoral votes) and if you give McCain all of those states where he is ahead by any margin whatsoever PLUS you also concede to McCain all of the tossup states (where neither candidate leads by more than 5%), even under this scenario we're still ahead of McCain by 238 electoral votes to 225 (with remaining 75 electoral votes comprised of "swing states" were Obama has a lead greater than 5% but less than 10%).

Don't get cocky.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/