I am all for concern, but a McCain win would be the most extraordinary political event since forever

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

I like concerned posts. The intellect worries and anticipates problems. Cheer-leading smacks of the modes of religion and militant nationalism to me, two of my most unfavorite things.

But as a factual historical sort of thing McCain really cannot win.

Obama is in a better position today than Bill Clinton was in 1996 or Bush in 1988 or Reagan in 1980. And I am factoring race into that statement.

Obama is in a MUCH better position than Clinton in 1992 or Bush in 2004, and it never once crossed my mind that Kerry would actually win in '04.

(He is not quite as well positioned as LBJ in '64, Nixon in '72 or Reagan in '84, but they were incumbent presidents.)

[Marsala]

1. Yep. McCain needs a Truman comeback

He doesn't need a game changer. He needs a miracle. And those only come once per century.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. Dewey was probably never as well psoitioned as Obama

Polling was WAY cruder back then.

[racaulk]

2. Reagan in 2000?

;)

Otherwise, I wholeheartedly agree. K&R

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. thanks!

[OmahaBlueDog]

8. Yeah, but the only Reagan/Carter debate took place in late October

Given that we've had 2 debates, and a veep debate, something truly unusual would have to happen tomorrow night for anything like a Reaganian turnaround.

Also, as I've said elsewhere -- I'm pretty dubious of those polling numbers showing Carter that far ahead at that point. I lived in a very Democratic neighborhood in Maryland as a teen; the parents of most kids I knew and teachers were either voting Reagan or Anderson.

[Mz Pip]

3. There are two things happening

here. some of us are having an internal battle going on between our emotional and rational self. One one hand, I can look at the numbers, both nationally and statewide, and feel secure and confident. Then the emotions kick in - doubt, fear, mistrust and anxiety over what might happen in the next 3 weeks.

I don't start concern threads, but I understand where they are coming from because I go through the same roller coaster ride on a daily basis.

I have to remind myself that McCain is no Reagan, no matter how many times he invokes his name. And Obama is a far stronger candidate than Kerry. Sometimes I have to remind myself of these things several times a day.

[amyrose2712]

4. You said it in one word...mistrust. nt

[stillcool]

12. Doubt, fear, mistrust, and anxiety..

that's me. I am very cautious with my emotional barometer. I won't allow myself to get too high, and I won't go too low. There is absolutely nothing that would convince me of any outcome except Nov. 4th.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

7. ...

[theothersnippywshrub]

9. I agree. But I still worry about the pollsters turnout models being wrong.

If those models are mistakenly favoring democrats the race will be closer than the polls show. If they are mistakenly favoring republicans the race will be a bigger blowout than the polls show.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. I have comforting information for you > > >

Gallup has started publishing their daily tracking poll with two turn-out models.

Today's is:

Registered Voters Obama 51 McCain 42
Likely voters (high turnout model) Obama 53 McCain 43
Likely voters (traditional model) Obama 51 McCain 45

So traditional likely voter model is worst, but still good.

[theothersnippywshrub]

11. I saw that yesterday and was glad to see the traditional model still showwing

an Obama lead. I probably will worry until the 270th electoral vote is called for Obama on November 4th. Although if Indiana is called for Obama before that I will start celebrating immediately.

[terrya]

13. You can sympathize with people's anxieties about voter fraud, right?

I think it's insulting for someone to post their worries about voting fraud and get the "thanks for your concern" reply.