Newsweek: 13 point Bounce from Bush Convention. Horrible Negatives Work

[WiseMen]

Thursday Night and Friday Night.

Bush 52, Kerry 41, Nader 3.

People always say they hate negative ads. But research
repeatedly shows that opinions are changed by negative
information.

Vets now say Kerry's military service makes them less
likely to vote for him -- a huge swing from earlier in
the year.

Internals reported point to the SwiftSmear as part of the
cause but opinion must have been "tipped" by Convention rhetoric
because Kerry was ahead by 2 point in same poll before the
convention.

Many PhDs will be written on this campaign. Majority say they
don't trust negative information on Kerry, but their
other answers show that their views have changed.

[goclark]

1. The fix is in , no way is this true!

[PCIntern]

4. You're wrong, goclark

there's no FUCKING way this is true

[Bucky]

16. It's a myth that ostriches stick their heads in the sand to avoid bad news

Ostriches are really vicious animals who know how to figure out when to go on the attack and when to run and fight another day. We should be more like ostriches. Now is the time to attack, not to foolishly deny the reality that the Bushies are very good at scaring people into voting for them.

[mbali]

22. I think we should assume its true - and fight like we're 11 points behind

Even if it's not accurate, it's good for us to fight hard. And if it is accurate, we HAVE to fight hard.

[Tatiana]

36. Exactly.

We cannot nonchalant this election or go on autopilot like Gore did in 2000. We are fighting evil, in the truest sense of the word, and you can't reason or compromise with evil. We have to take on Bush and not back down at all.

[LoZoccolo]

38. I'm like one of the only people that agrees with you.

No one here questions when we're ahead, but as soon as a poll (or two, in this case) say something they don't want, they freak. It's all a big conspiracy! I think I saw one person talk about why that one Gallup poll a few weeks ago was an outlier, and give like reasons for it. We know that part of this is a normal bounce, but then, I don't hear much about what we should do about the rest from these people complaining about the polls.

[bossfish]

2. Just saw that on MSNBC...

..the anchor seemed pleased.

Wouldn't make too much of it, though.

Like the job numbers, it will likely adjust downward.

[mhr]

3. Well There - All Of Our Fears Are Confirmed

eom

[Walt Starr]

5. Link please

And I notice you seem to be the first to post negative p
Just an observation.

[kstewart33]

7. He's reporting the facts, Walt

And so have I in another Newsweek post.

[JPJones]

24. Walt still deserves a link n/t

[Walt Starr]

26. Yep, but now it's time for a 527 to go after LIHOP

Horrible negatives work. Time to drag down Bush on what's being reported as his strongest point.

[kstewart33]

28. I agree, Walt

Hit Bush hard on his record on terrorism and national security. It's amazing that he successfully sold himself in this way when every member of his national security leadership (condi, powell, rummie) were kept off the stage.

[unfrigginreal]

31. I pray that none of the 527's do an ad on LIHOP

That's not going to play in Peoria.

[dennis4868]

51. apparently....

lies work well everywhere.....and the fact of the matter is Bush has done such terrible things while in Gore's house we dont have to make it like the other does.

[Frodo]

41. That would be the end of the race.

And we would lose.

[Pax Argent]

47. It would immediately struck down as a conspiracy theory

and all involved as desperate partisans and the sheeple would absolutely go along with it seeing their great leader as being unfairly persecuted.

Even if LIHOP/MIHOP is the truth, the media would never tell the story without condescension towards these "shrill attacks by the lunatic fringe" and the people would reject the story out of hand because they don't want to know that their government could/would do something like that. They want to believe that the US is morally upright. They're still denying that there were atrocities in Vietnam, for God's sake.

Unless there's footage of Bush laughing maniacally at the thought of the towers coming down, I would absolutely contain these LIHOP/MIHOP suggestions as the speculatory exercises that they are.

[WiseMen]

55. I agree. Have to stay within bounds of credibility with Middle America

[dennis4868]

50. why do people get attacked here....

for reporting the facts.....we are not repubs!

[ItsMyParty]

6. Are you talking Newsweek or Time???

because these are the exact numbers of the Time poll we have been discussing for a day now. I think you must have the wrong magazine.

[kstewart33]

9. It's Newsweek, out just about 3 minutes ago

[mhr]

8. The Media Is Going To Provide Cover For Moderate Repubs To Vote

They will go along with the crowd as proud lemmings unconcerned about the truth.

[kentuck]

10. TIME set the standard....who's going to disagree with them...

If they are wrong, they can always say, but...TIME had the same poll as we did...I still think the more accurate polls will come out next week.

[featherman]

11. Newsweek poll has been strong for Kerry over the

past few months. The jury is in apparently. Bush is leading in the polls. Now let's see how it plays out over the next couple of weeks as the Bush lead begins shrinking and Kerry starts gaining.

[Raya]

49. Thank you for expressing the right approach. Blind denial is so maddening.

[sampsonblk]

52. Amen to both of you

Truth is truth.

Let's also keep the faith and keep working on everyone we can. Kerry is going to need our help.

[mzmolly]

12. Time to pull out our own Horrible Negatives. I'd love to see people

returning from Iraq talking about Bush's failures.

[LibDemAlways]

13. They just make it up as they go along.

If they did poll people, you can bet it was in heavily repuke areas. The only poll that matters is the one Nov. 2, and if - big if - the votes are accurately counted the whores will be crying on air about Kerry's "stunning, unexpected" victory.

[unfrigginreal]

14. Kerry campaign somehow has to hit hard about being misled on Iraq

It won't be easy after the now infamous remark but we had much more military support when folks were questioning the invasion.

[2Design]

15. BS..the only poll that counts is the one on Nov 2

[DaveSZ]

18. Well then

It's time for Iraqi Veterans for truth.

[goclark]

43. That will be too late -sorry

The final poll on Nov. 2nd is way too late!!!
What could we possibly do about it if they fixed the election again-

Oh I know,! We could take it to the Supreme Court! LOL

[JPJones]

17. Link? n/t

[PCIntern]

19. Excuse me, folks...

this is just not the case - you can't make me believe that 85 percent of the undecideds watched that ridiculous mess and then in lockstep said, "OK, that seals the deal" Just no way. These 'undecideds' are pure narcissists and they're gonna hold out for more than that hate-filled Bundist rally. These polls I guarantee were push polls with bad sample selection. Or, they're lying.

Nothing can compel me to believe that there is such a swing. I'm 50+ years old and have been thru campaigns since Johnson/Goldwater and have watched these polls closely back when TV, and the world for that matter, were in black and white.

This is part of the BFEE/Rove plan to make the middle disconsolate and I ain't buying. Neither should anyone else.

[oasis]

42. That's the way I feel. the poll doesn't make sense. It IS a Rove plan.

[wtmusic]

20. Nothing to do with horrible negatives -- it's fearmongering

We've let the GOP successfully steer the "War on Terror" to the forefront.

Kerry must attack priorities.

[Davis_X_Machina]

37. As long as brainstem politics -- fear, revenge -- rule the day...

...Kerry is doomed.

But there are worse things than losing an election.

If this is the only way to win an election:

KERRY: I want the American people to rest secure in the knowledge that if elected I'll be even more cavalier with human lives than my opponent.
I'll be more prompt to kill swarthy people with the wrong God than Mr. Bush.
And to prove my point, let me announce that on Tuesday morning I will be personally truck-bombing an Islamic center in Buffalo, NY....

then do you really want to win?

There are places Democrats cannot go.

[Burma Jones]

21. Let's see polls NOT sponsored by a news organization

before we freak. The news orgs are very interested in making this a horse race. Kerry will narrow the gaps in these polls too, and then the media can report on how Bush has lost his lead. It's all crap.

[WiseMen]

29. No Need to FREAK! This bounce is just the average post-Convention effect.

DNC was the outlier -- likely because their convention did not
take Bush apart.

[Triana]

23. Sounds like NewsWeak is...

...just regurgitating what the Time/CNN polls says. Expect virtually every major news outlet to repeat bu$hit's 'jump'.

This is a psyops operation meant to discourage Democratic voters and supporters.

I'm STILL not buying it and I will NEVER buy it. Seen too many elections to swallow that glass of piss.

[Union Thug]

25. And again, I say...

...Kerry needs to go deep into the smear world, 24/7. No, DO NOT respond to opposition attack ads... Just answer every attack against Kerry with 2 attacks against Bushco. Keep it unrelenting and keep it mean.

Bush is a fucking moron and there's so much that he can be attacked on, from his being a spoiled rotten frat boy who's family ties bought him into the pussy unit of the TANG, to his family's Nazi connections, to his history of having the anti-midas touch, to his wife's homicidal tendencies while behind the wheel of a car, to Cheney and Halliburton, to his love affair with Kenny "fuck the people" Lay... etc...

Get mean and show no mercy.

Just my two cents...

[In Truth We Trust]

30. I kick those exact sentiments willw

[WiseMen]

32. Kerry can't get too dirty. But clearly time for Dems to get into WAR PAINT

[Fionn]

27. Link?

Link?

[lectrobyte]

33. Wasn't there a famous headline that says "Dewey Wins!", too?

It's not over until it's over. Who owns Newsweek anyway?

[opihimoimoi]

34. AND WHERE IS that Headline that asks WHAT DID BUSH DO PRIOR TO 9/11?

TO PREVENT TERRORISM?? He had 8 Months of golf and sitting on his ass, and now he is the Barn Door Prez... go figure.

Kerry oughts slam that in his face.

Get the Hart Rudman thing our t there, the Aug meeting and his no answer/no response to the threats....

WHAT THE HELL DID BUSH DO TO PROTECT AMERICA BEFORE 9/11?

[robcon]

39. WaPo

The Washington Post Company owns Newsweek.

[gulfcoastliberal]

35. Fuck Yeah!

Sorry, we are now in the zone where the best defense if a great offense.
Responding to lies and smears only keeps it visible and may even convince some it's legit. See the polls about veteran support going down after the controversy.

We don't have to "smear" or "go negative". All we have to do is EXPOSE THE TRUTH about this criminal syndicate. Show people what the president and his idealogues really are.

The economy/health care/future memes really worked for the midterms, when the pugs destroyed us. Just cause this is the main event doesn't mean Karl Rove will suddenly change his strategy that he's refined the last decade.

Now is the time. Go nuclear, whatever, but do something that gets them on the defensive and keeps the spotlight on this ugly undebelly of politics that is the repugs. There is wealth of things we can show the American people that will wake them up to the revolting repugs.

Do it now!

[sangh0]

40. You believe every bad poll, even the republican ones

You believed the phony Time poll also.

[West Coast Democrat]

44. When they poll 38% Republicans, but only 31% Dem & 31% Indep.

of course they're going to get these kinds of numbers! But the last time I checked, Republicans were not the largest segment of the electorate.

[LibDemAlways]

53. These whores will never admit that they

call more "random" numbers in Orange County, CA than in San Francisco, CA. I could call "random" households in Berkeley and get a completely opposite result. It's all bullshit.

[dennis4868]

45. I have always been amazed.....

that just because you see an ad on TV or a talking head says something on TV will change someone's mind as if people do not think for themsleves to get to the truth....people are like robots....really sad that Kerry may lose this election because of his war record.....the opposite should be true.

[oasis]

46. Bogus data.

[West Coast Democrat]

48. I've gotta say that polls taken during holiday weekends aren't reliable

Any poll beginning the day after Labor Day will be more accurate. And it has to balance out members of each party, rather than being totally random.

[WiseMen]

54. I agree. But Newsweek did Thursday Night & Friday Night. Some bias

likely, but still a reasonable way to capture Convention effect.

Convention effect will wear off some by next week.

[West Coast Democrat]

57. Is it a Convention effect....?

or the effect of oversampling Republicans in a particular poll?

[MoonRiver]

56. You've been outed

by bigtree

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x745332