Chuck Todd: "Nobody believes Obama is ahead by double-digits"

[book_worm]

That the CBS poll has a history of "over sampling dems"

Really? Chuckie it's not just CBS but ABC has Obama up by ten. Gallup has had him between 9-12 points. The Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up by 12. The GW University Tracking poll has Obama up by double-digits.

I guess Chuck wasn't happy about the results.

[Bicoastal]

1. Chuck, you're a block-head!

[Whalestoe]

2. Chuckie Tease needs a cheese pizza.

[XemaSab]

3. Chuck is right

I suspect Obama is ahead by triple digits.

So there. :P

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. Time and Newsweek also had him up by double digits.

[bigdarryl]

5. he's a shit head three weeks ago he said McShit was on the verge of locking up FL.

that prediction didn't go as he said.

[Overseas]

6. Shall each of us who does believe send him a note?

Is it just [e-mail] ?

Or should we just let him keep fighting very hard to get his bonus for defending McLiar so staunchly?

He's really been squirming for it, I hear.

[stillcool]

10. I don't think it hurts to let him know..

that we know what he is up to. So I did.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. We've got scientifically conducted data.

What have you got, Chuck? The literal interpretation of the Bible?

[City Lights]

8. How can Chuck E. Tawd talk with his lips attached to McCain's ass?

:puke:

[Ikonoklast]

9. Sorry to say this, but Obama is not ahead by double digits.

McSame is BEHIND by that much.





:evilgrin:

[RollWithIt]

11. Chuck Todd has really blown this election....

Before this I actually had some respect for him. All gone now.

[Cosmocat]

27. I liked him a lot, but what we are seeing is assimilation ...

He is a case study in how what once WAS a democrat turns into a corporate whore, and being a corporate whore his two default positions are 1) Marginalize Ds at ALL times 2) Make excuses for Rs whenever the truth starts getting too bad.

He ain't who he was, he is in career mode.

[Mz Pip]

12. Nobody?

CBS apparently does. :shrug: Their are probably a bit more reputable than the Chuckie Todd poll of 10 friends.

I used to like Chuck Todd back when he was just a numbers guy who didn't seem so partisan. I'm sort of surprised by this.

[writes3000]

Chuck becomes more irrevelant with each expanding lead - He wants to remain the go-to guy.

I'm disappointed in him as well.

[Cha]

13. chuckie's email addy.

Chuck Todd [e-mail]

[Captiosus]

17. Thanks. He just got a note from one very pissed off person.

Me!

:mad:

Mr. Todd,
Your credibility as an objective journalist was already strained, but this latest comment on the CBS/NY Times poll is the metaphorical straw which broke the camel's back.

I suggest you go back and review the history of the Gallup Poll (regularly shows Obama ahead between 9 and 12 percentage points), the ABC News/Washington Post Poll (regularly shows Obama ahead between 7 and 11 percentage points) and the GW/Battleground Tracking Poll (regularly shows Obama ahead between 8 and 13 percentage points).

Including CBS/NY Times, that's four national polls which regularly show Obama up by double digits. Apparently quite a few people believe Obama is ahead by double digits.

Next time, before making a blanket statement like "Nobody believes Obama is ahead by double digits", remember the age we're living in because it only takes 30 seconds for an internet user to get to any one of a number of non-partisan poll repository sites to prove you absolutely wrong.

With all due respect David Gregory and yourself have irreparably tarnished the MSNBC reputation when it comes to political coverage. It's wholly depressing that, within a few short months of Tim Russert's death, I have lost all faith in the credibility of MSNBC and would much rather use the internet and print media for political news, only turning on MSNBC for Chris Mathews, Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow.

[Cha]

19. Wow, thanks! Much to chuckie's chagrin

..his viewers are a 1000 times smarter than he or gregory could ever hope for.

Excellent letter to the propagandist.

Edit~ And, Welcome to Du, Captiosus!

[Captiosus]

23. Chuck pissed me off with that while I was in the middle of

a perfectly good bluegrass mood and Del McCoury Band's - Breadline Blues 2008 was up in iTunes.

"Said the long eared mule standin' o'er the box
To the big mouthed elephant 'You drink like an ox
You had eight years, proved nothing but a curse
Gettin' worse and worse'.

Said the long-eared mule,
'I ain't no fool.'"

It was a combustible mix, I really wanted to e-mail him.

Thanks for the welcome, good to be here.

:hi:

[Cha]

34. Cool!

"Said the long eared mule standin' o'er the box
To the big mouthed elephant 'You drink like an ox
You had eight years, proved nothing but a curse
Gettin' worse and worse'.

Said the long-eared mule,
'I ain't no fool.'" :hi:

[SeeHopeWin]

14. Newsweek yesterday by 11%...I just wrote this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7451826&mesg_id=7452215

[jefferson_dem]

15. SFTU Chuckles! There is no problem with this sample. Details inside.

Here's the partisan breakdown.

Dem 371 38.17%
Rep 295 30.35%
Ind 306 31.48%

It's nowhere near unreasonable to assume 8% more Dems will turn out than Reps.

Look at the swing in Indies alone, you dumbshit. "Among independents who are likely voters - a group that has swung back and forth between McCain and Obama over the course of the campaign - the Democratic ticket now leads by 18 points. McCain led among independents last week."

[THUNDER HANDS]

16. this was the sample size of the poll....

Total Respondents 1070

unweighted/weighted
Registered Voters 972 902
Reg. Voters – Democrats 371 338
Reg. Voters – Republicans 295 263
Reg. Voters – Independents 306 301

*Effective Likely Voters 699
*Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. He's exactly right

Todd said he didn't know anybody who believed Obama would win by 10 points if the election were held today.

I'd bet everything I've ever owned that he would not, and borrow everything I could and bet that. You can't be paralyzed by poll results to the point you ignore common sense.

[Yavin4]

20. Ah, Leave Chuckie Alone

He knows that as of Nov. 5th, no one will care about him until 2012. So, he has to make this thing look as close as he can.

[Hepburn]

21. Boo-fuckin'-hoo, Chuckie-Poo....

...deal with it, asshole!

:evilgrin:

[TheDonkey]

22. Shmuck Todd is looking out for his job. This idiot also bashed an NBC poll

awhile ago because it had Obama up by 8 points or something. Said that was probably an "outlier" or something to that effect... but it was a freaking NBC poll of all polls to be bashing!?

[regnaD kciN]

24. In Chuck's defense...

...look at this ranking of poll reliability from 538.com, issued in May:



Notice that CBS/NYT is at the very bottom of standard (non-online) polls (and Nate has confirmed that their poll numbers tend to skew Democratic by that amount of error). Gallup isn't much more reliable. ABC/WaPo is barely higher than the much-maligned Zogby (non-Interactive) poll. R2K was rated high back in May, but there has been come controversy over their dKos poll, which shows a steady 3%-4% Democratic tilt. (GW/Battleground isn't included in those rankings.)

IMHO, I suspect Todd's right, and that Obama isn't ahead by double-digits, since no one has won by that amount since "St. Ronnie" in his "morning in America" 1984 re-election race against the hapless Walter Mondale (the one where Raygun won forty-nine states out of fifty). I doubt you'll see a double-digit margin in a Presidential election for the indefinite future. However, I don't think there can be any doubt that Obama is ahead by 6%-8% -- which is, essentially, the same range as the margins of Clinton's two electoral victories in '92 and '96.

[BklnDem75]

25. Up-Chuck Todd...

I saw him play anchor once. I felt embarrassed for him.

[FloridaGrl]

26. The only problem with Chuck's theory

is that CBS wasn't the only poll that has/had Obama in double digits.

[Glimmer of Hope]

28. He will have a rude awakening call on 11.04.2008.

[Motown_Johnny]

29. I think it is more like 8, but I won't speak to what anyone else believes

[Meshuga]

30. He is in denial

He is under a lot of stress and we see that now on tv.

[Overseas]

31. Hey Chuckie, Zogby heard your cry !!

They'll be putting out a closer poll that you can wave around on TV tomorrow, according to Drudge.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7452903

[Shakespeare]

32. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com agrees.

Guys, Todd isn't saying that Obama doesn't have a sizeable lead. Here's Silver's take:

CBS/NYT Poll Preempt
If Andrew Sullivan is right and the CBS-NYT poll to be released this evening shows a 14-point lead for Obama, we shouldn't actually regard this as all that shocking a result.

Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.

You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that's how you get to 14 points.

Not that this is good news for McCain exactly -- the balance of polling over the past 48 hours indicates that Obama's true lead is probably more like 8 points (maybe even inching upward toward 9) than 6 or 7. But it's not quite as bad as it will look on the surface.

UPDATE: Yes, the topline number is indeed Obama 53, McCain 39, although the version that we prefer -- with third party candidates included -- gives Obama "only" a 12-point lead.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html

[Phx_Dem]

33. Nate Silver doesn't think it's double digits either.

Not that this is good news for McCain exactly -- the balance of polling over the past 48 hours indicates that Obama's true lead is probably more like 8 points /b](maybe even inching upward toward 9) than 6 or 7. But it's not quite as bad as it will look on the surface.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html

[Medusa]

35. He's right about one thing:

we have to ignore the national polls. They aren't the ones that count. The ones that do are the swing states and those are still too damn close for my liking even if they are breaking our way.