Would Obama be surging if the economy hadn't crashed this month?

[Bonn1997]

I keep wondering this. I don't mean it as a criticism. I'm really happy he's surging in the polls but it took a loss of about 1000 points in the DOW for him to start consistently leading outside the margin of error. If it stays like this, we may have a steal-proof election rather than one within the margin of error that could easily be stolen. Ironically, it may have taken a huge economic crash to save our democracy.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. He's been winning this whole campaign.

I see no reason why not.

[ingac70]

2. We kicked Repuke ass in '06...

and we were poised to do it again. The stock market and Dubya were lagging indicators. Everyone else crashed long ago.

[cynatnite]

Perhaps with not such a wide margin, but he'd still be winning, IMO n/t

[Cattledog]

3. His steady hand in the

first debate sealed it for him in the midst of a crisis.

[Bonn1997]

6. That is a good point. Most say Kerry won the debates too.

And I believe he did win the election but not by enough to prevent fraud.

[CountAllVotes]

4. ironically, Faux news is reporting that ...

if Obama becomes the next president, we'll end up in a depression.

I'd say McCain = depression and then some!

It is the economy stupid once again.

Farewell pukes! :puke:

[Bonn1997]

9. Maybe they mean psychological depression for their employees?

[Tribetime]

5. Yes I think Palin has a lot to do with it, as much as anything else

[rgbecker]

24. I agree. Tina Fey put it to America so they could see how bad it would be.

[LisaM]

7. I think Democrats as a whole are surging, because of the economy

there are a lot of Senate races that are suddenly in play, too. I think the Republican party failings are highlighting that the party of choice is the Democratic party. It's good that we have a strong candidate, but the weak Republican brand is giving all the candidates an advantage. Heck, here in Washington State, the Republican candidate for governor won't even call himself a Republican.

[Perky]

8. Yes because the media would be focused on Palin and troopergate.

[union_maid]

10. Probably not as much, but....

I still think he'd be ahead and I don't think the reason for the surge is mainly because the Dems are better on the economy. If people realized that 2000 wouldn't have been close enough to steal. I think it's because McCain reaction to it gave people a good look at how well he's prepared to handle a crisis. McCain's acting like a lunatic, we're getting to know Sarah and Obama just keeps looking smarter and more presidential all the time.

[CrispyQ]

11. I don't think so.

McCain & the media would focus on McCain's foreign policy experience & the race would be much closer. Bushco is probably crapping themselves that they weren't able to stave this off for another couple of months.

Wall St. thinks Obama will be better for the economy than McCain:

Cramer: Obama is a recession. McCain is a depression.

http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/51007/

[NotThisTime]

12. Yes, he started rising right after the 1st debate, but after debate he keeps going higher, add in

Palin & McCain's complete and utter eratic and contemptuous behavior, it is not lost on people. He'd definitely be winning, by how much I'm not sure, but winning nonetheless

[book_worm]

15. he began rising before the first debate as McCain convention bounce soon faded and people

got a load of Palin in the Gibson interview.

[book_worm]

13. He was already moving up in the polls before the housing crash/stock market fiasco

[truthisfreedom]

14. If McCain had had a better response to the crisis, he'd be ahead. It isn't the economy failing, it

is the response chosen by the candidate to ANY crisis.

[DarthDem]

16. Yes, I Think So

I think that many millions of voters were looking for a "trigger," and wanted to be sold on being led by (let's be honest) a relatively young black man. The economic crisis gave them the excuse they needed to make the choice, and it's permanent.

However, I think this would have happened anyway because of the unbelievable incompetence of the McClown campaign, the old fool's total inadequacy as a candidate, and the breathtaking lack of qualifications on the part of his soon-to-be-a-historical-footnote running mate.

[Liberal_in_LA]

17. The economy was going down anyway. Bad luck for the GOP they couldn't delay until after election

[rucky]

18. I'd like to think so.

What it did is re-prioritize the issues for people, and they're going with the one who's strongest on the economy.

[Barack_America]

19. Palin still would have given the Couric interview....

The debates still would have happened.

The 401K statements still would have arrived (and they have been decreasing all year).

So, yes. But 14 points ahead? Probably not.

[Bad Thoughts]

20. McCain "suspending his campaign" maybe had more direct impact

But let's face it, as voters learned about Palin's character, McCain's numbers slid. The economy may have given a couple points to Obama in the short term, but McCain began acting oddly, from suspending his campaign, behaving badly at the debates, and leading near-racist mobs. At lot goes into Obama's lead.

[Overseas]

26. Yes. The whole McLurch week of erratic behavior in a financial emergency

made many more people question his temperament. Stories they had heard about his temper and rash judgment probably came to mind. And were added to his rashness in having chosen the unqualified running mate he felt he needed to pander to the Religious Right.

But it was the McLurch versus No Drama Obama, who kept up his campaign while still ccalling in to Secretary Paulson and his congressional colleagues every day to help solve the crisis.

People saw how each would react to emergencies-- McLurch vs. Mr. Calm in a Storm.

[Me.]

21. Does It Matter?

He is and that's all that counts

[Cha]

22. It's the culmination of 8 nightmare bush years..

The Perfect Storm for Obama Biden. Doesn't really need to be over analylized.

[goletian]

23. yes, of course. palin is a moron. shes lucky shes not getting more attention right now.

[DevonRex]

25. Yes. Palin was the nail in the coffin for McKKK. nt

[TheKentuckian]

27. I think so. We may not have had such legs

but I believe strongly that the brief lead McHoover had was about to reverse and was created by Palin being a shiny new distraction.

We were already heading to a win, in all probability but it would have been closer.

[grannylib]

28. Hell yes. People are sick and tired of the lies and the shit and the

fearmongering and the smear tactics of the Reich Wing Nut Jobs...

[Bonn1997]

30. They should have been sick of it way before now though.

Maybe independents/undecideds are just really slow

[progressiveforever]

29. I'd say "Yes"--things will tighten a bit around Oct. 23-24 (always does) then Obama will fly high

[TheCowsCameHome]

31. It gave him a chance to be seen as cool and calm, not like McCain

running around in circles and acting like a fool. (Actually, McCain wasn't acting...........)

[JSK]

32. Don't know; don't care!

He's surging. That's all I care about.

The economy has crashed due in large part to 30 years of Reaganomics, so it's only fitting that Obama gets a surge. But I still can't believe the perfect timing.