The Daily Widget, Thur 10/16 – O-383, M-155 – Obama At 50% w/o Undecideds; 250 Strong EVs

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Thu Oct-16-08 07:55 AM
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The Daily Widget, Thur 10/16 – O-383, M-155 – Obama At 50% w/o Undecideds; 250 Strong EVs

1. ANALYSIS

Apologies for the lateness of the Daily Widget today … We had no internet connection until 7:30 a.m. Central Time US.

Eighteen state polls were released yesterday, and Obama is leading in 14 of them. We now have confirmation that West Virginia is currently in play, and two separate polls also confirm that New Mexico is no longer in play. On the edges of the pie chart, Kansas weakens for John McCain (+13) and Massachusetts goes long for Barack Obama (+26).

American Research Group conducted a poll in West Virginia late last week that raised eyebrows, showing Obama leading by 8 points there. Insider Advantage released their own West Virginia poll yesterday showing McCain leading by only 2 points. With old polls falling off, these two latest polls are averaged and West Virginia switches to blue today.

Two separate new polls for New Mexico show Obama leads of +13 (Rasmussen) and +7 (Survey USA). These are the first new polls in over a week for New Mexico and they average to Obama +10, moving New Mexico to the Strong Obama column today.

Barack Obama now has 250 electoral votes in his Strong column, just 20 electoral votes shy of a win, with only 19 days remaining until the election. These are the states in which he is leading by double digits. Further, Obama is leading in all the 2004 Kerry states by margins of greater than 5 points, or beyond the margin of error.

The popular vote count from the state polls continues to skyrocket for Obama, as he reaches 50% of the total vote today before even considering how the remaining undecided voters will split. He is leading McCain by more than 7.5 million votes, or 5.5%.

The national polls are maintaining impressive averages for Obama as well. The national daily trackers are averaging to a 7.5 point lead for Obama, while the overall national polling gives Obama a lead of 7.7 points over McCain.

Note: Trend lines in graphs are only accurate up to five days in the future, so we need to view the trend lines with that in mind.

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Colorado

Obama 51, McCain 47 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 762 LV)
Florida

Obama 48, McCain 44 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 3.8, 612 LV)
Florida

Obama 47, McCain 42 (Datamar Inc, 10/13 +/- 2.7, 1328 RV)
Florida

Obama 51, McCain 46 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 765 LV)
Georgia

Obama 45, McCain 53 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 718 LV)
Illinois

Obama 56, McCain 39 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas

Obama 41, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts

Obama 62, McCain 34 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Massachusetts

Obama 59, McCain 35 (Survey USA, 10/14 +/- 3.9, 624 LV)
Missouri

Obama 48, McCain 49 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 763 LV)
Nevada

Obama 49, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 506 LV)
New Mexico

Obama 52, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.2, 568 LV)
New Mexico

Obama 55, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 48, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 5.0, 474 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 38 (Morning Call, 10/14 +/- 4.0, 612 LV)
Virginia

Obama 53, McCain 43 (CNN/Time, 10/14 +/- 3.5, 698 LV)
Washington

Obama 56, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 10/13 +/- 4.3, 544 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 47, McCain 49 (Insider Advantage, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 522 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

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