Gallup: RV - O (49) M (43) LV O (51) M (45)

[No Passaran]

Almost all of the interviews in this three-day rolling average were conducted before Wednesday night's third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University, which began at 9 p.m. ET. It will be several days before the full impact of this debate can be measured in the three-day rolling average, although its initial impact might be apparent as early as Friday's report.

Meanwhile, the current rolling average shows that McCain has done slightly better in the days leading into the debate. McCain's 43% share of the vote matches his best in the last two weeks. Today's average also represents the first time since the Sept. 30 - Oct. 2 average that Obama has received less than 50% support from registered voters, although Obama continues to maintain a significant lead among this group. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

[No Passaran]

1. Pre Debate

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Looks like the polls are tightening a bit.

Hopefully this isn't a trend, but it seems across the board they're tightening.

[No Passaran]

6. Not across the board

Gallup is going up and down but still outside of that margin of error. Check out other polls on RCP

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Yeah, that's why I said it.

Yesterday, Obama was up an average of 7.8 or something like that, now it's 6.9 and that doesn't count the Gallup poll.

Obama has lost ground in Rasmussen, Gallup and Battleground, really, the only three tracking polls I care about.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Oh and he's up 2 among likely voters (original model).

Yeah, it looks like this race is going to get scary tight again.

[my3boyz]

4. Across the board? nt

[Drunken Irishman]

7. Pretty much.

Rasmussen shows Obama up 4 now after being up five. Battleground went from Obama up 10 to up 4.

Seems every poll is tightening.

[my3boyz]

10. What battleground? nt

[MadBadger]

15. hes up 6 in the battleground poll

[Drunken Irishman]

18. 4-6, meh, there is clear movement for McCain.

It's probably marginal movement, but this race isn't ballooning in Obama's favor like it was last week.

[MadBadger]

19. Hotline and R2K have no movement, and even Zogby had Obama gain a point.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Hotline I might buy, R2K is way in the Obama tank.

They've consistently had his numbers 4-5 points higher than they average.

Zogby's numbers will show McCain closing the gap again tonight, that's what his numbers do.

[MadBadger]

25. I disagree with your assesment of R2K...Their numbers match the non-tracking polls pretty well

They are right in line with all the other polls released like the Newsweek, Pew, Bloomberg, Ipsos, NY times poll, etc.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. That's fine, I've never taken R2K's polls at vace value.

And just a few days ago, Gallup was matching the numbers of non-tracking polls pretty well, too.

It's clear there is movement, at least a little, toward McCain since Monday. R2K's polls aren't showing that and their margin, 12 points, is pretty high.

[MadBadger]

28. And an even more relevant Tracking poll, the Muhlenberg poll (PA), has Obama now up 16.

He's been up 11-13 for most of the time.

[FrenchieCat]

17. Thank God I've been consistent in NOT following polls......

It could discourage me otherwise.

[dennis4868]

53. good for you...

saves you alot of headaches....

[GrizzlyMan]

21. I felt all along Obama would be up no more than 3 or 4 on election day

The large margins, even in the registered voter model, are unsustainable. I don't know anyone who follows politics who thought Obama would win by the 11 pts. Gallup had over the weekend in their RV model.

But even if McSame closes to within 3 by election day, Obama still wins by a very large margin, assuming the numbers are accurate.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. See, I was thinking more 5-6 points.

But it's not the national polls that I really care about. If the national polls trend McCain, you better believe state polls will follow.

If they trend just enough to McCain, that takes away all the gains Obama had in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri.

Meaning, Obama might not win any of those states and if he does, it's by less than 1%.

I don't want that on election day. I mean, Bush held an average lead of 2 on election day four years ago and only won with barely enough EC votes.

[Jennicut]

Bush won the popular vote by 2%, 50 to 48

I have always thought Obama would win by 3 to 4 percent. Bill Clinton won by 6 percent in 1992 and he had a lot of the south. If the polls reflect 4 to 7 % like they have been Obama will probably win by 3 to 4 points I think.

[GrizzlyMan]

35. Well if McSame can run the table on all the swing states, he deserves to win

Unfortunately for him, that's not likely to happen. Hell, he could have a miraculous turnaround in 6 of them, and still lose. That's the daunting position he is in.

As for election night, I'm not making any plans for the next day. We could be up a long long time. But then again, it could also be over earlier than we think. For instance if Obama takes VA, I'm popping the champagne because we'll know then it's over.

[Drunken Irishman]

36. Well that's the problem.

The polls are very tight in many swing states. Any shift back to McCain could dramatically switch the electoral college again from a clear Obama victory, to waiting it out and hoping Colorado doesn't fall to McCain.

That makes for a very long Nov. 4th.

[Jennicut]

44. The polls are not tight in VA or CO or Wisconsin or Mich or alot of others

They are close Missouri (not needed) and Ohio (not needed). Perhaps somewhat close in FL but not tied. Geez. Chill out already.

[dennis4868]

48. Yep...

if the trend continues then by next week CNN will be showing McCain getting very close in Florida, leading nicely in Ohio and closing in VA....

[alcibiades_mystery]

5. ...

[tpi10d]

12. maybe some pre-debate anticipation

McCain "coming out swinging" etc. Tonight will be the first post-debate polling and it will take 3 days to get fully into the rolling averages. The final debate cemented earlier impressions IMO-McCain did himself no favors. I wouldn't be surprised to see the lead opening up again starting tomorrow.

[mvd]

8. That "traditional" likely voting model appears to be crap

Just a tool to make the race look closer.

[No Passaran]

11. Doesn't account for new registrations

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. That's silly

It's the model they have used in the last several elections.

Their addition of an expanded turn-out model is a very good thing. More information is better.

[mvd]

26. Not silly

The "expanded" is the one most relevant to now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. This Is A Difficult Nation To Figure Out

We are all subject to our own enthusiasm and biases and it's hard for us to believe so many people can think so differently...


That being said, with all the Democratic registration gains the expanded model might be correct...

[mvd]

34. That's what I think - the newly registered voters plus..

renewed enthusiasm among younger voters and the passion Obama's supporters have.

You are right, though, never give up. This country was stupid enough so that Bush could steal office.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Welll My Kennedy-Nixon Prediction Is Looking Better

O 49.7% - M 49.6%

I pray it as not as close and I pray we win...


Here's Gallup's record since 1936:


http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/Gallup-Presidential-Election-TrialHeat-Trends-19362004.aspx#3

[book_worm]

58. I doubt it will be anything near that close not with the record voter registration of the dems

this year and the enthusiasm factor. Things will tighten a bit but Obama will win by at least five points, I predict.

[FloridaGrl]

14. Great

Now people won't be complacent then say he can win without me and stay home. I have no doubt Obama will be victorious in a huge way if people actually go out and vote.

[Schulzz]

24. It's good that average lead in polls went down a point BEFORE the debate.

I expect them to be up again in three days, so nobody can spin this debate as comeback for McCain.

[elkston]

16. So he's over 50% with likely voters, but registered voters have more undecided?

I expected the opposite outcome, acutally.

[Barack_America]

20. Okay. Those numbers look fine.

Let us not forget the media's great last push to resurrect the McCain campaign. Remember all of that ridiculous hype regarding his (not so) NEW and (not so) IMPROVED stump speech?

[Drunken Irishman]

22. Right and expect more of it.

They're going to say he's the comeback kid now that the polls are moving in his direction again.

[mvd]

30. Yeah, it may tighten but 2 points seems like the outlier

The debate will help and it might get closer again because of the media, but we will prevail by at least 3 points.

[PermanentRevolution]

32. Hmm. I had hoped he'd stay over 50%

I knew a tightening of the race was inevitable, but I was hoping Obama would manage to stay above the 50% mark. Still, I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings before getting too disheartened.

[Teaser]

37. "too disheartened"

Christ, we're running away with this and you're a little disheartened.

[Sodan]

38. I only look at state polls AND prediction markets like Intrade

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933

[PermanentRevolution]

47. Ooo... nice snarky condescension!

:applause:

Congratulations on your mastery of Keyboard Warcraft 101!

[Teaser]

54. Thanks for the nice words...

but I know I'm good at what I do, and I don't need them.

[PermanentRevolution]

57. Still, it's always nice to have strangers pay you a compliment.

:toast:

I eagerly await your completion of "Worthwhile Contributions 101."

[leftynyc]

39. Good - this will keep people from

complacency (sp?). Voters can be very fickle and if they think their vote is not important, people will stay home. I'm glad Sen Obama is up but anyone who thought he'd actually win by anything more than 3-4% (and that would constitute a landslide) was kidding themselves.

[dennis4868]

40. Well as many of you know I am not allowed to say...

that polls are tightening on this board...I get blasted here for saying things like that but I see others are saying it....

Having said that, I am trying to figure out why the polls are closing. WTF? What has McCain done in the past 5-7 days to make this happen? Only thing he has done is attack Obama's character....maybe that is actually working? And what is worse is that McCain is getting a free ride with all of his connections to very shady people and organizations :-(

[mvd]

41. No, I don't think the attacks are working

The tightening is not alarming yet and seems like a natural thing as we get closer. The debate should put Obama up more before it tightens again. But McCain will never have a real chance, as long as we keep playing things smart.

[Drunken Irishman]

42. You got attacked because you said it at the dumbest time.

And there was barely any movement in the polls.

Now there seems to be some shift, at least in the 3 bigger daily tracking polls.

You can say it now, but when you were saying it, Obama held a sizable lead on average STILL.

[dennis4868]

46. You are probably right about that....

and there does seem to be a shift of some sorts...just last Friday Obama had an 11 point lead...it's almost been sliced in half since that time....My god I could not live 4 years under a McCain administration....I need some tylenol.

[Drunken Irishman]

51. I won't worry until it's tied.

And I don't think it'll ever be tied.

We'll see how these numbers look tomorrow and next week.

[Jennicut]

43. Oh God, not you again Dennis. Didn't we have the same conversation after the RNC?

Polls tighten before elections because people start to really make up their minds. Its a natural phenomenon and it happened in 2000 and 2004. I am just happy we are ahead. What if we were behind the whole time? Geez, some people need chill pills this morning.

[dennis4868]

45. I can always count on Jennicut

to come through with a post that follows mine regarding polls....and you know what, I think Jennicut may be right...either the polls are getting closer because McCain's attacks are working some or things like this happen as we get closer to election day....I hope and think it's probably the latter....I would be damn mad if it was due to McCain's lies and personal attacks on Obama!

[Jennicut]

49. I just hate to see you so gloomy. Cheer up, for once we are actually winning.

We were playing catch up in 2004 at the end of October. Let McLame try to catch up to us now. They we can slap him around when he tells his lame lies. I just don't see McInsane winning this race, the country is swinging back to the Dems because of 8 years Of Bush, the economy is a mess, we are still in Iraq and we have a huge deficit. I think because we have had two elections pretty much stolen from us some of us don't want to see our hopes dashed again. Don't pay attention to the MSM or some stupid polls. Obama's guy David Plouffe said that daily tracking polls were pretty much dumb. Look at the longterm effects on the race: the economy and the amount of newly registered voters.

[dennis4868]

52. Makes sense...

but my worry is that if McCain continues to get closer the media will play up the comeback kid story and McCain will gain even more momentum...Americans love the comeback kid stories....

[tpi10d]

50. Side by side contrast in the debates

have tended to open up the polls in Obama's favor. I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen again over the next few days.

Then it's back to the media filter of the campaigns and the polls tend to tighten.

It is my expectation we'll hold the polling lead through election day and win with a 4-5 point margin. I'd love to be wrong and see a Reagan type blowout circa 1980. If the polls increase to 10 points due to the last debate and hold for two weeks that becomes more likely.

[uponit7771]

55. CO, VA and NM are holding steady and he's in the black in NV also...there's NO WAY I'M going to..

...accept a loss now.

[dennis4868]

56. State polls....

follow the national polls...if national polls get closer so do the state polls...in due time....

[book_worm]

59. I can't believe how upset some get with a small tightening of the race. It's inevitable

but Obama has been leading the polls since early September and for most of this year. It's a change election. People are not going to elect McCain.