Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

On Oct 16th 2004, where were Bush and Kerry campaigning? What were the polls like?

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 09:57 PM
Original message
On Oct 16th 2004, where were Bush and Kerry campaigning? What were the polls like?
Edited on Thu Oct-16-08 09:57 PM by usregimechange
Where were the 2004 candidates on Oct 16th 2004?

Kerry campaigned in Milwaukee Wisconsin and Xenia Ohio.
Bush campaigned in Broward and Palm Beach counties in Florida. Bush was in Iowa the day before.

What were the polls during this time in the 2004 election cycle?

President Bush is pulling a bit ahead of Kerry. Every step -- and misstep -- could affect their frenetic race to the finish. After three debates that drew tens of millions of viewers, the president leads Kerry 52 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll taken Thursday through Saturday. That's a significant shift from Kerry's 1-percentage-point lead a week earlier. Among the larger group of registered voters, Bush leads 49 percent to 46 percent.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/18/mon.hot/index.html?iref=newssearch

Bush has pulled ahead of Kerry in Colorado on the strength of increased popularity among women, according to a Rocky Mountain News/News 4 poll. Bush leads by 5 points, just outside the poll's margin of error and up from a 1-point edge last month. His advantage includes a plurality of women, a change from previous polls that showed female voters preferred Kerry.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/18/mon.hot/index.html?iref=newssearch

If the election were held today, Bush would win 277 electoral votes to Kerry's 261, according to a new CNN survey based on state polling, interviews with campaign aides and independent analysts.

After strong performances in three televised debates, Sen. John Kerry has overtaken President Bush in the jackpot swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire, according to a new CNN survey that nonetheless shows Bush clinging to a small lead in the Electoral College.

Bush, who held a commanding edge coming out of his convention last month, is now clinging to statistically insignificant leads in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and Florida, which hold a total of 53 electoral votes.

One key state that is trending Bush's way, however, is Missouri, which Kerry aides acknowledge is no longer a top target. "Well, let me put it this way," one senior Democratic strategist said this week. "We've taken it out of our list" of battleground states.


Referrences not included above
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/16/candidates.speech/index.html?iref=newssearch
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/15/kerry.interview/index.html?iref=newssearch



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
1. Compare these two maps
Edited on Thu Oct-16-08 10:00 PM by Quixote1818
Kerry VS Bush exactly 4 years ago


Obama VS McCain

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
gblady Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. WOW!
what a difference...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Quixote1818 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:04 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. And remember, Kerry only lost by 200,000 votes in Ohio
That is if he really lost?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Well Kerry wasn't considering advertising in ND and MT thats for damn sure
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
navarth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 09:59 PM
Response to Original message
2. perhaps we should also ask how the M$M was behaving?
ClusterFox News controlling the information, the other networks too chicken shit or complicit to cover Kerry's responses to the Swift Boat Liars, Chris Matthews cheerleading for Bu$h...shall I go on?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
4. Toss up states a week later in the 04 cycle
But the nation, while divided, is no more split than the states themselves. Bush and Kerry are polling too close to call in 11 states -- Florida, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Wisconsin and Maine -- which together hold 125 electoral votes.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/22/electoral.map/index.html?iref=newssearch
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
7. Don't forget that hundreds of thousands were disenfranchised in OH. Kerry Won!
Preserving Democracy:
What Went Wrong in Ohio
Status Report of the House Judiciary Committee Democratic Staff

Wednesday 05 January 2005

Executive Summary



First, in the run up to election day, the following actions by Mr. Blackwell, the Republican Party and election officials disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of Ohio citizens, predominantly minority and Democratic voters:

The misallocation of voting machines led to unprecedented long lines that disenfranchised scores, if not hundreds of thousands, of predominantly minority and Democratic voters. This was illustrated by the fact that the Washington Post reported that in Franklin County, "27 of the 30 wards with the most machines per registered voter showed majorities for Bush. At the other end of the spectrum, six of the seven wards with the fewest machines delivered large margins for Kerry." (See Powell and Slevin, supra). Among other things, the conscious failure to provide sufficient voting machinery violates the Ohio Revised Code which requires the Boards of Elections to "provide adequate facilities at each polling place for conducting the election."

Mr. Blackwell's decision to restrict provisional ballots resulted in the disenfranchisement of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of voters, again predominantly minority and Democratic voters. Mr. Blackwell's decision departed from past Ohio law on provisional ballots, and there is no evidence that a broader construction would have led to any significant disruption at the polling places, and did not do so in other states.

Mr. Blackwell's widely reviled decision to reject voter registration applications based on paper weight may have resulted in thousands of new voters not being registered in time for the 2004 election.

The Ohio Republican Party's decision to engage in preelection "caging" tactics, selectively targeting 35,000 predominantly minority voters for intimidation had a negative impact on voter turnout. The Third Circuit found these activities to be illegal and in direct violation of consent decrees barring the Republican Party from targeting minority voters for poll challenges.

The Ohio Republican Party's decision to utilize thousands of partisan challengers concentrated in minority and Democratic areas likely disenfranchised tens of thousands of legal voters, who were not only intimidated, but became discouraged by the long lines. Shockingly, these disruptions were publicly predicted and acknowledged by Republican officials: Mark Weaver, a lawyer for the Ohio Republican Party, admitted the challenges "can't help but create chaos, longer lines and frustration."

Mr. Blackwell's decision to prevent voters who requested absentee ballots but did not receive them on a timely basis from being able to receive provisional ballots 6 likely disenfranchised thousands, if not tens of thousands, of voters, particularly seniors. A federal court found Mr. Blackwell's order to be illegal and in violation of HAVA.



Second, on election day, there were numerous unexplained anomalies and irregularities involving hundreds of thousands of votes that have yet to be accounted for:

There were widespread instances of intimidation and misinformation in violation of the Voting Rights Act, the Civil Rights Act of 1968, Equal Protection, Due Process and the Ohio right to vote. Mr. Blackwell's apparent failure to institute a single investigation into these many serious allegations represents a violation of his statutory duty under Ohio law to investigate election irregularities.

We learned of improper purging and other registration errors by election officials that likely disenfranchised tens of thousands of voters statewide. The Greater Cleveland Voter Registration Coalition projects that in Cuyahoga County alone over 10,000 Ohio citizens lost their right to vote as a result of official registration errors.

There were 93,000 spoiled ballots where no vote was cast for president, the vast majority of which have yet to be inspected. The problem was particularly acute in two precincts in Montgomery County which had an undervote rate of over 25% each - accounting for nearly 6,000 voters who stood in line to vote, but purportedly declined to vote for president.

There were numerous, significant unexplained irregularities in other counties throughout the state: (i) in Mahoning county at least 25 electronic machines transferred an unknown number of Kerry votes to the Bush column; (ii) Warren County locked out public observers from vote counting citing an FBI warning about a potential terrorist threat, yet the FBI states that it issued no such warning; (iii) the voting records of Perry county show significantly more votes than voters in some precincts, significantly less ballots than voters in other precincts, and voters casting more than one ballot; (iv) in Butler county a down ballot and underfunded Democratic State Supreme Court candidate implausibly received more votes than the best funded Democratic Presidential candidate in history; (v) in Cuyahoga county, poll worker error may have led to little known thirdparty candidates receiving twenty times more votes than such candidates had ever received in otherwise reliably Democratic leaning areas; (vi) in Miami county, voter turnout was an improbable and highly suspect 98.55 percent, and after 100 percent of the precincts were reported, an additional 19,000 extra votes were recorded for President Bush.


Much more at the link:

http://www.truthout.org/docs_05/010605Y.shtml
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bagimin Donating Member (945 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. but but but drudge says it's tied
within the margin of error...oh matty,you tease.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
NYC_SKP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
9. Here's GDP on October 16, 2004
Page one: http://web.archive.org/web/20041127090614/www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=132

Some familiar names there...

And except for the names "Kerry" and "Bush", many of the threads' subject lines could have been from today.

I even think I saw, "DU this PBS poll" on page six!

Here is one thread, "ABC WashPost Poll: We're closing folks.": http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x906567

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mucifer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:27 PM
Response to Original message
10. Think about our ground game now compared to then.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
wisteria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kerry won in 2004. CNN's polling was notoriously anti- Kerry.
Internals were a lot closer and looked much much closer until the Bin Laden tape appeared.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Mon May 06th 2024, 01:43 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC