...The manipulation of polling weights is nothing new. Recall that the
2004 and
2006 Final National Exit Polls weightings were adjusted to match the
recorded vote miscount. But
all category cross-tabs had to be changed, not just Party ID. Of course, the
Final Exit Poll (state and national)
is always matched to the Recorded vote, even though it may be fraudulent — as it was in
2000,
2002,
2004 and
2006.
In 2004, the
12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a
38–
35 Democrat/Republican
'Party ID' mix.
Kerry
won the
12:22am Preliminary NEP by
51–
48%. (
13,047 random sample, 1% MoE )
The weighting mix was changed to
37–
37 in the
Final NEP to
'force' a match to the
Recorded vote miscount;
Likewise, the Gore/Bush
'Voted 2000' weights were changed from
39–
41 to
37–
43 in the Final ('13047' & '13660'
here).
Bush won the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 51–48%.
Bush was the "
official" winner by
50.7–
48.3% with
286 EV.
...
from and continued re 2006 midterms in
"Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV" in
10/7 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA POLLING 364 EV (356 EXPECTED)- MAXIMUM PLAUSIBLE 375 EV w INDIANA?Also, see the graph here:
It's very clear...These are the PRE-ELECTION Polls...The above is what occurred on Election night in
POST-election exit-polling, i.e. direct from the proverbial horses' mouths, the voters on Nov 2, 2004, without memory issue with their current vote --
random sample, 1% Margin of Error, as per link above.
What about Electoral Votes and a
PRE-election polling
Vote Projection, compared to
POST-election
Exit Poll, the
recorded Vote Count and the
Final "exit poll"?
The
2004 Election Model State Model used latest state-by-state
PRE-election polls and included an
allocation of undecided voters (UVA) -- like professional forecasting organizations
Gallup, Harris, Zogby (unlike, though, many casual viewers of polls who, when confronted with polls indicating, for example, 'Bush-46% Kerry-44% Undecided-10%', ignored the implications of "undecided" columns, failed to apply UVA and recklessly promoted "See! Bush was leading!!"). The
State Model projected
337 electoral votes for Kerry. That
pre-election EV-projection figure matched exactly the
actual EV total derived
POST-election from exit-poll vote share calculations using "
IM WPE" data reported by exit-pollster Edison-Mitofsky in January 2005 (
p 32, column 'IM WPE'), applied to corresponding
recorded Vote Count margins, and re-presented
HERE (context within
2004 Election Model Review), with inclusion of
exit poll results for Kerry electoral votes totaling...
337.
The Election Model's Pre-election Vote Projection for Kerry of 337 EV matched
exactly the Post-election WPE Model Exit Poll indication Kerry won 337 electoral votes.
The
recorded vote "officially" awarded Kerry
252 electoral votes and Bush
286 EV.
The
Final National Exit Poll was matched to the
recorded vote, regardless the resulting impossibilities.
A comparison, state-by-state, of the 2004 Election Model's pre-election
Vote Projected, the pollster's post-election
Vote Polled and the recorded
Vote Counted (to which the pollster's
Final "poll" was '
forced' to match by changes in demographics which were
impossible) appears under the
State Model section of any 2008 Election Model full update. (10/14 is provided below.) A comparison, too, of current Obama Vote Projected and Kerry's final "Vote Projected" is included in the 2008 State Model.
The 2004 Election Model
National Model provides in the very last column a 5-latest-national poll moving average of the margins between Kerry and Bush leading up to election day. Is it just coincidence that the well-established margin-trend reflects the Kerry-Bush margins of the three
post-election
preliminary exit polls on election day? (See
NEP Timeline.)
Moreover, have a look at a couple of chapters from the following:
2004 Election Fraud Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
3: Pre-Election Polling I
4. Pre-Election Polling II
?click">Kerry/Bush National Trend derived from Weighted State Polls
?click">Kerry Electoral Vote and Win Probability Projection Trend
?click">Kerry Electoral and National Vote Projection Trend
?click"> Independent National Polls: Kerry Vs. Bush Monthly Trend
State Model(2-party vote shares)
L A T E S T S T A T E P O L L
KEY STATES
(within MoE)
2004 EM KERRY VOTE–PROJECTION vs
EXIT POLL & RECORDED VOTE–COUNT
2008 vs 2004
PROJECTED VOTE
Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
60% UVA
Projection
MC Exp EV
Win Prob
Resource Allocation
Vote
Projected
WPE (IM)
Exit Poll
Vote
Counted
Kerry Projection
deviation
StatesEV
Flip To(*)
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DC
DE
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
Last
Poll
Date
10/9
9/21
9/30
9/22
10/9
10/12
9/28
9/13
10/9
10/11
10/9
9/20
9/17
9/20
10/6
10/9
9/22
9/28
9/28
9/25
9/23
9/25
10/12
10/12
9/16
10/12
9/26
9/17
10/9
10/6
10/12
9/22
10/11
10/11
10/9
10/11
9/17
10/11
10/11
9/16
9/23
9/21
9/29
9/16
9/13
9/22
10/11
10/2
10/8
10/12
9/28
VoteShare
Popular
Electoral
9
3
10
6
55
9
7
3
3
27
15
4
4
21
11
7
6
8
9
4
10
12
17
10
6
11
3
5
5
4
15
5
31
15
3
20
7
7
21
4
8
3
11
34
5
3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
50.09 %
372
37
38
38
37
56
52
54
90
56
50
45
68
33
56
45
54
40
42
40
50
57
56
54
51
44
51
45
37
49
52
54
52
64
48
45
49
34
56
53
55
41
39
39
38
28
55
51
53
50
54
37
McCain
43.99 %
166
61
55
52
47
40
42
38
9
38
44
50
27
62
38
49
41
56
53
55
43
38
39
38
40
52
45
51
56
45
42
42
44
31
47
43
46
64
41
40
35
54
55
57
51
64
36
44
43
42
37
58
Spread
6.09 %
206
(24)
(17)
(14)
(10)
16
10
16
81
18
6
(5)
41
(29)
18
(4)
13
(16)
(11)
(15)
7
19
17
16
11
(8)
6
(6)
(19)
4
10
12
8
33
1
2
3
(30)
15
13
20
(13)
(16)
(18)
(13)
(36)
19
7
10
8
17
(21)
Obama
53.64 %
372
38.2
42.2
44.0
46.6
58.4
55.6
58.8
90.6
59.6
53.6
48.0
71.0
36.0
59.6
48.6
57.0
42.4
45.0
43.0
54.2
60.0
59.0
58.8
56.4
46.4
53.4
47.4
41.2
52.6
55.6
56.4
54.4
67.0
51.0
52.2
52.0
35.2
57.8
57.2
61.0
44.0
42.6
41.4
44.6
32.8
60.4
54.0
55.4
54.8
59.4
40.0
Obama
100.0 %
367.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
4.8
100.0
99.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
96.1
16.4
100.0
0.0
100.0
24.6
100.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
98.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.9
3.9
95.2
10.1
0.0
89.9
99.7
99.9
98.4
100.0
68.8
85.9
83.6
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
100.0
97.5
99.6
99.1
100.0
0.0
Percent
14.1
10.5
9.6
1.4
1.0
5.7
1.6
4.4
0.9
20.9
3.7
20.9
4.5
0.9
Rank
3
4
5
11
12
6
10
8
13
1
9
1
7
13
Final Kerry
51.75 %
337
42.0
39.8
48.8
50.5
55.8
50.8
56.5
86.3
57.8
52.3
46.5
52.5
38.3
57.0
41.3
54.5
39.3
42.8
49.0
58.3
56.3
70.8
54.3
55.0
47.3
49.3
41.3
37.3
50.5
51.5
56.0
50.5
60.0
49.3
42.5
52.3
36.3
54.5
53.8
62.0
44.3
46.5
49.3
40.0
29.3
58.3
48.5
55.0
49.5
54.8
33.5
JK Unadj
52.51 %
337
42.1
41.6
44.9
45.7
60.9
50.7
63.4
91.9
61.9
51.4
42.3
58.5
32.7
57.0
40.7
51.2
37.7
40.2
44.0
56.6
60.3
66.6
55.0
56.4
49.8
49.3
38.2
37.6
53.7
57.8
58.0
53.6
65.5
49.7
35.2
54.3
33.8
53.0
55.5
63.3
46.3
36.5
43.5
42.3
28.9
68.1
50.3
57.7
40.5
52.6
33.3
Kerry
48.76 %
252
37.2
35.9
44.8
45.0
54.9
47.5
54.9
90.1
53.9
47.6
41.8
54.6
30.6
55.4
39.7
49.7
37.0
40.1
42.6
54.1
56.5
62.6
51.7
51.6
40.2
46.6
39.0
33.0
48.4
50.7
53.5
49.5
59.0
44.0
35.9
49.2
34.8
51.9
51.4
60.0
41.3
38.8
43.0
38.6
26.3
59.5
45.9
53.4
43.6
50.2
29.4
Exit Poll
0.75 %
0
0.14
1.84
(3.87)
(4.78)
5.17
(0.03)
6.92
5.69
4.10
(0.84)
(4.20)
6.03
(5.55)
(0.03)
(0.56)
(3.32)
(1.56)
(2.56)
(5.02)
(1.63)
4.01
(4.11)
0.71
1.42
2.57
0.05
(3.08)
0.32
3.22
6.25
1.96
3.14
5.48
0.48
(7.27)
2.02
(2.42)
(1.50)
1.74
1.28
2.02
(10.01)
(5.78)
2.32
(0.39)
9.83
1.75
2.71
(8.95)
(2.13)
(0.24)
Vote Cnt
( 3.0 ) %
(85)
(4.8)
(3.9)
(3.9)
(5.5)
(0.9)
(3.3)
(1.6)
3.8
(3.9)
(4.7)
(4.7)
2.1
(7.7)
(1.6)
(1.6)
(4.8)
(2.3)
(2.7)
(6.4)
(4.1)
0.2
(8.2)
(2.5)
(3.4)
(7.1)
(2.7)
(2.3)
(4.2)
(2.1)
(0.8)
(2.5)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(5.2)
(6.6)
(3.1)
(1.5)
(2.6)
(2.3)
(2.0)
(2.9)
(7.7)
(6.3)
(1.4)
(3.0)
1.3
(2.6)
(1.6)
(5.9)
(4.5)
(4.1)
Final Kerry
1.89 %
30.1
(3.8)
2.5
(4.8)
(3.9)
2.7
4.9
2.3
4.3
1.8
1.4
1.5
18.5
(2.3)
2.6
7.4
2.5
3.2
2.3
(6.0)
(4.1)
3.8
(11.8)
4.6
1.4
(0.9)
4.2
6.2
4.0
2.1
4.1
0.4
3.9
7.0
1.8
9.7
(0.3)
(1.1)
3.3
3.5
(1.0)
(0.3)
(3.9)
(7.9)
4.6
3.6
2.2
5.5
0.4
5.3
4.7
6.5
Obama
11
120
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO*
MT
NE
NV*
NH
NJ
NM*
NY
NC*
ND*
OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA*
WA
WV*
WI
WY
Sample
Poll
Final Poll
75 % UVA Projected
5-Poll Moving Average
5-poll Moving Average, 2-party
Election Model
18 National Polls
Harris
Zogby
Marist
Econ
TIPP
CBS
FOX
Dem Cor
Gallup
NBC
ABC
ARG
Pew
Nwk
ICR
LAT
Time
AP
Date
Average
2-Nov
2-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
29-Oct
26-Oct
24-Oct
21-Oct
20-Oct
Size
1720
5508
1200
1166
2903
1284
1125
1400
1018
1866
1014
3511
1258
2408
1005
817
1698
803
976
Type
LV
LV
LV
RV
LV
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV
RV
LV
LV
Kerry
47.3 %
50
47
49
49
44
46
48
48
48
47
48
49
46
45
44
48
46
49
Bush
46.9 %
47
48
48
45
45
47
45
47
46
48
47
48
45
48
46
47
51
46
Kerry
50.90 %
51.5
50.0
50.5
52.8
51.5
50.5
52.5
51.0
51.8
50.0
51.0
50.5
52.0
49.5
50.8
51.0
47.5
52.0
Bush
48.10 %
47.5
49.0
48.5
46.3
47.5
48.5
46.5
48.0
47.3
49.0
48.0
48.5
47.0
49.5
48.3
48.0
51.5
47.0
Kerry
51.3 %
51.3
51.1
51.6
51.7
51.5
51.2
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.6
50.8
50.8
50.2
50.2
na
na
na
na
Bush
47.8 %
47.8
48.0
47.5
47.4
47.6
47.9
47.8
48.2
48.0
48.4
48.3
48.3
48.9
48.9
na
na
na
na
Kerry
51.8 %
51.8
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.0
51.7
51.8
51.4
51.6
51.1
51.3
51.3
50.7
50.7
na
na
na
na
Bush
48.2 %
48.2
48.4
47.9
47.8
48.0
48.3
48.2
48.6
48.4
48.9
48.7
48.7
49.3
49.3
na
na
na
na
Diff
3.6 %
3.6
3.2
4.2
4.4
4.0
3.4
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
1.4
1.4
na
na
na
na