Dean, Clark in statistical tie Dean loses over 21 percent

[wyldwolf]

Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor who pulled away from the Democratic field in early December, lost his lead over No. 2 Wesley Clark, the former NATO commander, in a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll conducted Friday through Monday.

Dean slipped from a 21-percentage-point lead over Clark to a 4-percentage- point gap, effectively a tie within the poll's 5-percentage-point margin of error.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0107dems-poll070.html

[Clark Campaigner]

1. we're moving up steadily

to win the nomination when all is said and done.

[NV1962]

2. Life is good

Up and away!

[wyldwolf]

3. This is why there are so many "Clark is a neocon" posts up this morning...

Apparently Dean, and thus some of his supporters, are losing it.

Say - do you suppose that strategy plan Dean concocted to attack Clark was also extented to Dean's supporters?

[NV1962]

4. Yup - secretly through the front pages

LOL

[helleborient]

5. Anyone notice Clark has gained only 3, Dean lost 1 since Dec 5-7

And the lead was only 8 Dec. 5-7

Over the last month

Dean 25-31-27-24

Clark 17-10-12-20

Kerry 7-10-11-7

This is a poll that has fluctuated wildly in the last month.

The race certainly seems fluid, according to this poll.

The national margin of error is 3, according to the poll, not 5 like reported here. The 5 margin of error is for the results for half-samples on some of the demographic items.

[BootinUp]

9. Lets just post the chart

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040107.asp

Easier to understand with the visual for some of us.

[helleborient]

12. So what happened earlier when Clark lost 7 pts. in 1 week??

Just curious...

[BootinUp]

17. Obviously Dean

Had a big bounce there, Was that when Gore endorsed him? Clark is still coming up on the radar as far as name recognition, knowledge of his positions, just getting to know him.

[helleborient]

6. For full information on the poll

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-01-06-poll.htm

[Romberry]

7. Gallup? LOL!!!

Dude! Gallup? Come on! Gallup is a joke and has been for several years. When Matt Drudge gets around to doing a Google on Wesley Clark + Dyncorp + sex, it's all over. The General is toast.

[Skywalker]

8. National Poll?

Aren't nominees chosen on a state to state basis rather than on a national level? I personally do not put much credence to national polls in regards to choosing a Presidential candidate. Isn't how well each of nine does in each progressive state have more of an impact on who gets nominated?

And who cares how well anyone does against Bush before Primaries start? I would like to think the numbers would go up in match between the chosen Democrat and Bush. The support is so fractured among the group that there can't possibly be an accurate match up.

Oh well, before then speculation will run rampant, in the media and here as well.

Mark

[helleborient]

10. Yes, Dean opponents once said national polls mean nothing

[BootinUp]

11. You raise a good point

Nobody is claiming victory yet I hope. But the trend is hard to ignore, especially when coupled with Clarks gains in NH:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[helleborient]

13. You mean Clark's NH fluctuations between 12 and 14? (n/t)

[BootinUp]

15. No, that is only for one week

ARG(12/15-17)--45%---20%-----8%
---------------Dean--Kerry---Clark
Clark is up from 8% to 14% in 3 weeks.
Dean is Down 7%
Kerry is Down 6%

[Skywalker]

14. Clark is...

...not running a campaign in Iowa. Will that have an adverse effect on him for the rest of the primaries? If he places lower than second in New Hampshire? Will he get back on track if he takes South Carolina?

These are all questions that will be answered as time passes.

I think too many people put too much emphasis on polls. In my 43+ years of existence on the little ball o' mud, I have never been asked to participate in a political poll. Maybe it's because I am not a registered Repub or a Dem, but Independent and live in a state that no one cares about - denial (just kidding I'm in Vermont, of course).

Mark

[Cheswick2.0]

16. I do not believe this poll... It's the "lets not count the votes poll"

there is no reason for that drastic a change.

[Joe the Revelator]

18. Its a vast left wing conspiracy!!!!!!

:tinfoilhat:

[Forkboy]

19. You'd be better off not believing any polls

like me :)

[BeatleBoot]

20. Lesson #1 of Politics

Good, scientific polls don't lie.

If anyone thought this thing wasn't going to get close at the end, well they were naive.

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. Nice way to start my day!

I'll be smiling all day long. Thanks for posting this....each day is better than the day before.