first read pours water on Drudges love affair with yesterdays gallup

[gabeana]

*** What’s “likely” and what isn’t: Of course, any changes in the storyline are bound to become big news, and that’s why Drudge’s “Gallup Shock: 49 Obama, 47 McCain With Likely Voters” is getting lots of buzz today. But here’s a bit of cold water on that. First, this comes from Gallup’s Daily Tracking poll, and Obama is up here among registered voters by six points (49%-43%). Second, Gallup is also now presenting two “likely voter” models -- 1) a traditional one that essentially assumes an electorate like that from 2004 and 2) an expanded one that assumes a bigger turnout, which we’re all expecting. Obama’s lead yesterday was two points in the traditional model (49%-47%) and six points in the expanded version (51%-45%), which essentially equals the score among registered voters.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx