Out Of The Gutter by E.J. Dionne, Jr.

[babylonsister]

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=058940de-d810-4d73-a004-31c91214f19c

Out Of The Gutter by E.J. Dionne, Jr.
McCain can play to the base by talking about Ayers and increased taxation all he wants, but it's not going to work this year.
Post Date October 17, 2008

snip//

Going into the debate, McCain was in a kind of strategic gridlock. To make the campaign a contest once again, he must arouse new doubts about Obama. But by hammering Obama, McCain seems only to be undercutting his own image. This Catch-22 renders his task Herculean. McCain must get voters to see him as steadier, more positive and more likable--even as he makes his assaults on Obama stick.

This will not be easy in the coming weeks, as Wednesday's performance suggested. A New York Times-CBS News poll released on the eve of the debate found that McCain's favorable ratings had slipped badly since mid-September. Then, McCain was viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 37 percent. Now, the balance is 36 percent positive and 41 percent negative. In the same period, Obama's net positive ratings have only risen.

The poll asked voters if their opinion of McCain had changed for the better or for the worse in "the past couple of weeks." Only 7 percent said their view had changed in a positive direction; 21 percent said it had moved in a negative direction. Nearly a quarter of those who said their view of McCain had worsened cited his attacks on Obama as the reason for their change of heart; a fifth mentioned his selection of Sarah Palin as running mate.

What's striking about the past month is that the great American middle has shifted Obama's way. Recent polls by The Post and ABC News, Gallup, and Pew suggest that Obama's gains since mid-September have been especially large among whites, particularly white men, and also among independents and moderates. At this crucial juncture, the contours of the 2008 contest are remarkably similar to those of the 2006 midterm elections that ended with a Democratic victory. Strikingly--and no doubt unintentionally--McCain echoed the Democrats' 2006 campaign theme when he said that voters want the country to move in "a new direction." That's McCain's problem.

McCain tried hard Wednesday to paint Obama as a big-spending liberal who hangs around with radicals. But ideology may matter less to voters this year than temperament, and in this downturn, conservatism may be even more suspect than liberalism. In assailing Obama from the right, McCain may only have deepened the problems he already has.

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