blueinindiana
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:19 PM
Original message |
Pennsylvania will decide the election |
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Whoever wins PA will win the election.
Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Florida will most likely go McCain
Obama will not be able to turn enough Red States blue from 2004 to secure the nomination without PA.
PA is GROUND ZERO!
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DarthDem
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message |
1. Well, If It's That Simple |
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Then consider the election over. In Obama's favor. And yes, I'm in Pennsylvania.
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The Velveteen Ocelot
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:20 PM
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2. And you know this... how? |
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I love these ABSOLUTELY POSITIVE predictions... :rofl:
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iceman66
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:21 PM
Response to Original message |
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Florida is not looking too bad at the moment.
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Danger Mouse
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:21 PM
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4. I'd say all four of the states you named are within reach for Obama. |
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PA is absolutely critical for McCain. Not so much for Obama.
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Left Is Write
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:21 PM
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5. To secure the nomination? I think he's got the nomination locked. |
WeDidIt
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:21 PM
Response to Original message |
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I don't concede any of the four you name.
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Ikonoklast
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:22 PM
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Marsala
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:22 PM
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8. Nah. There's a strong chance that we'll get North Carolina and/or Missouri |
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But if we somehow lost Pennsylvania, we probably would be doing very lousy in the battleground states. So your point stands. Pennsylvania will decide the election, and so we have a 90% or better chance of winning.
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demokatgurrl
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:22 PM
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9. Can you elaborate? Source? Data? n/t |
Motown_Johnny
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:27 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
18. kinda hard to source speculation.. but I assume it is simply the existing EV map plus McCain pulling |
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out of Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa.
So. It would seem that PA is the key (stone state)
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tekisui
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:22 PM
Response to Original message |
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Obama can win without PA. But, he will win PA, and the election.
McCain could win PA and still lose, but he won't.
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Motown_Johnny
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:23 PM
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11. It seems that the main concern among DUers over PA is that the paperless voting machines can be |
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"hacked" so that McCain or his repug thugs can steal the state and hence the presidency
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BumRushDaShow
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
15. The Philadelphia machines produce a paper printout. n/t |
DarthDem
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
21. I'm Tired of this Particular Concern |
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The Ed Rendell machine is in full control of this state. The Secretary of State (actually called the Secretary of the Commonwealth) is Pedro Cortes, a young, energetic Latino Dem. I'm not sure who's plannning to hack these machines, but it won't be easy with these guys in charge. Concern unnnnnnnnnnnnnfounded!
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meow2u3
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #21 |
34. Whoever might be hacking those machines |
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will either get caught or be flipping votes from McLame to Obama :evilgrin:
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Thrill
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:34 PM
Response to Reply #11 |
27. What happened in 06 then? |
Motown_Johnny
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #27 |
30. I'm not saying I agree with it, I was summarizing |
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Honestly, I don't know enough about it to form an opinion
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Bucky
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:24 PM
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12. Nope. Frankly, Obama could lose PA & still absorb the loss. |
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I don't expect him to lose there, but it's not a game changer by itself. McCain needs Pennsylvania for his double-bank-shot chance at winning. Obama has a little more wiggle room than that.
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Drunken Irishman
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:25 PM
Response to Original message |
13. Maybe not, but Obama will carry Nevada. |
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Edited on Tue Oct-21-08 08:26 PM by Drunken Irishman
And if he does that, he wins 270-268.
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DarthDem
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:32 PM
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23. That's Kerry (- PA) + IA, NM, CO, VA, NV |
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. . . just for clarification. :-) Right? Not an implausible scenario. Actually, the least plausible part of it is losing Pennsylvania.
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Drunken Irishman
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:58 PM
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Top Cat
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:25 PM
Response to Original message |
14. We can still win without PA..... |
featherman
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:26 PM
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16. Nah... so way off not worth answering. Silly stuff but glad you're concerned |
DaveinMD
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:26 PM
Response to Original message |
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is going to win North Carolina and Missouri as well. Really, I think the only states on the list he'll lose are Ohio and Florida.
And regardless, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia are enough without PA.
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redstate_democrat
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:28 PM
Response to Original message |
19. Missouri and Ohio are definitely Obama's. |
Capt. America
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Tue Oct-21-08 09:43 PM
Response to Reply #19 |
39. I live in Ohio and I wouldn't count on that! Most of Ohio is Northern Kentucky. |
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Also, I think McCain will win Missouri by less than 10000 votes.
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Zynx
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:28 PM
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20. That's if you assume a nationally tied election. |
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I don't. Obama wins 370 EVs.
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ShadowLiberal
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:31 PM
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22. It's too soon to say those states are lost to Obama, most polls there are within the margin of error |
Cali_Democrat
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:33 PM
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Thrill
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:33 PM
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25. I don't buy the Missouri is likely going to McCain. |
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and I live in NC. I think that it will be too close to call for a while Election Night.
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kevin881
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:33 PM
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26. no. VA will go Obama, as will NC and FL. PA won't matter, though it will go Obama as well. -nt |
debbierlus
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:34 PM
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28. Well, then put a fork in it, it's done. |
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Blue state. Ain't going to McCain...
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RollWithIt
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:35 PM
Response to Original message |
29. 1 hr lines in Bonita Springs Florida on day 1 AND day 2 of early voting DISAGREE |
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This election is going to be a landslide.
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SoonerPride
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:38 PM
Response to Original message |
31. Obama is gonna win 373 Electoral Votes |
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his is going to be an historic/landslide election.
The ground game, money game, organization effort, mood of the country, energized and rabid base, demoralized opposition, 8 year malaise, economic downturn, all of it, every single thing points to a fucking blowout.
Pennsylvania will go for Obama. Florida will go for Obama. Virginia will go for Obama. Colorado will go for Obama. New Hampshire will go for Obama. Ohio will go for Obama. Indiana will go for Obama. Nevada will go for Obama. Minnesota will go for Obama. North Carolina will go for Obama.
It is over. Enjoy the next two weeks.
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DeepBlueDem
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Tue Oct-21-08 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #31 |
42. Ive said this since last year.No matter who gets the Dem nom |
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Hillary or Obama, Florida is going Blue..
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Meshuga
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:40 PM
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32. What about Virginia? PA is useless to McCain without Virginia. |
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And I feel good about Obama's chances in VA.
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Chloroplast
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:46 PM
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33. McCain is giving up on everything for PA for one solitary reason. |
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If he can win PA, he'd try and challenge 2004 GOP states that went to Obama. Turning smaller states like CO and NM back to red is easier if he's won a consistently blue state that's heavy in electoral votes.
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Sarah Ibarruri
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:57 PM
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alcibiades_mystery
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:58 PM
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37. Pfffffft...PA is McCain's only desperate chance |
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Edited on Tue Oct-21-08 09:00 PM by alcibiades_mystery
And he has no chance in PA: Zero.
Only idiots believe McCain can win PA at this point. Idiots and concern trolls.
It's like saying Obama's only chance is Georgia. Oh no, wait, no it isn't. Obama is closer to Mccain in georgia than Mccain is in PA.
This is just dumb: dumb Democrats falling for the same old Rovian "We're gonna win California and New Jersey" hype. It's stupid. McCain's finished.
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Sarah Ibarruri
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Tue Oct-21-08 08:59 PM
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38. This race will not be a tie, so forget it. nt |
rug
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Tue Oct-21-08 09:45 PM
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40. Well, then, it's a good thing I'm here. |
Supersedeas
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Tue Oct-21-08 10:01 PM
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treestar
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Tue Oct-21-08 10:03 PM
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43. Then Obama is going to win |
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