The Daily Widget, Thur 10/23 – O-378, M-160 – South Dakota Moves Left; Watching Florida

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Thu Oct-23-08 06:35 AM
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The Daily Widget, Thur 10/23 – O-378, M-160 – South Dakota Moves Left; Watching Florida

1. ANALYSIS

Twenty state polls were released yesterday, a lean-red batch of polls for the second day in a row. Ten of these polls were conducted in swing states, only 3 in blue states and 7 in red states. And for the second day in a row, John McCain loses a bit of ground. Did I mention that McCain has a red state problem? It’s no wonder why he’s spending time in red states.

Speaking of red states, a new poll commissioned by the Argus Leader for South Dakota shows McCain’s lead there dropping to 7 points over Barack Obama. John Kerry and Al Gore both lost in South Dakota by 22 points, but Bill Clinton lost in South Dakota by only 4 points both times. We can expect McCain to win South Dakota this year, but closer to the margins seen in the 1990’s.

Florida has been cresting a little to the right in the past week, but it continues to maintain its standing in the Lean Obama column. Today Florida stands at a +0.2 point lead for Obama, on the verge of tipping red. Below is a screenshot from my monster spreadsheet showing all five polls released for Florida in the past week.

It’s a very good thing that we haven’t put all our eggs in the Florida basket this year, as we did in 2004 and 2000.

Obama’s lead in the national polls continues to grow. The daily trackers have climbed back to a 7 point lead for Obama on average, while the periodic national polls are averaging at a 9.1 point lead for Obama. Taken all together, Obama’s overall lead in the national polls stands at +8.4 points (51.0% to 42.6%).

Only 12 days remain!

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Alaska

Obama 42, McCain 53 (Moore Research, 10/19, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
Florida

Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Kentucky

Obama 44, McCain 52 (Rasmussen, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine

Obama 54, McCain 39 (Pan Atlantic SMS, 10/16, +/- 4.9, 400 LV)
Maine

Obama 54, McCain 39 (Survey USA, 10/20, +/- 3.9, 642 LV)
Nevada

Obama 49, McCain 43, B2, N3 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 3.5, 700 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 48, McCain 46 (WSOC-TV, 10/21, +/- 4.4, 500 LV)
North Carolina

Obama 51, McCain 46, Barr 2 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 634 LV)
Ohio

Obama 49, McCain 44, B2, N3 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 3.5, 737 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Muhlenberg College, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 594 LV)
South Dakota

Obama 41, McCain 48 (Mason-Dixon, 10/15, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Tennessee

Obama 42, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/16, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia

Obama 47, McCain 45 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Virginia

Obama 51, McCain 44, B2, N3 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 647 LV)
Washington

Obama 55, McCain 36 (Elway Poll, 10/19, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)
West Virginia

Obama 41, McCain 42 (Rainmaker Media Group, 10/15, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 41, McCain 53, N2, M1 (CNN/Time, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 647 LV)
West Virginia

Obama 43.5, McCain 49.2 (Orion Strategies, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 51, McCain 38 (WI Public Radio, 10/17, +/- 5.0, 400 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Research 2000, 10/21, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

EARLY VOTING RESULTS

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