CNN -- Bush only 2% bounce

[DU9598]

The new CNN USA Today Gallup poll had Bush at 49% and Kerry at 48%, just now on inside politics. However, they said Bush got only a 2% bounce which is 4% less than average.

Anyone else see this and confirm?

[Doosh]

1. ok, on 3

1

2

3


BAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Indiana_Dem]

2. Why do some other threads say

Bush 52% Kerry 45%?

Is that just the Gallop and your numbers are CNN USA Today Gallop combined?

[imax2268]

3. exactly...

what is with the different numbers...?

[Connie_Corleone]

6. The 49-48% is among registered voters

[lancdem]

10. That's great news

Ruy Teixeira says polls of likely voters now are dubious.

[lancdem]

8. One is likely voters and the other registered voters

I'm guessing. I also suspect they oversample Repukes in their likely voter sample, though not as much as Time and Newsweek.

[lancdem]

4. That's great!

The 49-48 must refer to registered voters, because others have posted 52-45. Even so, we can say Bush went from an 11-point lead to a 7-point lead in two days.

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. Well, I called for a negative bounce within MoE...

...so I was closer than either Time or Newsweek.

[Sagan]

7. I'm pretty happy with things thus far...

My worst nightmare was Kerry leading up to mid-October and then the media whores doing a "comeback kid" treatment on Chimpy.

[Deja Q]

9. What's the average?

"average" being 6% bounce (in which case the guy meant to say 4 points and not percent, or does he mean 2% being 4% on average means the ultimate bounce is that much more negligible?!

[59millionmorons]

11. Remember this

No incumbent who served his full term in Gallup poll history has ever won re-election when he was not leading by atleast 9 points by September since Roosevelt in 1944 when he only lead by two. Thats 6 out of 7 full term incumbents who had a 9 point lead or more by this time who have won. The three who didnt have lost. Bush is now only tied. Remember back then they did not use likely voters only registered.

Caviat-Truman was down in 1948, but he took over after the death of Roosevelt. Gallup called that race for Dewey(Dewey lead in Sept was by 9). Well we know what happened there.

Caviat-Ford also was not a full term president.

INCUMBENT WINNERS-
1940-Roosevelt lead by 9.(Roosevelt won)
1944-Roosevelt lead by 2.)Roosevelt won)
1956-Eisenhower lead by 11. (Eisenhower won)
1964-Johnson lead by 30.(Johnson won)
1972-Nixon lead by 28 points.(Nixon won)
1984-Reagan lead by 21.(Reagan won)
1996-Clinton lead by 21.(Clinton won)

INCUMBENT LOSERS-
1980-Carter lead Reagan 44-40(Carter lost)
1976-Carter lead Ford 47-45 (Ford lost)(not a full term incumbent)
1992-Clinton lead Bush by 9 (bush lost)
2004-Bush and Kerry tied 47-48 (?????)

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1255
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1249
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1252
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1246
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1237
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1234

[Stephanie]

12. Also, a Clinton pollster demonstrated that the incumbent's job approval

The incumbent's job approval rating always precisely reflects his final vote percentage. I forget who it was - he spoke on C-Span. He had charts and he could lay the job approval rating over the actual vote-count and it was always identical.

[papau]

13. 2% bounce on 50-45 prior is 52 to 45, not as bad - but not good - but also

not permanent.

:-)

[Frodo]

14. Not permanent, but worrisome.

It means we've got a long road to hoe.

EVERY candidate up by five or more in the post Labor Day Gallup poll has gone on to sit in the Oval Office.

I think only one who was behind AT ALL ever came back to win (Truman I think).

BTW - I LOVE how Gallup is suddenly the "gold standard" again after weeks of being completely disregarded.

[sonicx]

15. golden to who?

Gallup was all over the place in 2000.



no poll should either give fear or comfort. We have to keep it up til Nov 2 either way.