Prop 8 a Toss-Up, by Nate Silver

[jefferson_dem]

Prop 8 a Toss-Up
from FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right by [e-mail] (Nate Silver)

A 'yes' vote on California Proposition 8 would amend the state's constitution to prohibit gay marriage. A 'no' vote would maintain the constitution, which the California Supreme Court ruled in May provides equal protection for gay marriage.

SurveyUSA and PPIC have new numbers out on the issue, with SurveyUSA having the gay marriage ban leading by 3 points, and PPIC having it trailing by 8 points. Field should have a poll out on the issue sometime next week.



Both the PPIC and SurveyUSA polls have Barack Obama leading by large (20+ point) margins, so I'm not sure that opponents of the measure can count on some sort of turnout surge above and beyond what is already reflected in the polls. There are evidently fair numbers of Obama/'Yes on 8' tickets, especially among the state's black and Latino populations.

Ballot measures are notoriously hard to poll, so we really have no idea where this thing is at, although it seems fair to say that it's chances of passing -- after a heavy advertising campaign by the Yes on 8 people -- are better than they were a couple of months ago.

There are also a couple of X-factors to keep in mind:

<SNIP>

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/prop-8-toss-up.html

[ej510]

1. From what I have heard locally, No on 8 was winning.

[ej510]

2. If true this is royally fucked up. Why can't people stay of someone else's

personal life.

[Ian David]

3. Oh, no! The graph looks like a Jesus Fish!