Good analyses of the polls

[central scrutinizer]

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/22/in-which-i-write-of-paint-continuing-to-dry/#more-1956

There’s just so many posts like this a guy can write. Obama is still crushing McCain. Still. Crushing. McCain. The Popular Meta-margin is approximately Obama +7.5%. It would take that much shift in state polls to make the Median EV Estimator a 269-269 dead heat. The national margin is Obama +7.0+/-1.1% (n=10, surveys spanning 10/17-21). These measures are consistent.

The recent downtick in the Median EV Estimator comes from to the graininess of the Electoral College. In particular, Ohio and Florida are large and hotly contested states. A similar thing happened in June and July, with Florida-sized jumps. But the Meta-margin remains large because in other key states, the margins are stable. To see all the details, see our semi-crunched data here, derived from the Pollster.com feed. Each row contains: Dem win probability (%), median margin in %, win prob with Obama +2%, win prob with McCain +2%, state name. There’s nothing good for McCain here.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20081021_3912.php

One of the most unsettling aspects of this campaign is that for an election cycle so turbulent, with so many surprising twists and turns, over the last few days it suddenly has had the feel of concrete setting. Just seven or eight weeks ago, Sen. Barack Obama had a lead over Sen. John McCain, but it hardly seemed sure; we wondered, is this lead real, is it durable?

As things are going now, this election would appear to be on a track to match Bill Clinton's 1992 5.6 percent margin over President George H.W. Bush, the question is whether it gets to Bush's 1988 7.7 percent win over Michael Dukakis or Clinton's 8.5 percent win over Robert Dole in 1996.

Maybe some cataclysmic event occurs in the next two weeks that changes the trajectory of this election, but to override these factors, it would have to be very, very big.

[leftofthedial]

1. Don't be too cocky.

the repuke election fraud machine is worth at least 7.5% of the vote.

[ellenfl]

2. my sis just told me that the pollsters are now saying

all of their polls have been wrong and mccain is actually leading. anyone else hear that?

NOW it's getting scary.

ellen fl