MSNBC/Chuck Todd vs. Reality: Maps

[dubyaD40web]

Over the past 3 weeks or so, MSNBC's electoral map continues to show:

Obama - 264
McCain - 163

While other's in the MSM like http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/">CNN are finally showing Obama over the 270 needed, Chuck Todd and MSNBC continue to show their viewers it's a horserace. Maybe that's a good thing so we don't get cocky. But come on Chuck, use logic. At the very least, make Virginia blue. Poll after poll shows it's solidly for Obama.

Here is today's screen shot of http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/#map">MSNBC's
electoral map:

Obama - 264
McCain - 163



Using logic and poll data, I made a new map that is identical to MSNBC's but put Virginia in Obama's column.



Obama - 277
McCain - 163

See Chuck, it's not that hard.

And just for fun, I made a worst case scenario map. Obama STILL wins.



Obama - 273
McCain - 265

As you can see, I purposely gave VA to McCain though it is solidly for Obama. The tossups are NV, MO, IN, OH, NC, and FL. I gave them to McCain just for fun too.

McCain has a lot of catching up to do. There's not enough time. So come on MSNBC, please stop making this sound like a horserace.

Update:

I wanted to add that I agree MSNBC is being conservative with their map. I can understand that after getting burned in 2000 and 2004 they want to be cautious. But my only point is recognizing Virgina and the polls there. I went to http://www.electoral-vote.com/">Electoral-Vote.com
and noticed Obama has a +7% lead in New Hampshire and a +7% lead in Virgina. When looking at the MSNBC map, they show New Hampshire in Obama's column but not Virgina.

Just sayin'

[aasleka]

1. McCain needs to win 8 of the Obama leaning or solid states

Virginia
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
North Carolina
Florida
Colorado
New Mexico

If he misses one he loses

[cliffordu]

2. Dayam, that fact makes me all hot.

[MJkcj]

3. So how many of those can he steal?

We know that things in florida are a mess and Ohio has been stolen before so I am ot taking that for granted.. I live in MD and have been campaigning in VA and I still see a LOT of Mccain signs an bumper stickers.... and if Mccain is able to steal Pennsylvania....?

Just saying....

[Kira]

4. what happens if

McCain wins Penn.

[GOPNotForMe]

5. I'll just say that MSNBC has said that their map is not based just on polling, the way others are.

I've heard Chuck Todd say that their map takes polling into account as well as historical trends, how Democratic a state was in the past, advertising amounts in the campaigns, ground game, etc. I still think all of those factors as this point should at LEAST lead to VA and CO being labeled Lean Obama, but maybe they are privy to data I am not. Or they are just scared of getting burned again as someone else said.

[Kira]

6. In some ways its good they are presenting it this way

We want everyone to go out and vote. If they think it is going to be a landslide they might be lazy and not vote!